Who is going to move?

[Slewfan2]

I can't believe that Lane's End would EVER sell Union Rags! He is the last link that they have to Dixieland Band who was one of their four foundation sires in their start-up in the early 80's. If he ends up no longer commercially viable, I think they'll pension him right there on the grounds and let him live out his life where his sire and his grandsire lived out theirs.

I suppose that there's a possibility that, because of his Classic-winning history, they could donate him to Old Friends, but I really doubt that would ever happen. Grandpappy Dixieland Band says No, I don't think so!

They sold Honor Code - the last link to their foundation stallion, Indy.

[Flanders]

I can't believe that Lane's End would EVER sell Union Rags! He is the last link that they have to Dixieland Band who was one of their four foundation sires in their start-up in the early 80's. If he ends up no longer commercially viable, I think they'll pension him right there on the grounds and let him live out his life where his sire and his grandsire lived out theirs.

I suppose that there's a possibility that, because of his Classic-winning history, they could donate him to Old Friends, but I really doubt that would ever happen. Grandpappy Dixieland Band says No, I don't think so!

My list isn't necessarily who gets sold, its more a who I think are the most likely candidates to not be standing at a farm next year. Farms don't usually own the majority interest in a stallion, its a syndicate. So if a stallion has fallen out of favor and the syndicate gets a good offer, they can sell. But an example of one I picked last year at Lane's End is Accelerate. He wasn't sold, he was pensioned and sent to the Kentucky Horse Park. IMO, Union Rags isn't at the pensioning stage, his mares bred, stud fee and auction averages have fallen off a cliff. I don't think they are going to sell him or move him on, as I said above. Just his numbers put him on the list for me. I know this is a different farm but Union Rags stud career kind of reminds me of Forestry. Forestry stood at Taylor Made and his stud fee reached 125k at one point, then he fell out of favor. His stud fee his last year in the US was 8k, he bred 40 mares and he got sold after standing there for 15 years.

[Flanders]

*squirms in excitement*, i was just waiting for someone to restart this thread. thanks Flanders for that and for sparing me of doing the sales/RMB research.

Airdrie
copy and paste what Flanders said.

Calumet
???????? who knows with these people. i have a theory they just flip a coin or roll a dice to decide who they're sending off to auction at year's end.

Claiborne
they don't usually sell stallions, so idk if there will be any moves this year. but...
— Catholic Boy is my main bet, i'm sad because i love him but unfortunately i don't think he is really cut out for the Kentucky market;
— Demarchelier (GB), i wouldn't be too surprised if he followed Mastery to Japan.
i agree that they might pension Lea. but it's mostly because i just don't see any market having interest in him at all. so selling just wouldn't be profitable.

Coolmore
— Mendelssohn, i think his pedigree can't save him anymore especially after Justify's crazy year last year officially making him the heir to Scat Daddy's throne. maybe Japan would appreciate him, i don't see him going to a regional market;
— Mo Town probably goes off to a regional market.

Darby Dan
idk with this one. like with Claiborne, i don't really see anyone moving, but if i have to pick one, it'd be Leofric. i don't think Copper Bullet is moving because i don't think he is doing bad considering the opportunities he got.

Darley
Enticed.

Gainesway
again i don't see them moving anyone. but if they do, it has to be Tapwrit.

Hill n' Dale
— Kantharos, i have a feeling he goes to Japan. but i also wouldn't be surprised if they try to have some more patience with him (even though his stats are only going downhill);
— if he was anywhere else World of Trouble would have gotten the boot a while ago. imho the only reason they've kept him this long was the whole "HE NEEDS TO PROVE HE IS MORE THAN THE DRUGS GIVEN TO HIM" situation. i don't see him standing in Kentucky another year.

Lane's End
copy and paste what Flanders said, i also have my doubts they'd sell Union Rags. i think they will eventually but he might be safe for another year or two.
i really doubt this but i don't know how safe City of Light is (at least longterm) only siring Fierceness. it's the same situation as Tonalist. only one good runner won't keep you in Kentucky forever.

