2021 Report of Mares Bred

CorridorZ75
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Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:25 pm

Slewfan2 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:48 pm
Flanders wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 6:00 pm
Slewfan2 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 5:23 pm


True, but because he does sire later developers, I have hopes that that % will increase.

When farms set stud fees, do they do so after they gauge the interest or lack thereof from breeders ?
Most farms tend to put their stud fees out after the Keeneland September yearling sale and before the Breeders Cup. They might hold off on some stallions until after the Breeders Cup. I think they wait til most of the prep races have been run and also want to judge how buyers are supporting their stallions.

Like Honor Code got one decent price yearling but when you think the average was 50k and they were bred on a 40k fee, idk. I don't understand the holding his stud fee at 20k. I would think he would be better off being dropped a little further but maybe they have interest or aren't worried.

Recently Bill was on a TDN podcast for a Name that Yearling (which was an Honor Code). They talked about HC for a little, and he did talk about how he was undervalued; he's not only not worried, he seemed confident, optimistic and relaxed. I'm surprised as well at no fee reduction, but I guess he knows something. I think Honor Code means a lot to Bill and his father because he's Indy's last big son. 29 mares is pretty much rock bottom (and some of those mares are probably owned by LE or in partnership with old friends of WF's - or by family); it can't get much worse than that, and I think if they were going to do anything (I guess I mean sell), it would have happened. I feel like they're just going to accept however it is with HC and simply not worry about numbers.

They can afford to take it in stride, but frankly a stallion who gets an AEI of 1.24 from a harem with a CI of 2.21 is simply not a great sire. Even with late developers, that is a baddd sign. Heck that 1.21 apparently takes into account his few good runners.

And I thought American Pharoah's 1.51 off of 2.75 was pretty mediocre. At least you are only out $20K for Honor Code. I would still take Dialed In at $15K or Khozan at $10K over those two. Can we give it up for Grazen holding up the Alydar flame over in California and improving mares quite a bit.
TapitsGal
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Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:47 pm

Report of mares bred for some of Pioneerof the Nile's sons from the Jockey Club:

American Pharoah: 204
Aurelius Maximus: 61
Cairo Prince: 90
Classic Empire: 95
Midnight Storm: 85
Osiris of the Nile: 2
Spirit of the Nile: 7
St Patrick's Day: 42
Social Inclusion: 19
Shupanga: 2
Thousand Words: 184

Ali, River Dancer, Pharoah Bob, and Empire of d'Nile were not listed
Slewfan2
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Mon Oct 25, 2021 11:17 pm

CorridorZ75 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 10:25 pm
Slewfan2 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 7:48 pm
Flanders wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 6:00 pm
Most farms tend to put their stud fees out after the Keeneland September yearling sale and before the Breeders Cup. They might hold off on some stallions until after the Breeders Cup. I think they wait til most of the prep races have been run and also want to judge how buyers are supporting their stallions.

Like Honor Code got one decent price yearling but when you think the average was 50k and they were bred on a 40k fee, idk. I don't understand the holding his stud fee at 20k. I would think he would be better off being dropped a little further but maybe they have interest or aren't worried.

Recently Bill was on a TDN podcast for a Name that Yearling (which was an Honor Code). They talked about HC for a little, and he did talk about how he was undervalued; he's not only not worried, he seemed confident, optimistic and relaxed. I'm surprised as well at no fee reduction, but I guess he knows something. I think Honor Code means a lot to Bill and his father because he's Indy's last big son. 29 mares is pretty much rock bottom (and some of those mares are probably owned by LE or in partnership with old friends of WF's - or by family); it can't get much worse than that, and I think if they were going to do anything (I guess I mean sell), it would have happened. I feel like they're just going to accept however it is with HC and simply not worry about numbers.

They can afford to take it in stride, but frankly a stallion who gets an AEI of 1.24 from a harem with a CI of 2.21 is simply not a great sire. Even with late developers, that is a baddd sign. Heck that 1.21 apparently takes into account his few good runners.

And I thought American Pharoah's 1.51 off of 2.75 was pretty mediocre. At least you are only out $20K for Honor Code. I would still take Dialed In at $15K or Khozan at $10K over those two. Can we give it up for Grazen holding up the Alydar flame over in California and improving mares quite a bit.
Ok, I didn’t say he was a great sire....but IMO, he’s doing well now. I don’t know where to find the AEI/CI numbers, but I saw it them just today, and other sires in his crop have similar ratios of AEI to CI. Are you criticizing them? By the way, based on what you just wrote, AP is 1.24 off of his CI, and HC is less than 1, so I don’t get your comment about how you thought AP was mediocre until you saw HC’s numbers. Your last comment “ Heck that 1.21 apparently takes into account his few good runners” doesn’t make any sense - of course the 1.21 includes his good runners, just like AP, and every other sire.

Anyway, I’m happy with the year he’s had. Of course I always hope he‘ ll do even better...hope springs eternal.
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starrydreamer
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:28 am

75 mares for War Front - I think that was his number last year as well.
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Diver52
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:08 pm

184 for Thousand Words? Whose main claim to fame was flipping in the paddock and being scratched from the KD? :o
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Mylute
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:11 pm

Diver52 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:08 pm 184 for Thousand Words? Whose main claim to fame was flipping in the paddock and being scratched from the KD? :o
this kind of makes me upset not gonna lie

like wtf???
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Slewfan2
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:45 pm

Diver52 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:08 pm 184 for Thousand Words? Whose main claim to fame was flipping in the paddock and being scratched from the KD? :o
My friend and I had this discussion yesterday...he’s popular because of his sire.
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Flanders
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:55 pm

I'd rather Thousand Words covered 184 mares than Vekoma covered 222. He looked like a horse breaking down every time he ran but hey let's breed a couple hundred mares to him. Great idea!
KatieK101
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:36 pm

No one has mentioned Daredevil yet... probably because he did well !

