The Breeders' Cup Picks and Analysis Thread

[HB1994]

Race 4 #2 ONE MAGIC PHILLY
Phil D'Amato
Antonio Fresu
10/1 on the morning line.

Will fund the rest of my BC day!

I think she made have had a shot if she hadn’t gotten stuck behind a wall of horses.

[katmandu]

The Filly and Mare Sprint

Lastly... why not Soul of an Angel? I mean, I know why not- she's a closer on a speed-favoring racetrack in a relatively paceless race. But she's also a filly who wants one turn and has, checks note, beaten Randomized and run Idiomatic to a head this year. Is she better than those mares? Absolutely not! Not even close! But she's a mare who makes the best of favorable circumstances and will appreciate the distance, and how terrible would it feel to get beaten by a 15-1 shot who almost beat Idiomatic this year?

If I get nothing else today, at least I have this! Phew...

Tessa takes a flyer out of the gate! Great call.

Society was brave, it looked like she and Scylla had some contact coming down the stretch.

[Tessablue]

Tessa takes a flyer out of the gate! Great call.

Society was brave, it looked like she and Scylla had some contact coming down the stretch.

Thank you! I took a beating yesterday and needed that, haha. Society was really good, widest off that hot pace and never gave up. Pleasant stepped way up in class and showed she belonged as well.

All over Cogburn and Star of Mystery in the next, then singled to Thorpedo Anna like everyone else. Fingers crossed!

[Flanders]

The Filly and Mare Sprint

Lastly... why not Soul of an Angel? I mean, I know why not- she's a closer on a speed-favoring racetrack in a relatively paceless race. But she's also a filly who wants one turn and has, checks note, beaten Randomized and run Idiomatic to a head this year. Is she better than those mares? Absolutely not! Not even close! But she's a mare who makes the best of favorable circumstances and will appreciate the distance, and how terrible would it feel to get beaten by a 15-1 shot who almost beat Idiomatic this year?

If I get nothing else today, at least I have this! Phew...

Good pick! My imaginary trifecta finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Really surprised that Pleasant actually ran that well, she only had one other race this year. I only picked her because of Honest Lady.

[Tessablue]

Good pick! My imaginary trifecta finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Really surprised that Pleasant actually ran that well, she only had one other race this year. I only picked her because of Honest Lady.

Thank you! And nice picks yourself, I didn't notice Honest Lady back there, no wonder she's so fast!

[Tessablue]

Totally whiffed on the pace for the Classic... Derma with blinkers-on and working lights out was the x-factor there. Certainly didn't expect Mixto to be up with it too. You win some, you lose some... glad everyone came home safe, and the 3yos were as good as they've been all year.

[othybat_99]

Totally whiffed on the pace for the Classic... Derma with blinkers-on and working lights out was the x-factor there. Certainly didn't expect Mixto to be up with it too. You win some, you lose some... glad everyone came home safe, and the 3yos were as good as they've been all year.

About time Sierra Leone gets a win lol

[Tessablue]

I took Sierra Leone out of my pick 5 at the last moment to save money on the ticket, let's place bets on how much that will come back to haunt me lol.

[lurkey mclurker]

this pretty much summed up what i thought of most of the japanese horses... aside from a few surprises (derma ) the ones i figured would be in the thick of things did pretty well (shahryar, forever young). the 2-yr-olds were a giant question mark, for all they might have looked good in japan.

https://x.com/racingKilns/status/1852930902902669327

Moê @racingKilns

17.
Thoughts on JPN Juvenile Performance
With this year’s Breeders’ Cup concluded, it’s a good time to reflect on the system. On Friday, NBC’s announcers noted how Japanese juveniles might not be ready for this level of competition, given their later debut schedule — they don’t typically start racing until June of their 2-year-old year and don’t compete in graded races until nearly the year’s end. This was evident on the BC track, where Japanese juveniles faced a tough barrier, appearing almost like “babies” compared to their more seasoned counterparts. So, should the system change?

Balancing this is tricky, as it could lead to an overemphasis on breeding early-maturing horses. This trend is already visible in European and, especially, American racing, where numerous graded juvenile races drive the focus on quick returns. In simple terms, these horses race young, retire early, and head straight to breeding barns for fast profit. While racing ultimately aims to identify top breeding prospects, over-prioritizing this approach can undermine the sport’s essence. And because early-maturing horses tend to produce similar offspring, it perpetuates a cycle.

I personally think there is no need for intentional aim. Rather than setting a rigid goal, like Japan’s quest for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, this year’s juvenile participation feels more like a showcase of possibilities. Now, Japanese owners have more choices if they believe their juvenile has early potential but lacks an outlet within Japan. The globalization of horse racing has opened up more avenues for proving talent beyond national borders.
All roads lead to Rome, but not all roads need to be the same.

[Tessablue]

I disagree with the "horses who start later last longer" notion, because plenty of studies have showed that working and racing at 2 has positive effects on bone development, but clearly Japan's approach works and there's no need to change an entire country's industry just to target a single event. I think, just like with the Derby, it'll be a learning process as these trainers adjust their approach every year.

The one thing this weekend really taught me was that, as tachyon mentioned in another thread, they have a serious jockey problem. I thought the ride on Forever Young wasn't bad- he tried the early pace and then very wisely backed off- but Lemaire in particular is sadly a liability in these American races. He was far too passive on Ecoro Sieg, but then had the opposite problem on Derma Sotogake. I'm really kicking myself for not seeing it coming- I figured Arthur would lay off horses, and he did, but I ignored blinkers-on Derma because I didn't think he was physically capable of injecting that sort of pace into the race (nor did I ever foresee Mixto of all horses getting involved and blowing it up further). As we've seen in the Derby, Lemaire just doesn't have a great handle on the shape of American dirt races.

I'm not sure how to address this problem, because I understand having loyalty towards riders who are fantastic on their own turf. But as City of Troy learned yesterday, there's just nothing in the world like a fast-paced American dirt race. That goes for horses and humans alike.