Spendthrift
*sighs* since Flanders also mentioned this, my bets for their stallions next year are National Treasure (confirmed), Seize the Grey, Dornoch, Fierceness, Arabian Knight and probably some other random(s) trained by Pletcher or Baffert. i don't see them (or any Kentucky farm) getting White Abarrio unless his second half of the year is similar to his 2023 second half of the year. regarding moves:
— Coal Front, no way he doesn't move. when your books are that small... you just don't last at Scamshit;
— i'm split with Maximus Mischief, he was so hyped by them for this year with his first 2yos and that didn't work out and like Flanders said i doubt he is getting many mares with his crazy fee. but then idk if they'd sell such a hyped up stallion even if his numbers plummet...? especially when he's by Into Mischief and who knows how long that one will live. i'm still going to write him down as one of my main bets though just because i think he is still more likely to be sold than the rest.
i agree with the others Flanders mentioned but those 2 are the ones i'm more confident about.

Three Chimneys
unfortunately, Funtastic.

WinStar
— no way Always Dreaming gets another chance. no way. he'll be off to Turkey or SK before the end of the year;
— Good Samaritan probably won't return from Chile.
idk if they'd send Take Charge Indy back yet but i also wouldn't be surprised.

Kantharos I should have noted on my list, is owned by Stonestreet. So idk if they'd send him back to Florida where he started. Because he did much better in Florida than he has in Kentucky. His first Kentucky crop was born in 2018. His six Florida crops had 7% SW, his Kentucky crops are 3% SW. That is really odd that he got worse with what should have been better mares. Not to do with anything else but I totally forgot that he only raced 3 times and didn't make it past August of his 2yo year.

I thought about City of Light, my reasoning for not putting him on the list was Fierceness is still racing so there is hype around him, plus he was 2yo Champion last year. Plus though he has only raced once, Mentee(Fierceness' brother) has hype around him.

I felt this unbelievable need to highlight how poorly the 2nd crop sires are doing overall. However like I said, I don't think they are all moving but I needed to include them for myself. I don't know what Spendthrift is going to do. They almost always bring in 4-5 stallions. I suppose they could move off an unpopular one that doesn't have foals of racing age but that is just done so rarely. And I really think its a middle finger to anyone that bred to the stallion, at least breeders know they are taking a risk breeding to a stallion standing his 3rd or 4th year. Like I'm sure its happened more than I can remember at this moment. But I can only think of 3 right now, California Chrome, Hansen and Comic Strip.

[Izvestia]

Kantharos was a big fish in FL, compared to KY. I bet the mares in FL complimented him, ie. speed.

Union Rags is confusing to me. He can produce a really good horse, especially fillies. Check out his current leading runners, all fillies except Express Train. Is he just not really a sire of sire-type attracting the big buyers/breeders? He’s not Into Mischief or Tapit, so he’s “old news”?

[Izvestia]

Maximus Mischief was never going to be the replacement of his sire, they just thought why not try??? Lightning didn’t strike twice!
His race record barely qualified him to be a stallion… his female family is, ok. He should be $2,500 not $25,000.

[Flanders]

Kantharos was a big fish in FL, compared to KY. I bet the mares in FL complimented him, ie. speed.

Union Rags is confusing to me. He can produce a really good horse, especially fillies. Check out his current leading runners, all fillies except Express Train. Is he just not really a sire of sire-type attracting the big buyers/breeders? He’s not Into Mischief or Tapit, so he’s “old news”?

The Union Rags thing is confusing to me as well. I was kind of shocked last year when his RMB was so low, that is what made me notice his sale prices. Its why I said it felt really weird typing him and putting him on my list.

I think its a combination of "what have you done for me lately" and the way the commercial breeding industry is now. Looking at his Lifetime Top Performers 7 of the 15 are from his first crop(2014) and one from his 2nd crop(2015). 4 of his G1SWs came from those first 2 crops(3 fillies/1 colt), his last coming from his 2017 crop(1 colt). He has gotten some G2/G3SWs since then. He can get nice horses just his crops have fluctuated wildly on what he produces. Like his first crop was 9% SW but since then only 2018 at 6% has came anywhere close, with many crops being 2-3%.

Within the past week I was on the JC's Fact Book and saw they had a foal crop to yearling sale ratio. Last year 39% of the 2022 crop went through yearling sales. Sure fillies can sell for a lot if they are from a spectacular female family but its usually the colts that bring the big money. Those commercial breeders want established stallions that produce Triple Crown race contenders or the brand new first year stallions that no one knows what they'll produce. I wouldn't say Union Rags is known for producing Classic Contenders. He has had 5**(see note following), with Patch being the only one that placed. Add to that he really hasn't had a superstar/top tier 3yo colt and breeders went cold on him because buyers went cold on him.