His first year at stud (2016) he covered 123 mares.

In 2017 he covered 113 mares.

His first season back in the US, he covered 95 mares.

It's his lowest book, but it's still very consistent with his previous books. Good for him, and for Lanes End!
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mariasmon
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 3:37 pm

KatieK101 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:36 pm No one has mentioned Daredevil yet... probably because he did well !

His first year at stud (2016) he covered 123 mares.

In 2017 he covered 113 mares.

His first season back in the US, he covered 95 mares.

It's his lowest book, but it's still very consistent with his previous books. Good for him, and for Lanes End!
His lowest was 2019, when he got 21 mares.
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Palace Malice
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 4:10 pm

Mylute wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:11 pm
Diver52 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:08 pm 184 for Thousand Words? Whose main claim to fame was flipping in the paddock and being scratched from the KD? :o
this kind of makes me upset not gonna lie

like wtf???
Instagrand getting 190... yikes.
BaroqueAgain1
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 4:14 pm

Was Daredevil standing in Turkey when he got those 21? It clearly has been better for him to have moved back to the US, where he is being given far more opportunities.
IIRC, he is still the property of the Jockey Club of Turkey, so they must be pleased to be making more from stallion fees.
BaroqueAgain1
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 4:17 pm

"Instagrand getting 190... yikes."

It's Into Mischief Mania. All his sons are more popular than their race records might justify. :roll:
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mariasmon
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:31 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 4:14 pm Was Daredevil standing in Turkey when he got those 21? It clearly has been better for him to have moved back to the US, where he is being given far more opportunities.
IIRC, he is still the property of the Jockey Club of Turkey, so they must be pleased to be making more from stallion fees.
No. It wouldn't be reported in JC statistics if it had been during his time in Turkey. 2020 was the lone breeding season he spent there.
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Flanders
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:00 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 4:14 pm Was Daredevil standing in Turkey when he got those 21? It clearly has been better for him to have moved back to the US, where he is being given far more opportunities.
IIRC, he is still the property of the Jockey Club of Turkey, so they must be pleased to be making more from stallion fees.
Not sure how many mares he bred in Turkey but he had 77 foals born this year, so I'd guess over 100. They also do limit stallions covers, I just don't know what his was.
WarBiscuit
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:09 pm

Seems like Flintshire should have done a little better than 8? Bargain basement fee for 2022 - was it the same last season?

WarBiscuit
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Flanders
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:35 pm

WarBiscuit wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:09 pm Seems like Flintshire should have done a little better than 8? Bargain basement fee for 2022 - was it the same last season?

WarBiscuit
It was 10k in 2021.
WarBiscuit
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:20 pm

Flanders wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:35 pm
WarBiscuit wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:09 pm Seems like Flintshire should have done a little better than 8? Bargain basement fee for 2022 - was it the same last season?

WarBiscuit
It was 10k in 2021.
Thanks Flanders. For a talented earner of 9 and 1/2 million, I wonder why there would be such little interest in him? Just curious.

WarBiscuit
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HB1994
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:56 pm

WarBiscuit wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:20 pm
Flanders wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:35 pm
WarBiscuit wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:09 pm Seems like Flintshire should have done a little better than 8? Bargain basement fee for 2022 - was it the same last season?

WarBiscuit
It was 10k in 2021.
Thanks Flanders. For a talented earner of 9 and 1/2 million, I wonder why there would be such little interest in him? Just curious.

WarBiscuit
For one, he’s in the wrong country.
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Flanders
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Tue Oct 26, 2021 8:01 pm

WarBiscuit wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:20 pm
Flanders wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:35 pm
WarBiscuit wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 6:09 pm Seems like Flintshire should have done a little better than 8? Bargain basement fee for 2022 - was it the same last season?

WarBiscuit
It was 10k in 2021.
Thanks Flanders. For a talented earner of 9 and 1/2 million, I wonder why there would be such little interest in him? Just curious.

WarBiscuit
Long winded cold hard truth? I don't know why they ever stood him in Kentucky. Commercial breeders just don't like long distance turf horses, they don't even like Kitten's Joy or English Channel much(and they are both excellent turf sires). Add to that he isn't doing well at stud. He has 159 foals of racing age, 75 starters, 29 winners, 2 SWs (one G3SW, one G2sp/SW). I'm going to put his mares bred, stud fee for the year the foals were bred and yearling average below. But you'll be able to see buyers gave up on him or never wanted him. Once bad yearling results come in this will make breeders stop using a stallion immediately because there isn't a point to use a stallion that you are going to lose money on when trying to sell their foals. I'm not a huge fan of using comparative index but his two crops of racing age have a comparative index of 1.87 so they did manage to get him an okay group of mares, he just hasn't done much with them. For example the leader from the 2nd crop stallions is Not This Time who got mares with a lower Comparative Index than Flintshire but has 13 SWs from 205 foals of racing age.

They got him a decent sized book of mares his first year but since then the numbers started to drop fast:
2017 - 121 (20k stud fee) yearling average 44k
2018 - 89 (20k stud fee) yearling average 18k
2019 - 69 (15k stud fee) yearling average 9k
2020 - 38
2021 - 8

However I do want to say that his foals SHOULD do better with age and added distance. Flintshire himself didn't start racing until age 3 and ran through age 6. Did breeders really think he was going to get precocious 2yo SWs? Hopefully he can bring it back but I think its too late for him in Kentucky. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad they tried to give him a chance in Kentucky but its so incredibly rare that a long distance turf horse goes on to be a viable stallion in Kentucky.
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