2024 Three Year Olds

[TapitsGal]

Parenting by Justify very impressive winner of the Affirmed at SA in second start. Next up the Haskell as per Bob. Large ownership group of over 700 people. https://x.com/thetdn/status/1799960846761656767?s=46

Yea you could buy shares in him through Commonwealth, which is the same group that offered shares in Mage. He sold out pretty fast, if I remember correct, I bought into him lightning fast

Parenting sold out incredibly fast too. He sold out within a couple minutes of being offered. Multiple people complained they had entered their credit card info,clicked submit and got an error message saying they'd missed out. Commonwealth got tons of complaints and basically was like "our bad..server problem"

[Curtis]

I think Baffert would like to train 4-5 year olds and he'd be good at it.

But he doesn't get a vote.

It’s not that he can’t but to keep up with the program of making stallions the horses get really beat up. When I met up with you last month, we talked about Battle of Midway. He wasn’t a Baffert but his winning the BC Dirt Mile was good news/bad news for me. The good was I was on him since Santa Anita, bet him in the Derby and had him in the BC race at 17-1. I also knew that with that win, I’d probably never see him again. Sadly I did but that’s another story. If National Treasure out bobs—no pun intended…..for once—Cody’s Wish in last year’s version of the same race, do we see him again? Probably not. The only Baffert’s nowadays that make it to 5 are either his—which he usually gelds—or a Pegram like McKinzie. Even knowing that he’d probably have him at five though, McKinzie was pretty much done by then and that year was a waste.

[brunanas]

When I met up with you last month, we talked about Battle of Midway. He wasn’t a Baffert but his winning the BC Dirt Mile was good news/bad news for me. The good was I was on him since Santa Anita, bet him in the Derby and had him in the BC race at 17-1. I also knew that with that win, I’d probably never see him again. Sadly I did but that’s another story.

what happened? i'm assuming you saw him on his last day?

[Curtis]

When I met up with you last month, we talked about Battle of Midway. He wasn’t a Baffert but his winning the BC Dirt Mile was good news/bad news for me. The good was I was on him since Santa Anita, bet him in the Derby and had him in the BC race at 17-1. I also knew that with that win, I’d probably never see him again. Sadly I did but that’s another story.

what happened? i'm assuming you saw him on his last day?

By seeing I meant on the track. Battle of Midway was retired after the BC, but had fertility problems and was put back in training. He actually won a couple of stake races and began a little rivalry with a Baffert trainee named Dabster who after a slow start to his career actually did make it to 5, though he has been suspended in ether since then. Battle of Midway ended up breaking down in a workout at Santa Anita and was euthanized. He was one of the nails in Dorf’s proverbial coffin getting him banned at all Stronach owned tracks.

[Tessablue]

Man, sometimes I forget about the Dorf Saga. CDI could never.

Yeah, no doubt Baffert’s wheelhouse is 2-3yo’s. I think National Treasure, if he wins the Whitney would be tough. He’s not inspiring by any means but he’ll check boxes. I’m even wondering if the ambiguous injury happens pre-Classic. These 3yo’s have talent but they’re too green for me. A Travers/Classic winner would get support. I just envision these horses beating each other a few more times.

Fair enough! I think Sierra Leone is the sort of horse who could sweep the remaining G1s or could finish second by inches in all of them--and there's essentially no way to predict it in either direction. Dan probably isn't good enough at 10f, Seize the Grey would have to be made of adamantium to put together any sort of Eclipse-eligible campaign. Mindframe could be the wildcard here; Haskell/Jim Dany + Travers + Classic would probably do it, given the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately nature of Eclipse voting. I would never have predicted such a thing one week ago, but the sky's the limit after that Belmont effort.

RE: Baffert, he's had plenty of top-class older horses. I think it's just inarguable that his wheelhouse is getting horses to peak high, not long, and that style is not conducive towards older male campaigns. Arrogate was sort of the perfect microcosm of it, even if there was surely something more to it than "he hates Del Mar." It would be a bit of a mild surprise if National Treasure galloped home (or raced) in the Classic, but there are certainly scenarios in which he fails to do so and still wins HOTY. We'll see!

(personally, I'm a bit bummed that Mott said Arthur's Ride won't tackle the big races until next year. He's clearly very good right now, unlike most of the older horses, so why wait? But Mott is among the best at getting his horses to sustain their form, so I certainly can't tell him what to do).

[Diver52]

When I met up with you last month, we talked about Battle of Midway. He wasn’t a Baffert but his winning the BC Dirt Mile was good news/bad news for me. The good was I was on him since Santa Anita, bet him in the Derby and had him in the BC race at 17-1. I also knew that with that win, I’d probably never see him again. Sadly I did but that’s another story.

what happened? i'm assuming you saw him on his last day?