**This is just a random note, I could only think of 2 then I remembered this site that has to be almost as old as the internet itself. Is it the best site to look at? No it looks like it was made in 1996. But its very useful for this case because I could look up who ran in the Triple Crown races by year, name, sire, dam, or broodmare sire. link here in case anyone is interested: https://thetriplecrownproject.info/career.php**

Maybe the massive stud fee drop this year(it was cut in half) will bring his RMB back up. He was consistently getting 110 to 160 books of mares(160 is about max for Lanes End), until last year when it plummeted to 43. We know he can get good runners. Again I feel I need to add I really don't think they'll move him on but just felt the need to include him.

There is a reason I like to do this before the yearling sales start and RMBs come out in the fall. I think its fun and interesting to talk about and see what actually happens.

[Flanders]

Spendthrift
*sighs* since Flanders also mentioned this, my bets for their stallions next year are National Treasure (confirmed), Seize the Grey, Dornoch, Fierceness, Arabian Knight and probably some other random(s) trained by Pletcher or Baffert. i don't see them (or any Kentucky farm) getting White Abarrio unless his second half of the year is similar to his 2023 second half of the year. regarding moves:

I just thought of one I forgot about. Newgate who is a G1 by Into Mischief owned by the exact same partnership as National Treasure. Sometimes when Stonestreet is involved they go to Hill N Dale but I suppose Charlatan was different since Stonestreet bred him and stayed in, plus there were some different partners.

I wonder if Spendthrift is express building a new stallion barn as I type?

[Eohippus]

I can't believe that Lane's End would EVER sell Union Rags! He is the last link that they have to Dixieland Band who was one of their four foundation sires in their start-up in the early 80's. If he ends up no longer commercially viable, I think they'll pension him right there on the grounds and let him live out his life where his sire and his grandsire lived out theirs.

I suppose that there's a possibility that, because of his Classic-winning history, they could donate him to Old Friends, but I really doubt that would ever happen. Grandpappy Dixieland Band says No, I don't think so!

My list isn't necessarily who gets sold, its more a who I think are the most likely candidates to not be standing at a farm next year. Farms don't usually own the majority interest in a stallion, its a syndicate. So if a stallion has fallen out of favor and the syndicate gets a good offer, they can sell. But an example of one I picked last year at Lane's End is Accelerate. He wasn't sold, he was pensioned and sent to the Kentucky Horse Park. IMO, Union Rags isn't at the pensioning stage, his mares bred, stud fee and auction averages have fallen off a cliff. I don't think they are going to sell him or move him on, as I said above. Just his numbers put him on the list for me. I know this is a different farm but Union Rags stud career kind of reminds me of Forestry. Forestry stood at Taylor Made and his stud fee reached 125k at one point, then he fell out of favor. His stud fee his last year in the US was 8k, he bred 40 mares and he got sold after standing there for 15 years.

Do you know if Accelerate was gelded? Did he have any other breeding issues asides from tanking in sales and on the track?

Do you guys think if American Pharoah wasn’t a triple crown winner Coolmore would move him seeing as he really has had no impact on the triple crown races?

[ForTheThrill]

I can't believe that Lane's End would EVER sell Union Rags! He is the last link that they have to Dixieland Band who was one of their four foundation sires in their start-up in the early 80's. If he ends up no longer commercially viable, I think they'll pension him right there on the grounds and let him live out his life where his sire and his grandsire lived out theirs.

I suppose that there's a possibility that, because of his Classic-winning history, they could donate him to Old Friends, but I really doubt that would ever happen. Grandpappy Dixieland Band says No, I don't think so!

My list isn't necessarily who gets sold, its more a who I think are the most likely candidates to not be standing at a farm next year. Farms don't usually own the majority interest in a stallion, its a syndicate. So if a stallion has fallen out of favor and the syndicate gets a good offer, they can sell. But an example of one I picked last year at Lane's End is Accelerate. He wasn't sold, he was pensioned and sent to the Kentucky Horse Park. IMO, Union Rags isn't at the pensioning stage, his mares bred, stud fee and auction averages have fallen off a cliff. I don't think they are going to sell him or move him on, as I said above. Just his numbers put him on the list for me. I know this is a different farm but Union Rags stud career kind of reminds me of Forestry. Forestry stood at Taylor Made and his stud fee reached 125k at one point, then he fell out of favor. His stud fee his last year in the US was 8k, he bred 40 mares and he got sold after standing there for 15 years.

