Hard Spun Foals

Happy Endings · Mon Mar 15, 2021 5:03 pm

Saban wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 12:53 am
Happy Endings wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 7:35 pm CADDO RIVER finished 5th or 6th maybe in the Rebel. Disappointing. He didn't get the lead and didn't settle. Dang. He didn't get any points out of that race, so he sits at 10. He would need a 1st or second in the Ark Derby to get in the KD and after today, I'm not sure he has the talent for it. That was pathetic. Bitter pill. I was hoping Hard Spun finally had a classic horse.
Don't worry about Caddo River. He will go to stud someplace after he is done racing, and he will probably win some graded stakes races before he is done. He is a good horse. As for Hard Spun, even Mr. Prospector did not get a Kentucky Derby winner until he was about 28 years old. Of course, Mr. P sired over a thousand horses and was bred to nothing but Cadillacs when he was at Claiborne.

Yes, I am sure you are right, but I still think he is better than he looked in that race. I found this surprising quote by his trainer on the Bloodhorse website: "He seems to be OK," trainer Brad Cox. "'At the three, 3 1/2 (furlong pole), it looked like he kind of ranged up, but couldn't get by. Just not good enough. I don't have a whole lot of excuses right now.' Cox said he will talk with Anthony before making any decision about Caddo River's next start." Even his trainer says not good enough. No mention of the jockey holding him back. Was I seeing things? It sure looked like the jockey had a hard hold on him when he tried to run at the leader. I have seen comments about it on Twitter, so I'm not the only one who thinks that's what they saw. It just seems to me that the race was not that fast that he should have folded like that. I would sure like to know what BSF he got for that race. I bet it's well below his best. Hard Spun threw in a clunker at Oaklawn in his penultimate Derby prep. Then he went on to Turfway and won. I hope they give Caddo River another chance.

Happy Endings · Tue Mar 16, 2021 5:29 pm

I am still struggling with making sense of the Rebel. The winning BSF was 94, the Timeform number was 116; compared to the Smarty Jones numbers of 92 and 110 respectively. Not much separation there, or am I missing something? Am I stupid to think Caddo River can do better than he showed on Saturday? I don't know what his numbers were for the Rebel, so I can't compare apples to apples, but I would venture a guess that they were well below his numbers for the Smarty Jones. If so, then he should be capable of better than he showed in the Rebel, because he ran better than that in the Smarty Jones. How much better remains to be seen, of course, but I hope Cox can figure it out.

MTO · Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:20 pm

Happy Endings wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 5:29 pm I am still struggling with making sense of the Rebel. The winning BSF was 94, the Timeform number was 116; compared to the Smarty Jones numbers of 92 and 110 respectively. Not much separation there, or am I missing something? Am I stupid to think Caddo River can do better than he showed on Saturday? I don't know what his numbers were for the Rebel, so I can't compare apples to apples, but I would venture a guess that they were well below his numbers for the Smarty Jones. If so, then he should be capable of better than he showed in the Rebel, because he ran better than that in the Smarty Jones. How much better remains to be seen, of course, but I hope Cox can figure it out.

CADDO RIVER got an Equibase Speed Figure of 95 for the Rebel, and 101 for the Smarty Jones and 101 when he broke his maiden
Link to free Equibase profile.Click Results tab to see E Speed Figures for each race
https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Resul ... y=T&rbt=TB

Happy Endings · Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:27 pm

MTO wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:20 pm
Happy Endings wrote: ↑Tue Mar 16, 2021 5:29 pm I am still struggling with making sense of the Rebel. The winning BSF was 94, the Timeform number was 116; compared to the Smarty Jones numbers of 92 and 110 respectively. Not much separation there, or am I missing something? Am I stupid to think Caddo River can do better than he showed on Saturday? I don't know what his numbers were for the Rebel, so I can't compare apples to apples, but I would venture a guess that they were well below his numbers for the Smarty Jones. If so, then he should be capable of better than he showed in the Rebel, because he ran better than that in the Smarty Jones. How much better remains to be seen, of course, but I hope Cox can figure it out.
CADDO RIVER got an Equibase Speed Figure of 95 for the Rebel, and 101 for the Smarty Jones and 101 when he broke his maiden
Link to free Equibase profile.Click Results tab to see E Speed Figures for each race
https://www.equibase.com/profiles/Resul ... y=T&rbt=TB

Okay, that confirms my suspicions. He is better than he showed on Saturday. And I found this, which indicates they are running him in the Ark Derby and realize they miscalculated on Saturday. And maybe he won't be the high weight by 5 lbs. I was baffled by that when Concert Tour was already a graded stakes winner who should have been the high weight. Also wondering if he had too much time between races. Almost 2 months and he had had 2 months between his maiden win and the Smarty Jones. Well, Cox can figure it out:

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/e ... ddo-river/

MTO · Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:54 am

ATTACHMENT RATE nominated to non-graded Sir Shakleton Stakes at Gulfstream 3/27/2021. 7 furlongs dirt
ATTACHMENT RATE nominated to G3 Ghostzapper Stakes at Gulfstream 3/27/2021 1 1/8 mi dirt

AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM nominated to G2 Pan American at Gulfstream 3/27/2021 12 furlongs turf

ROCKET RELOAD (by Reload, son of Hard Spun) entered in non graded Melody of Colors 3/20/2021 Gulfstream 5 furlongs turf

Happy Endings · Fri Mar 19, 2021 11:45 am

ROCKANDAHARDPLACE won race #9 at Sam Houston Race Park on March 17. His record is now 30-6-4-4. He was also claimed.

video: https://www.shrp.com/horsemen-info/livereplay-videos

Happy Endings · Fri Mar 19, 2021 11:50 am

CHILLER won race #3 at Sam Houston on March 18. His record is now 3-2-0-0. He was claimed.

video: https://www.shrp.com/horsemen-info/livereplay-videos

Happy Endings · Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:32 pm

HARD NOT TO LOVE retired from racing.

https://www.drf.com/news/hard-not-love-retired-racing

Saban · Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:26 pm

Happy Endings wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:32 pm HARD NOT TO LOVE retired from racing.

https://www.drf.com/news/hard-not-love-retired-racing

Wish they were breeding her to Goldencents or Constitution.

Happy Endings · Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:58 pm

Saban wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:26 pm
Happy Endings wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:32 pm HARD NOT TO LOVE retired from racing.

https://www.drf.com/news/hard-not-love-retired-racing

Wish they were breeding her to Goldencents or Constitution.

I wish they had kept her at sprints. That's where she won races.

Happy Endings · Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:59 pm

HARD METAL won race #3 at Santa Anita today. His record is 6-1-1-0.

video: https://www.tvg.com/results

Saban · Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:20 pm

Saban wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:26 pm
Happy Endings wrote: ↑Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:32 pm HARD NOT TO LOVE retired from racing.

https://www.drf.com/news/hard-not-love-retired-racing

Wish they were breeding her to Goldencents or Constitution.

Apparently, they are breeding her to Curlin. I figured a racer like her would be bred to a top sire like Into Mischief or Tapit. I did not really think that Goldencents would have a shot, but Constitution maybe, or maybe Authentic, who should be getting a great book of mares in his first year at stud.

Happy Endings · Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:52 pm

Hard Spun has had 5 winners so far today.

RUMELI won race #8 at Tampa Bay today. His record is 3-1-0-0. Led the whole way. Nice win.

video: http://www.tampabaydowns.com/racing/replays-details

or https://www.tvg.com/results

Happy Endings · Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:59 pm

SUMMER IN SARATOGA won the Tom Benson Memorial Stakes at 1 1/16 Miles on Turf at the Fairgrounds today. Purse $150,000. Rather exciting finish. She got up just in time to win by a nose after being caught in traffic on the far turn and having to wait a bit, but she sure came running at the end. And she was coming off a 6 month layoff. She is Hard Spun's 85th Stakes winner.

replay: https://www.tvg.com/results

Happy Endings · Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:10 pm

DOUBLEOSEVEN won race #6 at Laurel Park today. His record is now 7-2-1-1.

video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZWvqMv8bkk

Happy Endings · Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:26 pm

BALLIVOR won race #4 at Laurel Park today. His record is now 50-8-6-8. Holy cow 50 races under his belt now.

video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZbtRuqhlzM

Happy Endings · Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:35 pm

ROOKERY won race #7 at Fairgrounds today. Her record is now 7-1-3-2. No longer a bridesmaid.

video: https://www.tvg.com/results

Happy Endings · Wed Mar 24, 2021 4:45 pm

REFI won race #5 at Parx today. His record is now 10-2-0-2.

video: https://www.tvg.com/results

MTO · Thu Mar 25, 2021 12:44 pm

HARD RYE GUY entered in G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks. Derby Prep race. Turfway Park. Sat 3/27/2021
He seems to do well on artificial surface at Turfway so he has a chance. He was a closing 4th in the last 3yo Derby prep stakes at Turfway after getting stuck in traffic.

PPs
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1867404

Happy Endings · Thu Mar 25, 2021 5:32 pm

MTO wrote: ↑Thu Mar 25, 2021 12:44 pm HARD RYE GUY entered in G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks. Derby Prep race. Turfway Park. Sat 3/27/2021
He seems to do well on artificial surface at Turfway so he has a chance. He was a closing 4th in the last 3yo Derby prep stakes at Turfway after getting stuck in traffic.

PPs
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... m3=1867404

I saw that and thought wouldn't that be wild if he ends up in the KD and Caddo River doesn't. I hope that won't be the case, but strange things can happen. Hard Rye Guy only has 1 win in 6 starts, so I don't think he would have much chance in the KD. That race is worth 100 points to the winner and 40 to the runner-up and none of those entered seem like good KD prospects. But then many of those entered in the KD every year aren't, so why not give it a shot, I guess.