The Breeders' Cup Picks and Analysis Thread

[lurkey mclurker]

i would go with skippylongstocking just for the name

when my baby sister was born my grandma took my dad & aunts & me to yonkers (my dad's cousin was a trotting groom) and my dad insisted on betting a horse named [myname]'s princess, which i DID NOT WANT at all... i wanted 'baby boots'

(and not just because of the name, either, he was a gorgeous liver chestnut and seemed to my 9-yr-old eyes to have warmed up the best, but i digress)

anyway you can probly guess what happened... yeah that didn't help the relationship between me & my dad any but my horse-sense felt very justified

[Tessablue]

i would go with skippylongstocking just for the name

when my baby sister was born my grandma took my dad & aunts & me to yonkers (my dad's cousin was a trotting groom) and my dad insisted on betting a horse named [myname]'s princess, which i DID NOT WANT at all... i wanted 'baby boots'

(and not just because of the name, either, he was a gorgeous liver chestnut and seemed to my 9-yr-old eyes to have warmed up the best, but i digress)

anyway you can probly guess what happened... yeah that didn't help the relationship between me & my dad any but my horse-sense felt very justified

haha that's excellent, sometimes you just have to go with your gut!

Your story reminds me of my grandparents... my grandfather was a lifelong bettor, took it very seriously, even structured their honeymoon so he could watch Nashua run. Grandma would pick them out purely based on their looks in the post parade, and she always got the better of him. Her most famous call was Proud Clarion, but in my lifetime she also picked Charismatic in War Emblem. Good times...

(my "name" horse this year is definitely Wingspan. Love that boardgame, and have spent many many hours playing it.)

[lurkey mclurker]

sentimental picks FTW! and gonna throw in a "thanks for all your hard work" for the analyses! 辛苦了!

[Diver52]

i would go with skippylongstocking just for the name

when my baby sister was born my grandma took my dad & aunts & me to yonkers (my dad's cousin was a trotting groom) and my dad insisted on betting a horse named [myname]'s princess, which i DID NOT WANT at all... i wanted 'baby boots'

(and not just because of the name, either, he was a gorgeous liver chestnut and seemed to my 9-yr-old eyes to have warmed up the best, but i digress)

anyway you can probly guess what happened... yeah that didn't help the relationship between me & my dad any but my horse-sense felt very justified

haha that's excellent, sometimes you just have to go with your gut!

Your story reminds me of my grandparents... my grandfather was a lifelong bettor, took it very seriously, even structured their honeymoon so he could watch Nashua run. Grandma would pick them out purely based on their looks in the post parade, and she always got the better of him. Her most famous call was Proud Clarion, but in my lifetime she also picked Charismatic in War Emblem. Good times...

(my "name" horse this year is definitely Wingspan. Love that boardgame, and have spent many many hours playing it.)

My mother, who introduced me to racing (there was actually a bus on big days from my home town to Santa Anita) loved betting on grays. She finally gave it up after years of failure, when a horse named Scotland won (IIRC) the Del Mar Handicap at $32.00. Been chasing that ever since!

[Izvestia]

My sentimental pick is Next. Would love to see him win, it would just be a fun story and the horse is such a star!

[MySaladDays]

Was glad to see Skippy go for the shorter race. This horse has showed up, still racing, and if you look at the TC crowd in BEL and Preakness he ran with in 2022, it's like a yearbook of "where are they now?"

The older horse division in the U.S. is not really exemplary this year anyway, and that this guy is still racing at top levels at age 5 isn't common these days.

I hope he wins his race!

[Squeaky]

Rooting for my 2 fav greys-STG and Next. Surprised Lukas didn’t make it out to DM this year.

[Izvestia]

I’m going with Shareholder, Ecoro Sieg and Gate to Wire in the BC Juv Turf Sprint.
I never do well in this race, I don’t know half these horses, return safe!

[stark]

In the Juvy....

Race 9 #7 GAMING for Baffert with Irad up @ 8/1

Del Mar Futurity winner goes two sprints to a route today, see ya in the cashiers line.