Do you know if Accelerate was gelded? Did he have any other breeding issues asides from tanking in sales and on the track?

Do you guys think if American Pharoah wasn’t a triple crown winner Coolmore would move him seeing as he really has had no impact on the triple crown races?

Pretty sure Accelerate was gelded, if I recall the retirement announcement correctly.

[Flanders]

I can't believe that Lane's End would EVER sell Union Rags! He is the last link that they have to Dixieland Band who was one of their four foundation sires in their start-up in the early 80's. If he ends up no longer commercially viable, I think they'll pension him right there on the grounds and let him live out his life where his sire and his grandsire lived out theirs.

I suppose that there's a possibility that, because of his Classic-winning history, they could donate him to Old Friends, but I really doubt that would ever happen. Grandpappy Dixieland Band says No, I don't think so!

My list isn't necessarily who gets sold, its more a who I think are the most likely candidates to not be standing at a farm next year. Farms don't usually own the majority interest in a stallion, its a syndicate. So if a stallion has fallen out of favor and the syndicate gets a good offer, they can sell. But an example of one I picked last year at Lane's End is Accelerate. He wasn't sold, he was pensioned and sent to the Kentucky Horse Park. IMO, Union Rags isn't at the pensioning stage, his mares bred, stud fee and auction averages have fallen off a cliff. I don't think they are going to sell him or move him on, as I said above. Just his numbers put him on the list for me. I know this is a different farm but Union Rags stud career kind of reminds me of Forestry. Forestry stood at Taylor Made and his stud fee reached 125k at one point, then he fell out of favor. His stud fee his last year in the US was 8k, he bred 40 mares and he got sold after standing there for 15 years.

Do you know if Accelerate was gelded? Did he have any other breeding issues asides from tanking in sales and on the track?

Do you guys think if American Pharoah wasn’t a triple crown winner Coolmore would move him seeing as he really has had no impact on the triple crown races?

Accelerate is a stallion. https://kyhorsepark.com/explore/hall-of ... ccelerate/ No there was nothing wrong with him. Breeders just didn't use him. He got 9 mares his last year at stud. He was one that wasn't owned by a syndicate. Hronis Racing donated him.

If he wasn't a TC winner, he wouldn't have gotten the mares he did and his career might have been very different. He is a good enough stallion that people still breed to him. He is having a bad year though so I assume they'll be repercussions for that, either at the sales or the mares sent next year.

[flytpthestars]

Spendthrift
*sighs* since Flanders also mentioned this, my bets for their stallions next year are National Treasure (confirmed), Seize the Grey, Dornoch, Fierceness, Arabian Knight and probably some other random(s) trained by Pletcher or Baffert. i don't see them (or any Kentucky farm) getting White Abarrio unless his second half of the year is similar to his 2023 second half of the year. regarding moves:

I just thought of one I forgot about. Newgate who is a G1 by Into Mischief owned by the exact same partnership as National Treasure. Sometimes when Stonestreet is involved they go to Hill N Dale but I suppose Charlatan was different since Stonestreet bred him and stayed in, plus there were some different partners.

I wonder if Spendthrift is express building a new stallion barn as I type?

Spendthrift does have another stallion barn behind the main one. I have walked up there to see Temple City the recent spring.

Wonder which barn Bolt d Oro is at. I inquired in seeing him but they said the only way to see him is to be commited to a breeding season. Guess he is still having issues.

[Flanders]

Spendthrift
*sighs* since Flanders also mentioned this, my bets for their stallions next year are National Treasure (confirmed), Seize the Grey, Dornoch, Fierceness, Arabian Knight and probably some other random(s) trained by Pletcher or Baffert. i don't see them (or any Kentucky farm) getting White Abarrio unless his second half of the year is similar to his 2023 second half of the year. regarding moves:

I just thought of one I forgot about. Newgate who is a G1 by Into Mischief owned by the exact same partnership as National Treasure. Sometimes when Stonestreet is involved they go to Hill N Dale but I suppose Charlatan was different since Stonestreet bred him and stayed in, plus there were some different partners.