By seeing I meant on the track. Battle of Midway was retired after the BC, but had fertility problems and was put back in training. He actually won a couple of stake races and began a little rivalry with a Baffert trainee named Dabster who after a slow start to his career actually did make it to 5, though he has been suspended in ether since then. Battle of Midway ended up breaking down in a workout at Santa Anita and was euthanized. He was one of the nails in Dorf’s proverbial coffin getting him banned at all Stronach owned tracks.

Black Gold redux. I was always worried that Battle of Midway's story wouldn't end well either.

[Mylute]

Battle of Midway, who was surprisingly successful when brought back after spending a year as a stud, also happened to return the year that Santa Anita had that massive rash of breakdowns and problems with their racing surface. That's a big asterisk for BOM, who I miss very much. Bringing stallions back after retiring is a controversial topic, but it is very rare regardless. I don't think he broke down because he'd been a stallion for a year. I don't have any strong opinions on 'Dorfer but I don't think it's fair to blame him for what happened to BOM. IIRC several people said they used him as a scapegoat. But again I don't remember much.

Also consider what happened in the Classic that year (because we just can't move the BC to Del Mar as a precaution, y'know? ) R.I.P. Mongolian Groom.

BOM had 5 foals, 4 to race, and 4 winners (one is G1P). He probably would've been a good one...maybe one of his daughters will make a good broodmare.

[Mylute]

Regarding current 3 y/os, I’m not sure who I’d give the vote to at the moment. I lean towards Dornoch, BUT Mystik Dan did win the Derby and then place in the Preakness and Arky Derby.

Dornoch and Seize the Grey did not place in another Classic race.

There’s also always the turf 3 y/os, who rarely get attention. I think First World War is going to be a good one and he must be considered if he continues to climb the ranks and then wins a BC turf race. I believe he is being pointed to the Belmont Derby but they have discussed trying him on dirt again. I feel similarly about Endlessly, who is also pointing towards the Belmont Derby. Is the BD going to be at Saratoga or Aqueduct this year?

[Curtis]

Battle of Midway, who was surprisingly successful when brought back after spending a year as a stud, also happened to return the year that Santa Anita had that massive rash of breakdowns and problems with their racing surface. That's a big asterisk for BOM, who I miss very much. Bringing stallions back after retiring is a controversial topic, but it is very rare regardless. I don't think he broke down because he'd been a stallion for a year. I don't have any strong opinions on 'Dorfer but I don't think it's fair to blame him for what happened to BOM. IIRC several people said they used him as a scapegoat. But again I don't remember much.

Also consider what happened in the Classic that year (because we just can't move the BC to Del Mar as a precaution, y'know? ) R.I.P. Mongolian Groom.

BOM had 5 foals, 4 to race, and 4 winners (one is G1P). He probably would've been a good one...maybe one of his daughters will make a good broodmare.

There’s rarely one specific reason as to why a horse breaks down. Battle of Midway was a combination of things. It’s one thing to breed a stallion with the knowledge they’re going to be raced again and another to squeeze more from the lemon like Battle of Midway. I’ve never been a huge fan of Dorf however, if you compare him to other currently prominent trainers, he’s actually pretty conservative. A few, probably more than a few, would have went big game hunting with Songbird, but he kept to his task and ran her for the most that he could against the least that he could. I would attribute Mongolian Groom more to shoddy horsemanship than to the track. It wasn’t a good look though running that BC at Santa Anita.

[Tessablue]

Mongolian Groom was failed by every person around him--people were openly talking about him being lame on the track in the days leading up to the BC, but somehow he made it into the gate. I like to think that his preventable demise was a wake-up call for tracks to take pre-race inspections seriously, but it may have been too little too late for California racing in particular. I wonder if anything would be different if they'd decided to move the BC that year... probably not, but we'll never know.

Don't know enough about Battle of Midway's situation to judge what happened there, but it's hard to imagine that a horse is ever well-served by returning to the track after a stallion career (successful or not). The hormonal changes alone are probably enough to disrupt bone remodeling programs... I just don't see how it could ever be worth the risk.

RE: 3yo of the year, I think we all know that SOCIETY MAN has it locked up

[CoronadosQuest]

Parenting by Justify very impressive winner of the Affirmed at SA in second start. Next up the Haskell as per Bob. Large ownership group of over 700 people. https://x.com/thetdn/status/1799960846761656767?s=46

Yea you could buy shares in him through Commonwealth, which is the same group that offered shares in Mage. He sold out pretty fast, if I remember correct, I bought into him lightning fast

Parenting sold out incredibly fast too. He sold out within a couple minutes of being offered. Multiple people complained they had entered their credit card info,clicked submit and got an error message saying they'd missed out. Commonwealth got tons of complaints and basically was like "our bad..server problem"

That is who I was referring to when I said he sold out really fast. Mage sold out fast too though but I think it took a few days. Parenting took a few hours.