Good luck to all, safe trip with the nation watching.

[stelladaniella]

Best of luck to everyone!!

Rooting for Nooni and Gaming!

[Izvestia]

Juv Fillies - Quickick, La Cara, Immersive
Juv Filly Turf - Lake Victoria, Scythian, May Day Ready
Juv - East Avenue, Ferocious, Chancer McPatrick
Juv Turf - Al Qudra, Zulu Kingdom, Henri Matisse

[Flanders]

Juv. Turf Sprint - Aesterius(IRE), Ecoro Sieg, Governor Sam (Just wanted to throw a jab in at the owners/trainers who think 5 starts in a year is a lot and that 6-8 starts lifetime is a lot, we got a 2yo making his 9th start of the year in this race. I did not use that horse)
Juv. Fillies - American Bikini(JPN), Immersive, Snowyte (why did I pick Snowyte? Her dad won the Juvenile as a Maiden in his 3rd start after finishing 2nd in his first 2 races)
Juv. Fillies Turf - Lake Victoria, Scythian, Heavens Gate(IRE)
Juvenile - East Avenue, Chancer McPatrick, Getaway Car
Juv. Turf - Al Qudra(IRE), Henri Matisse(IRE), Seagulls Eleven(IRE)

And Saturday:
F/M Sprint - Pleasant, Society, Scylla (what are Pleasant's chances? Probably zero but I saw her grand dam is Honest Lady and I'm a sucker)
Turf Sprint - Bradsell(GB), Cogburn, Isivunguvungu(SAF), (Would love to see South Africa get a win here since it took the horses so long to come over. I do like Big Evs but could only pick 3)
Distaff - Thorpedo Anna, Awesome Result, Raging Sea
Turf - Far Bridge, Shahryar(JPN), Rebel's Romance(IRE) (I so wanted to pick both the filly and mare but their form hasn't been what I think will win this race, wont be sad if either win)
Classic - Forever Young(JPN), City of Troy(IRE), Sierra Leone (I'd love to see Next win, I think its going to be too hot up front for him. So then I picked how does Thorpedo Anna have best chance for HOTY)
F/M Turf - War Like Goddess, Didia, Content
Sprint - Remake(JPN), Mullikin, Skelly (I had no clue what to do here)
Mile - Notable Speech (GB), Porta Fortuna(GB), Carl Spackler
Dirt Mile - Full Serrano(ARG), Domestic Product, Muth

[Tessablue]

Altogether a forgettable day of handicapping, but some thoughts on the races:

-tachyon made a good point in the News thread about Japanese riders as a potential impediment towards their chances this year, and I think that was evident in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. Ecoro Sieg broke a step slow but Lemaire seemed to completely give up afterwards. You just can't be passive against these sorts of horses in a turf sprint- get up there and let your horse run. ES got knocked pretty stoutly off-stride afterwards, and that was that.

-Immersive was bet like she was a cut above these, and she ran like it too. She's a nice enough filly and will be a deserving champion, but this field was pretty bad and they all came home excruciatingly slow. Other fillies could take control of the division if she fails to go on at three. I did not foresee Nooni blasting out there like she did, which pretty much cleared the way for everyone. American Bikini very rank early and did not enjoy the two turns; nothing her rider could have done there, i think.

-Lake Victoria looked a mile the best on paper and ran like it too. Thought Process was pretty terrible, and I'll need a few days to get over the way that finish played out. Would have had a pretty nice tri with Fiery Lucy in there if Nitrogen hadn't spoiled it, guess I chose the wrong Casse longshot to use underneath. Ouch...

-If you told me that East Avenue would go to his knees and the other riders on forward horses would immediately give up and allowed Citizen Bull to go :47 and 1:12, I would have uh, bet Citizen Bull. I suppose Citizen Bull will be installed as the early Derby favorite en route to a win in the San Vicente followed by an indefinite "couple of weeks off." One of those races that looks strong on paper, falls apart immediately, and is best moved on from quickly.