I wonder if Spendthrift is express building a new stallion barn as I type?

Spendthrift does have another stallion barn behind the main one. I have walked up there to see Temple City the recent spring.

Wonder which barn Bolt d Oro is at. I inquired in seeing him but they said the only way to see him is to be commited to a breeding season. Guess he is still having issues.

Do you remember if there were empty stalls? I only made my list for them so big because I figured they'd be bringing in so many new stallions that they'd need to move on quite a few stallions. If they do have like 4-5 empty stalls, maybe they only move Coal Front on.

[flytpthestars]

The main barn (horse shoe) was full if I remember correctly. I didnt really walk in the barn where Zandon and IM were so i cant verify the empty stalls. The barn behind the horseshoe only had maybe 3 stallions or so- definitely have empty stalls. I think they also use it for quarantine for the new boys.

Hmm i should have asked abt it...

[mahubah]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Mendelssohn sold to Chile. He's currently 9th on their general sire list and is currently leading their juvenile sire list.

[Flanders]

The main barn (horse shoe) was full if I remember correctly. I didnt really walk in the barn where Zandon and IM were so i cant verify the empty stalls. The barn behind the horseshoe only had maybe 3 stallions or so- definitely have empty stalls. I think they also use it for quarantine for the new boys.

Hmm i should have asked abt it...

Thank you! I was just curious mostly.

[Private Thoughts]

Since Mendelssohn is 3rd on the 3rd crop site list behind Justify and Good Magic, don’t get the talk of him being a horrible sire. Into Mischief took several years to get going as a sire and he’s the king of the moment. And everytime a sire isn’t knocking it out of the park the comment comes up send him to Japan, they will appreciate him. Perhaps breeders here with small pockets would appreciate breeding to a stallion at $15,000 or less with fantastic bloodlines.

Same with American Pharaoh. Good grief, middle of the road stallions are wanted and needed, even here in Kentucky. Not everyone who breeds horses is a multi millionaire. He’s been a consistently good site of decent horses.

[Eohippus]

Since Mendelssohn is 3rd on the 3rd crop site list behind Justify and Good Magic, don’t get the talk of him being a horrible sire. Into Mischief took several years to get going as a sire and he’s the king of the moment. And everytime a sire isn’t knocking it out of the park the comment comes up send him to Japan, they will appreciate him. Perhaps breeders here with small pockets would appreciate breeding to a stallion at $15,000 or less with fantastic bloodlines.

Same with American Pharaoh. Good grief, middle of the road stallions are wanted and needed, even here in Kentucky. Not everyone who breeds horses is a multi millionaire. He’s been a consistently good site of decent horses.

Very true, that’s perhaps a part of the reason foal crops are shrinking, but that what happens with stallions breeding 200+ mares a season. That’s not even considering the “popular sire effect”

[Squeaky]

What breeding issues is Bolt D’Oro ( still) having?

[Northport]

I don't think American Pharoah will ever get sold. Besides his race record, he has found a nice niche as a mid market stallion on both surfaces.

If Mendelssohn was standing anywhere except Ashford, I would agree that he still has value to smaller breeders and should stay put. However, Ashford doesn't exactly strive to cater to the blue collar horseman.

Unlike Into Mischief, who started with poorer books and improved his mares the hard way, Mendelssohn started with plenty of hype and it's probably safe to say that his best quality mares were in his first two books. The Return of Mares bred should shed a lot of light on Mendelssohn's future. If he covered 200+ mares this year at his lowest fee yet, then he probably gets another season in Kentucky.

Re: Bolt D'oro - He had aggression issues early on in his breeding career, resulting in his shuttling career ending and Spendthift having to change how he his handled and stable him away from the other stallions.

[brunanas]

What breeding issues is Bolt D’Oro ( still) having?

very agressive, got like that when shuttling to Australia and kept the behavior when he came back to the USA. he attacked (and hospitalized) his racetrack groom who had been brought in to try and help. who would've thought that overbreeding could cause a mental breakdown! he supposedly got better shortly after but i wouldn't be surprised if he relapsed again.
because why give them breaks when you can just "solve" the issue while still making the horse do what caused the problem?

Bolt D'Oro back on track after steps taken to deal with aggressive nature
https://www.racingpost.com/bloodstock/f ... t56l2Pxsw/