You are right. I had my mea culpa moment. Instead of riffing off the top of my head, I should have reached out first. Doing so afterwards, I realized I was way-off and admitted it, and agree that there's no way we'd even send a top mare to him at anywhere close to six figures. Waste of a season until proven.Admin wrote:Wow, HB. I can't imagine CC filling a book at dime more than $50k. Even at that price, I wouldn't be one looking to breed to him. Excellent racehorse, but that pedigree is going to make a lot of Breeders want him to prove himself now as a stallion before they'll breed to him.Horsebagger wrote:I personally can't get a feel yet on where this stallion's fee gets set when all is said and done. Lot's of variables I'm not privy to that will go into the equation.
-I don't think they likely had to pay a lot to acquire the horse to begin with, so there's not a big number out there to recoup through stallion fees. Acquisition recovery is almost always the primary objective in setting a first year fee, imo.
-How much does the windfall in racing purse winnings off set the profit? Often (like American Pharoah) the breeder wasn't in the waterfall of racing profits like we have here. So does Taylor Made focus on making this horse a long term stallion play and price him affordably or try to maximize profits immediately in years 1-2 by throwing out a big fee target and negotiate off of any interest at that level?
-How many mares are lined up through Taylor Made's client's and now China Horse Club to go to him initially? The more committed, the more likely they push the fee higher. My instincts tell me that they have some, but not an overwhelming number, even though TM is primarily a broodmare farm. Since UBS passed, they haven't had a high priced stallion in their shed they needed to support. Are those mares still there and those owners committed to this stallion at whatever fee?
-Although he's coming with a pretty damn impressive racing record, his bloodlines are still what they are. Pulpit sire line is quality, but the dam side will always be a problem in recruiting mares, imo. If his dam was quality, why was she in California breeding to Lucky Pulpit?
So in making an educated guess, i'll cast a wide net and say he could be anywhere between $100,000 and $200,000 ('wow, thanks HB') and say $125,000 as a target over/under ('you're welcome').
Interested to hear other's thoughts.
Side note....I'll add Medaglia D'oro to the list of current stallions in line for a bump above the $150,000. To at least $175,000, maybe $200,000. He'll still get a full book of quality mares at that number.
And add Street Sense to the list of those getting lowered.
Indirect word I got is $30,000 - $50,000 IF he goes to the shed this winter which makes a lot more sense than the opinion of yours truly.
