150TH KENTUCKY DERBY

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Cigarillo
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:03 pm

Missbeholder wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 7:45 pm I had to laugh! For the last week, all over the place, people were warning that if the track comes up wet or sloppy, be sure to include Mystic Dan in your wagers. But you always got the feeling that you were also being told that you should just toss him if the track was good or fast.

Amazing how we manage to outsmart ourselves in this game, isn't it?☺️
He had the second highest speed rating outside of Fierceness and I didn't even take a sniff at him. The joys of wagering horses lol.
Tessablue
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:06 pm

Yeah I think Tyler was trying to urge his horse without using the right-hand whip, and he was too close to Forever Young to really go to the left hand. Tough spot for a jockey to be in and I'm sure any contact was incidental.

Forever Young leaned right back on him... what a cool racehorse. I think he'll be the true winner for many fans watching this race! Hope he stays in the US or returns later in the year, he could absolutely win a big one.
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HB1994
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:06 pm

Cigarillo wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 8:03 pm
Missbeholder wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 7:45 pm I had to laugh! For the last week, all over the place, people were warning that if the track comes up wet or sloppy, be sure to include Mystic Dan in your wagers. But you always got the feeling that you were also being told that you should just toss him if the track was good or fast.

Amazing how we manage to outsmart ourselves in this game, isn't it?☺️
He had the second highest speed rating outside of Fierceness and I didn't even take a sniff at him. The joys of wagering horses lol.
Me, too. I went back to look at his past performances and was like, damn, how did I miss that 101 BSF/
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Palace Malice
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:12 pm

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brunanas
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:15 pm

was just coming here to share that.
i like plushies. a lot.
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brunanas
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:20 pm

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i like plushies. a lot.
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Gemini
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:21 pm

brunanas wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 7:23 pm Image

how sticking your arm out and pushing through the lane doesn't even light up the inquiry sign is beyond me.
I was yelling about that as soon as they crossed the wire. At least Mystik Dan held on so we didn’t have to see Chad Brown’s smarmy face in the winner’s circle on top of his horse committing interference.
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Curtis
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:24 pm

Gemini wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 8:21 pm
brunanas wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 7:23 pm Image

how sticking your arm out and pushing through the lane doesn't even light up the inquiry sign is beyond me.
I was yelling about that as soon as they crossed the wire. At least Mystik Dan held on so we didn’t have to see Chad Brown’s smarmy face in the winner’s circle on top of his horse committing interference.
I think Tyler was trying to keep his mount off of Forever Young best he could and the latter was also coming out some. Good non-call, in my opinion.
MeaghanEdwards
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:25 pm

Palace Malice wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 8:12 pm Image
Oof, not a good look.
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Gemini
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:27 pm

HB1994 wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 8:06 pm
Cigarillo wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 8:03 pm
Missbeholder wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 7:45 pm I had to laugh! For the last week, all over the place, people were warning that if the track comes up wet or sloppy, be sure to include Mystic Dan in your wagers. But you always got the feeling that you were also being told that you should just toss him if the track was good or fast.

Amazing how we manage to outsmart ourselves in this game, isn't it?☺️
He had the second highest speed rating outside of Fierceness and I didn't even take a sniff at him. The joys of wagering horses lol.
Me, too. I went back to look at his past performances and was like, damn, how did I miss that 101 BSF/
I made fun of Mystik Dan’s name and thus sealed his win. :lol:
Tessablue
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:31 pm

I suspect that photo is from the moment Tyler switched his whip into the left hand, which he needed to do. Like I said, really tough position for him to be in.

Ran my Derby figure algorithm and it wasn't a super fast race, very close to Rich Strike's effort. I have Dan getting a 101 BSF... again. Really did not think he'd pair up that effort going 10f, and I can't believe Goldencents is a Derby-winning sire! But good for him, he was a cool racehorse.
djnorth
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:32 pm

Interesting race. Didn't cash any tickets but looks like everybody came back OK. I cashed on the Day Mile. I'm one of those MRH owners who doesn't attempt to tell Wayne Lukas what to do!

I know it's just a microshare but it was fun!

I'm glad for thr connections as it's their first Derby.

Forgot to add: just looked at Mystik Dan's pedigree. No inbreeding first five generations. That's relatively rare now, isn't it?
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Palace Malice
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:34 pm

brunanas wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 8:20 pm Image
So, is Fierceness a miler or just not his day? Bad feet? Wonder what excuse they will pull out.
Tessablue
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:41 pm

Just watched the race a few more times... man, Mystik Dan had possibly the best trip of any recent Derby contestant. It was like he had a forcefield around him... absolutely wild. He did break incredibly well and then punched through that very tight spot on the rail turning for home, had a lot of guts to do that, but trip was definitely the difference-maker here.

Fierceness hit the same wall that he hit in his previous two losses. He broke a little slow, I don't think he needed to be up that close and wide, and I think the pace was quicker than it looked, but he just didn't have anything. Johnny V pretty much wrapped him up, and hopefully he comes out of the race without any issues.