[Curtis]

Mongolian Groom was failed by every person around him--people were openly talking about him being lame on the track in the days leading up to the BC, but somehow he made it into the gate. I like to think that his preventable demise was a wake-up call for tracks to take pre-race inspections seriously, but it may have been too little too late for California racing in particular. I wonder if anything would be different if they'd decided to move the BC that year... probably not, but we'll never know.

Don't know enough about Battle of Midway's situation to judge what happened there, but it's hard to imagine that a horse is ever well-served by returning to the track after a stallion career (successful or not). The hormonal changes alone are probably enough to disrupt bone remodeling programs... I just don't see how it could ever be worth the risk.

RE: 3yo of the year, I think we all know that SOCIETY MAN has it locked up

There was a California horseman, by way of Norway, named Kjell Qvale who bred many a nice horse. He actually owned Silky Sullivan for most of his post race career. Pretty much a failure as a stallion, Qvale would clean Silky up and braid green Pom poms into his mane and tail and parade him at GGF every St. Patrick’s Day. Qvale’s silks were orange and green so with the green Pom poms and Silky’s orange coat it was covered. At any rate, Qvale bred and raced two accomplished colts. The first was Silveyville and the other Variety Road. Both were bred and brought back to race multiple seasons. Qvale knew he was going to do this however, and kept the stallions in light training while they were breeding. Unlike the advice Mickey gave to Rocky regarding “Women weakening legs”, that in Qvale’s opinion, didn’t apply to mares.

[Starine]

(personally, I'm a bit bummed that Mott said Arthur's Ride won't tackle the big races until next year. He's clearly very good right now, unlike most of the older horses, so why wait? But Mott is among the best at getting his horses to sustain their form, so I certainly can't tell him what to do).

I thought he said he might target a race like the Jockey Club Gold Cup... maybe I misheard.

[BaroqueAgain1]

I just looked up Arthur's Ride on Bloodhorse to check out his pedigree. Love seeing Point Given on the dam side, but....according to the BH Profile, Arthur's Ride is a 2020 model. Not a 2024 3yo.

[Tessablue]

He is, but those musings were part of a discussion about the current 3yos relative to the state of the older horses. The older males are not a great bunch so far, so the 3yos may have a better shot at HOTY than they would in another year. Society Man, for example, when he sweeps the Haskell/ Travers/ JCGC/ Arc de Triomphe/ Classic

I thought he said he might target a race like the Jockey Club Gold Cup... maybe I misheard.

That would be great! I was just going off of what he said in the immediate aftermath, so I'm sure plans have come more into focus in the time since then. A ramp up to the JCGC and Classic if that race goes well sounds good.

There was a California horseman, by way of Norway, named Kjell Qvale who bred many a nice horse. He actually owned Silky Sullivan for most of his post race career. Pretty much a failure as a stallion, Qvale would clean Silky up and braid green Pom poms into his mane and tail and parade him at GGF every St. Patrick’s Day. Qvale’s silks were orange and green so with the green Pom poms and Silky’s orange coat it was covered. At any rate, Qvale bred and raced two accomplished colts. The first was Silveyville and the other Variety Road. Both were bred and brought back to race multiple seasons. Qvale knew he was going to do this however, and kept the stallions in light training while they were breeding. Unlike the advice Mickey gave to Rocky regarding “Women weakening legs”, that in Qvale’s opinion, didn’t apply to mares.

...you know, I don't often say this, but they really don't make them like they used to.

[Mylute]

Pegasus Stakes entries. Looks like it'll be a good race.
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... alysis_123

Field includes Uncle Heavy, Domestic Product, Hades returning, and the local colt Sea Streak.

[Starine]

Pandagate targeting July comeback
https://www.drf.com/news/pandagate-targ ... y-comeback

[Saban]

Where is Mighty Message racing next? Anyone here know?

Mighty Message is by Goldencents and last raced in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3), but did not fare too well.

My guess is that he will next race at Churchill Downs in an allowance (N2X) race.

[stark]

Where is Mighty Message racing next? Anyone here know?[flash=][/flash]

Mighty Message is by Goldencents and last raced in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3), but did not fare too well.

My guess is that he will next race at Churchill Downs in an allowance (N2X) race.

He didn't belong in that G3 race as the longest shot on the board at 35/1.

But he did come back to work 5F yesterday in a minute flat, so he's okay.

[Saban]

Where is Mighty Message racing next? Anyone here know?[flash=][/flash]

Mighty Message is by Goldencents and last raced in the Matt Winn Stakes (G3), but did not fare too well.

My guess is that he will next race at Churchill Downs in an allowance (N2X) race.

He didn't belong in that G3 race as the longest shot on the board at 35/1.

But he did come back to work 5F yesterday in a minute flat, so he's okay.

I agree that Mighty Message is not a graded stakes horse unless he improves a lot. He will probably finish the year trying to go through the allowance conditions and maybe some listed stakes races.