-You know you're having a day when one of your horses breaks through the gate, then your other horse has to wait in the gate and misses the break. Oh well- not sure anyone was beating Henri Mattisse either way. Aomori City certainly worth keeping an eye on as well, while Satono Carnaval had a good trip and every chance but just couldn't go forward with it.

-Regarding the Japanese horses in general, they just overall looked a bit sharp early in the race and very tired late. Most of them were coming off of minimal starts and long layoffs, so I wonder if future horses will have a bit more preparation to give them the foundation for these races. Local jockeys might be a good investment here as well- there's just no substitute for experience in these big races.

Overall, some interesting races and I'm glad everyone came home safe. On to the next one!

[lurkey mclurker]

my very unscientific and amateur wondering was, the track looks heavier to me than the dirt i'm used to in japanese racing (granted that is not a lot of races, mostly NAR and i watch clips on twitter instead of the full live like with turf), i wonder if that plays into it at all. i know the basics of composition are generally the same, with drainage & layers but IIRC there's a lot more sand on japanese tracks. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

also ofc that means nothing for the turf races

[Tessablue]

my very unscientific and amateur wondering was, the track looks heavier to me than the dirt i'm used to in japanese racing (granted that is not a lot of races, mostly NAR and i watch clips on twitter instead of the full live like with turf), i wonder if that plays into it at all. i know the basics of composition are generally the same, with drainage & layers but IIRC there's a lot more sand on japanese tracks. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

also ofc that means nothing for the turf races

Good eye! Yes, Japan's dirt is said to be a lot deeper and sandier than American tracks. Del Mar's quicker speed-favoring surface may be tough to adjust to... perhaps Belmont would be a closer comparison, if they get the BC in a couple of years.

I will say that the performance of the 2yos today does not change my evaluations for tomorrow! There are horses with proven international form running tomorrow, very different from untested 2yos from both a training and betting perspective. Looking forward to seeing how they do tomorrow.

[Northport]

Japanese dirt isnt really dirt. It’s sand. It’s ultimately safer for the horse, but it’s definitely not an automatic one to one when it comes to form transferring. It does give them a good lesson in how to handle kickback though.

[Izvestia]

F&M Sprint - Vahva, Scylla, Zeitlos
Turf Sprint - Cogburn, Ag Bullet, Bradsell
Distaff - Thorpedo Anna, Raging Sea, Sugar Fish
Turf - Rebel’s Romance, Wingspan, Far Bridge
Classic - Highland Falls, Sierra Leonne, Forever Young
F&M Turf - War Like Goddess, Content, Moira
Sprint - Gun Pilot, Straight No Chaser, Mullikin
Mile - Notable Speech, Porta Fortuna, Carl Spackler
Dirt Mile - Post Time, Domestic Product, Skippy

[stark]

Race 4 #2 ONE MAGIC PHILLY
Phil D'Amato
Antonio Fresu
10/1 on the morning line.

Will fund the rest of my BC day!

[MissNMecke]

Well, maybe my picks today will be better than yesterday's.....
F&M Sprint - Scylla, Soul of An Angel, Zeitlos
Turf Sprint - Arzak, Big Evs, Big Invasion
Distaff - Candied, Sugar Fish
Turf - Grand Sonata, Far Bridge, Shahryar
Classic - Ushba Tesoro, Sierra Leonne, Forever Young, Derma Sotogake
F&M Turf - Full Count Felicia, Didia
Sprint - Remake, Don Frankie
Mile - Carl Spackler, More Than Looks
Dirt Mile - Mufasa, Post Time, Domestic Product, Skippylongstocking

[Tessablue]

The Filly and Mare Sprint

Lastly... why not Soul of an Angel? I mean, I know why not- she's a closer on a speed-favoring racetrack in a relatively paceless race. But she's also a filly who wants one turn and has, checks note, beaten Randomized and run Idiomatic to a head this year. Is she better than those mares? Absolutely not! Not even close! But she's a mare who makes the best of favorable circumstances and will appreciate the distance, and how terrible would it feel to get beaten by a 15-1 shot who almost beat Idiomatic this year?

If I get nothing else today, at least I have this! Phew...