EDIT: Man I hate to say it, but Forever Young could have gotten a better ride. Watch him vs. Sierra Leone on the final turn: Sierra Leone is actually inside of him until the very top of the stretch, because Tyler prioritized saving ground until the last possible second. Forever Young might have moved a tiny bit too soon, and with the tiny final margin that could have been the difference-maker. Not criticizing the jockey! It was a good ride overall, and the horse was very brave. It's just a reminder of how difficult it is to win the Kentucky Derby.

Also, T O Password ran insanely well. He should seriously run in the Preakness, any chance of that?
Slewfan2
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:51 pm

Tessablue wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 8:41 pm Just watched the race a few more times... man, Mystik Dan had possibly the best trip of any recent Derby contestant. It was like he had a forcefield around him... absolutely wild. He did break incredibly well and then punched through that very tight spot on the rail turning for home, had a lot of guts to do that, but trip was definitely the difference-maker here.

Fierceness hit the same wall that he hit in his previous two losses. He broke a little slow, I don't think he needed to be up that close and wide, and I think the pace was quicker than it looked, but he just didn't have anything. Johnny V pretty much wrapped him up, and hopefully he comes out of the race without any issues.

EDIT: Man I hate to say it, but Forever Young could have gotten a better ride. Watch him vs. Sierra Leone on the final turn: Sierra Leone is actually inside of him until the very top of the stretch, because Tyler prioritized saving ground until the last possible second. Forever Young might have moved a tiny bit too soon, and with the tiny final margin that could have been the difference-maker. Not criticizing the jockey! It was a good ride overall, and the horse was very brave. It's just a reminder of how difficult it is to win the Kentucky Derby.

Also, T O Password ran insanely well. He should seriously run in the Preakness, any chance of that?
How was Honor Marie’s trip? I’ve read he had a bad start and not a great ride
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CoronadosQuest
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Sat May 04, 2024 8:56 pm

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Flanders
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Sat May 04, 2024 9:00 pm

Slewfan2 wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 8:51 pm
How was Honor Marie’s trip? I’ve read he had a bad start and not a great ride
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOsPqRQ51mM

Not the greatest quality but you can watch. He had it rough all around. He got bumped at the start, on the first turn, and then in the stretch(I'm not quite sure if he made contact here, the jockey was steering him crazy).
TapitsGal
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Sat May 04, 2024 9:02 pm

Tessablue wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 8:41 pm Just watched the race a few more times... man, Mystik Dan had possibly the best trip of any recent Derby contestant. It was like he had a forcefield around him... absolutely wild. He did break incredibly well and then punched through that very tight spot on the rail turning for home, had a lot of guts to do that, but trip was definitely the difference-maker here.

Fierceness hit the same wall that he hit in his previous two losses. He broke a little slow, I don't think he needed to be up that close and wide, and I think the pace was quicker than it looked, but he just didn't have anything. Johnny V pretty much wrapped him up, and hopefully he comes out of the race without any issues.

EDIT: Man I hate to say it, but Forever Young could have gotten a better ride. Watch him vs. Sierra Leone on the final turn: Sierra Leone is actually inside of him until the very top of the stretch, because Tyler prioritized saving ground until the last possible second. Forever Young might have moved a tiny bit too soon, and with the tiny final margin that could have been the difference-maker. Not criticizing the jockey! It was a good ride overall, and the horse was very brave. It's just a reminder of how difficult it is to win the Kentucky Derby.

Also, T O Password ran insanely well. He should seriously run in the Preakness, any chance of that?
I heard T O Passwords jockey lost his whip in the stretch
Tessablue
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Sat May 04, 2024 9:04 pm

Slewfan2 wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 8:51 pm How was Honor Marie’s trip? I’ve read he had a bad start and not a great ride
Just rewatched it and focused on him- he was bounced around badly at the start, lost a lot of position, seemed to resent taking dirt early. Saved a ton of ground in the final turn, but then his jockey seemed to get a bit nervous about his positioning and kind of yanked him outside in the stretch. Kept coming and was well-beaten but finished better than plenty of others.

Would he have won the race with a better trip? I don't think so, but he tried very hard after being given reason to quit, and I think you should be very proud of him.
Slewfan2
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Sat May 04, 2024 9:08 pm

Tessablue wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 9:04 pm
Slewfan2 wrote: Sat May 04, 2024 8:51 pm How was Honor Marie’s trip? I’ve read he had a bad start and not a great ride
Just rewatched it and focused on him- he was bounced around badly at the start, lost a lot of position, seemed to resent taking dirt early. Saved a ton of ground in the final turn, but then his jockey seemed to get a bit nervous about his positioning and kind of yanked him outside in the stretch. Kept coming and was well-beaten but finished better than plenty of others.

Would he have won the race with a better trip? I don't think so, but he tried very hard after being given reason to quit, and I think you should be very proud of him.
Thank you! Good boy always tries hard - he’ll get better as he matures, too. The Derby is less race and more Demolition Derby

I just saw the photo of SL jock reaching over to FY - that’s unbelievable - just outrageous
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