2021 Keeneland September

[Katewerk]

722, colt by Arrogate x G1 winner Got Lucky, may test the interest in Arrogate. Can't get a lot better than a G1 A.P. Indy dam....$150,000.

What's going on with the Arrogates that buyers seem to be cold on them?

[Missbeholder]

722, colt by Arrogate x G1 winner Got Lucky, may test the interest in Arrogate. Can't get a lot better than a G1 A.P. Indy dam....$150,000.

What's going on with the Arrogates that buyers seem to be cold on them?

Could it be the strange arc to his career, and ultimately his life? Really, he didn't run in the Triple Crown season, he had a few pretty unremarkable races in Cali to start his career, and was dropped into the Travers, where he was 11/1 I might add. Starting there, he reels off 4 other-worldly performances in a row that nobody's ever seen before, and then suddenly stops! After a couple disappointing efforts at Del Mar, he's retired and off to stud he goes. Then, he tragically dies at age 8, shocking the entire thoroughbred world! Added to that is the growing acceptance of the fact that Unbridled's Song is just NOT a sire of sires!

It just seems to me that this is a relentless piling on of circumstances that doesn't instill confidence. It actually surprises me that his books had the quality that they did, but what I know about this stuff isn't much!

[Flanders]

722, colt by Arrogate x G1 winner Got Lucky, may test the interest in Arrogate. Can't get a lot better than a G1 A.P. Indy dam....$150,000.

What's going on with the Arrogates that buyers seem to be cold on them?

I'd say its more its mid-September and he has had 2 winners from his first crop than anything else.

[Squeaky]

722, colt by Arrogate x G1 winner Got Lucky, may test the interest in Arrogate. Can't get a lot better than a G1 A.P. Indy dam....$150,000.

What's going on with the Arrogates that buyers seem to be cold on them?

I'd say its more its mid-September and he has had 2 winners from his first crop than anything else.

Everyone wants precocious 2 year old runners now. Will be interesting to see if any of his 3 crops improve with time and development…or maybe not. Agree that his rapid decline after Dubai and then sad but rather unusual death leave a lot of unanswered questions.

[BaroqueAgain1]

Arrogate was such a freak, and he may not be able to reproduce himself. I never loved his looks, but he sure could run a hole in the wind.

[BaroqueAgain1]

1029, Quality Road x Debonnaire (GB) filly is interesting. The dam foaled Hartnell, who was a superb G1 winner in Australia for years. $220,000.

[CorridorZ75]

722, colt by Arrogate x G1 winner Got Lucky, may test the interest in Arrogate. Can't get a lot better than a G1 A.P. Indy dam....$150,000.

What's going on with the Arrogates that buyers seem to be cold on them?

I'd say its more its mid-September and he has had 2 winners from his first crop than anything else.

Not to mention the jockey who won on one of them just got a 10 year ban for carrying a buzzer.

[Katewerk]

722, colt by Arrogate x G1 winner Got Lucky, may test the interest in Arrogate. Can't get a lot better than a G1 A.P. Indy dam....$150,000.

What's going on with the Arrogates that buyers seem to be cold on them?

Could it be the strange arc to his career, and ultimately his life? Really, he didn't run in the Triple Crown season, he had a few pretty unremarkable races in Cali to start his career, and was dropped into the Travers, where he was 11/1 I might add. Starting there, he reels off 4 other-worldly performances in a row that nobody's ever seen before, and then suddenly stops! After a couple disappointing efforts at Del Mar, he's retired and off to stud he goes. Then, he tragically dies at age 8, shocking the entire thoroughbred world! Added to that is the growing acceptance of the fact that Unbridled's Song is just NOT a sire of sires!

It just seems to me that this is a relentless piling on of circumstances that doesn't instill confidence. It actually surprises me that his books had the quality that they did, but what I know about this stuff isn't much!

All those and the other comments make sense. I was curious if there were other issues not in the public domain but known among breeders -- disappointing size, conformation in his foals, that kind of thing.

[tachyon]

Per Michele MacDonald on Twitter:
More yearlings RNA'd or OUT than sold in 1st #KeeSept session. # sold (95) down 18.8% from 2020's 117; gross down $3.963m (9.4%). Avg. price $401,811 up from $360,128. 3 Yearlings sold for $1m or more compared to 5 in 2020. American Pharoah filly tops session at $1.4m

The I'm a Chatterbox filly will be sent to Bill Mott to train.

Hideyuki Mori purchased the three most expensive Justify colts today; including the Classic Empire half-brother. I assume all three colts will be campaigned in Japan.

I was going to ask if anyone knew who they were buying for. Another sold to J.S Company who I think is Japanese as well?
If so, big foreign support for him.

There was a report on Bloodhorse on Monday about Hideyuki Mori's purchase in Session 1.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... -for-japan

And Hideyuki Mori has bought six Justify yearlings until yesterday (until Session 4).
I don't know yet who Hjdeyuki Mori has been buying these Justify bebies for.
There is a RUMOR that Susumu Fujita, president of CyberAgent Inc., is behind him, probably because Fujita was a huge buyer at JRHA Select Sale two months ago.
‘’Uma-musume’’ is one of his products.

Can the rumor be true?
I hope we will see soon!!

[tachyon]

Hideyuki Mori went for Justify #7 today.

[HB1994]

Interesting that City of Light, not Justify, was the leading first-crop sire by average.

[Izvestia]

Interesting that City of Light, not Justify, was the leading first-crop sire by average.

I like City of Light more. He was (IMO) a better racehorse and has a better pedigree (ok, maybe not better, but I find his interesting). Better looking horse too. And, I guess his foals look the part.

[Flanders]

Interesting that City of Light, not Justify, was the leading first-crop sire by average.

That's pretty darn close in price but their stud fees certainly were not. I wonder if its a supply and demand thing. City of Light(*103) has far fewer foals in his first crop than Justify(*180). Or if City of Light is just siring stunning individuals.

*numbers may not be completely accurate, just pulled numbers from the 2019 breeding/2020 foaling stats the Jockey Club publishes.

[starrydreamer]

Interesting that City of Light, not Justify, was the leading first-crop sire by average.

That's pretty darn close in price but their stud fees certainly were not. I wonder if its a supply and demand thing. City of Light(*103) has far fewer foals in his first crop than Justify(*180). Or if City of Light is just siring stunning individuals.

*numbers may not be completely accurate, just pulled numbers from the 2019 breeding/2020 foaling stats the Jockey Club publishes.

Yeah - considering the book of mares Justify had (aka some of Coolmore's best), plus his stud fee, you'd think he would have knocked it out of the park. Part of the problem might be oversaturation - just too many Justify offspring to choose from, therefore the supply exceeds the demand. City of Light had 53 that went through the Keeneland sale ring (6 RNAs), Justify had 76 (15 RNAs).

[Flanders]

Interesting that City of Light, not Justify, was the leading first-crop sire by average.

That's pretty darn close in price but their stud fees certainly were not. I wonder if its a supply and demand thing. City of Light(*103) has far fewer foals in his first crop than Justify(*180). Or if City of Light is just siring stunning individuals.

*numbers may not be completely accurate, just pulled numbers from the 2019 breeding/2020 foaling stats the Jockey Club publishes.

Yeah - considering the book of mares Justify had (aka some of Coolmore's best), plus his stud fee, you'd think he would have knocked it out of the park. Part of the problem might be oversaturation - just too many Justify offspring to choose from, therefore the supply exceeds the demand. City of Light had 53 that went through the Keeneland sale ring (6 RNAs), Justify had 76 (15 RNAs).

Lane's End may have also been more selective with City of Light's book because they definitely put limits on their stallions books, I think CoL was booked full before he even made it to Lane's End that first year. By that I mean maybe they tried to pick mares, from the ones submitted, that they thought conformationally/nick wise would work the best with him. As opposed to Coolmore, who we all know will breed their stallion to any and every mare, as long as the stud fee is paid.

[Missbeholder]

I think I read somewhere (no recollection of where) that there was some concern, at the start at least, about City Of Light's fertility. Is that, or was it ever, an issue?

Just curious.

[Flanders]

I think I read somewhere (no recollection of where) that there was some concern, at the start at least, about City Of Light's fertility. Is that, or was it ever, an issue?

Just curious.

I heard that too but he had the same % mares bred to foals produced as Justify did. They were both 71%, which I would say is about average. He only has one year worth of data to look at right now though, the 2020 breeding/2021 foaling stats is usually released by the Jockey Club the first week of October.
Since it was just rumors and there wasn't anything ever released about it, it could have been something like Dixie Union had when he went to stud. He had to be bred X hours apart and he had to be moved to Lane's End part way into the season where they could accommodate that breeding schedule.

[Diver52]

I've always thought that if I were a breeder--at least a commercial breeder--I would lean strongly towards stallions with more limited books. Even with 53 yearlings buyers had plenty of City of Light's to choose from, but when you have 73, it's really easy for buyers to turn their backs on the lesser ones and move on to the next.

[mariasmon]

I think I read somewhere (no recollection of where) that there was some concern, at the start at least, about City Of Light's fertility. Is that, or was it ever, an issue?

Just curious.

I heard that too but he had the same % mares bred to foals produced as Justify did. They were both 71%, which I would say is about average. He only has one year worth of data to look at right now though, the 2020 breeding/2021 foaling stats is usually released by the Jockey Club the first week of October.
Since it was just rumors and there wasn't anything ever released about it, it could have been something like Dixie Union had when he went to stud. He had to be bred X hours apart and he had to be moved to Lane's End part way into the season where they could accommodate that breeding schedule.

Where did Dixie Union stand initially?

[Flanders]

I think I read somewhere (no recollection of where) that there was some concern, at the start at least, about City Of Light's fertility. Is that, or was it ever, an issue?

Just curious.

I heard that too but he had the same % mares bred to foals produced as Justify did. They were both 71%, which I would say is about average. He only has one year worth of data to look at right now though, the 2020 breeding/2021 foaling stats is usually released by the Jockey Club the first week of October.
Since it was just rumors and there wasn't anything ever released about it, it could have been something like Dixie Union had when he went to stud. He had to be bred X hours apart and he had to be moved to Lane's End part way into the season where they could accommodate that breeding schedule.

Where did Dixie Union stand initially?

Diamond A (which used to be Allen Paulson's Brookside Farm). I don't remember if they stood stallions after Dixie Union, if they did, they got out of the stallion game early.