2020 Keeneland September Sale

[Flanders]

After looking over the sell prices today, I would love for someone in the industry to be independent enough to not just throw out the normal gross, average, median numbers, but to actually go through the entire sale one by one and determine what percentage of yearlings made a profit for their breeder, what percentage broke even, and what percentages lost some money, moderate amount of money, and a metric FT of money. I honestly don't know how stud fees can't help but plummet this upcoming year. Since the industry completely embraced the idea of the commercial breeder, they are going to have to start playing by normal economic rules, especially with fewer and fewer buyers out there.

I think a lot of stud fees will go down but some will not. Even if someone tried to do that study, its really hard to say that X didn't make money because they could own a share in the stallion and not have to pay the stud fee, or have their own farm and resident vet, etc.

But ignoring that, there was a study released earlier this year that was based on yearling sales from 2001 to 2018. It says, its all estimated because of so many factors involved but less than 50% of yearlings sold at auction are profitable. Also that profitability decreased as the quality of the stallion decreased and that mares worth less than $100,000 were not profitable over a seven year investment period. Its really fascinating as it was a massive amount of yearlings they input data for. They say rough numbers, its between $20,000 - $35,000 to board/care, etc. for a mare for a year and raise her yearling to sell at auction plus stud fee. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/2/463

Taking their low end of $20,000 + say $10,000 stud fee that is 785 out of 2011 yearlings sold that didn't make money.
Going with their high end $35,000 + $10,000 stud fee that is 958 out of 2011 yearlings sold that didn't make money. There is going to be way more that didn't make stud fee since I'm using $10,000 as a base line for stud fee. I'd be surprised if 750 sold made some sort of profit.

[Flanders]

Here are some of the biggest losses and I probably missed a big fee stallion. Like Bernardini may have still been high in 2018.

War Front - 250k stud fee
Hip 799 - sold for $23,000

Tapit - 300k stud fee
Hip 1480 - sold for $30,000
Hip 1391 - sold for $45,000
Hip 1743 - sold for $75,000

MDO - 250k stud fee
Hip 1076 - sold for $50,000
Hip 1395 - sold for $60,000

Into Mischief - 100k stud fee
Hip 3346 - sold for $19,000
Hip 1542 - sold for $27,000
Hip 1627 - sold for $50,000

Uncle Mo - 125k stud fee
Hip 1044 - sold for $10,000
Hip 1978 - sold for $14,000
Hip 1107 - sold for $25,000
had 3 more sell in the 42-50k range

Speightstown - 100k stud fee
hip 992 - sold for $40,000

Quality Road - 70k stud fee
hip 1636 - sold for $20,000
hip 3163 - sold for $21,000
hip 1705 - sold for $22,000

Candy Ride - 80k stud fee
hip 1247 - sold for 9k
hip 1507 - sold for 17k
hip 1922 - sold for 18k
had 4 more sell for 22-45k

Gun Runner - 70k stud fee
hip 1419 - sold for 20k
hip 1183 - sold for 35k

Curlin - 150k stud fee
hip 1610 - sold for 23k
hip 1789 - sold for 30k

Tiznow - 50k stud fee
9 sold for under 10k

Kitten's Joy - 60k stud fee
had 3 sell for under 10k

Pioneerof The Nile - 110k stud fee
hip 2799 - 9k
hip 1843 - 10k
hip 2410 - 15k
had 2 more sell for 25 and 27k

Ghostzapper - 85k stud fee
hip 3033 - sold for 7k
hip 2007 - sold for 16k

[Mylute]

Should we count Kitten's Joy? because his kids usually never sell for a lot

[Squeaky]

I read that Larry Zap bought a Cupid colt acting as agent for a buyer. I only know him for his racehorse videos- didn’t know he is now a bloodstock agent.

[mariasmon]

I read that Larry Zap bought a Cupid colt acting as agent for a buyer. I only know him for his racehorse videos- didn’t know he is now a bloodstock agent.

Pretty sure he's been acting as a bloodstock agent for at least 10 years.

[Retrospectiv]

Here are some of the biggest losses and I probably missed a big fee stallion. Like Bernardini may have still been high in 2018.

Bernardini stood for $85,000 in 2018, and he had some bombbbbbbs

Yearlings sold for
$2500
$4000
$4000
$5000
$6000 ........
And these were not RNAs

$15,000 stallion Not This Time has had a better sale.

[Retrospectiv]

Unfortunately for Honor Code, doesn't look like HAP helped sell too many expensive yearlings either.

http://flex.keeneland.com/horsesearch/horsesearch.html

[KatieK101]

Unfortunately for Honor Code, doesn't look like HAP helped sell too many expensive yearlings either.

http://flex.keeneland.com/horsesearch/horsesearch.html

I was keeping an eye on the Honor Codes at Keeneland specifically for this reason, and yeah, I noticed the same thing. He didn't have a yearling sell for more than $260K. Of course we knew that we were going to see lower numbers in this sale anyway, but I was surprised he didn't have any break $300K.

But in his defense, the yearlings I was most excited to see were Outs: Blossomed (half to Sippian Harbor), Caressing (half to West Coast), and Casual Look (G1W in England). The filly half to Spielberg (Miss Squeal) did go through but she brought considerably less than Spielberg...

[Retrospectiv]

Unfortunately for Honor Code, doesn't look like HAP helped sell too many expensive yearlings either.

http://flex.keeneland.com/horsesearch/horsesearch.html

I was keeping an eye on the Honor Codes at Keeneland specifically for this reason, and yeah, I noticed the same thing. He didn't have a yearling sell for more than $260K. Of course we knew that we were going to see lower numbers in this sale anyway, but I was surprised he didn't have any break $300K.

But in his defense, the yearlings I was most excited to see were Outs: Blossomed (half to Sippian Harbor), Caressing (half to West Coast), and Casual Look (G1W in England). The filly half to Spielberg (Miss Squeal) did go through but she brought considerably less than Spielberg...

My saved list didn't copy over...... but 15 yearlings at $10,000 and under. Still a poor result on a $40,000 stud fee with a 2nd crop of runners.
California Chrome actually got fewer bottom barrel horses, though his 2 high sellers were at $50,000 (and I use CC for reference, not to pick on him, but they stood for the same fee and Chrome is exported, and still had fewer under $10,000 yearlings).

[Flanders]

I used the $20,000 to yearling cost for this, if you use $35,000 its going to make even less profitable. I didn't do all the stallions either but I can do more if anyone is curious about a stallion. This is profitable per number that actually sold.
2 were impossible because they stood for Private fees in 2018, American Pharoah(had 25 sell) and Awesome Again (had 3 sell), but I can assure you that both had yearlings that were not profitable.

Air Force Blue - 25k stud fee - 6 out of 17
Algorithms - 7.5k stud fee - 0 out of 1
American Freedom - 10k stud fee - 7 out of 19
Anchor Down - 10k - 2 out of 5
Animal Kingdom - 30k - 1 out of 6
Arrogate - 75k stud fee - 20 out of 26
Astern - 15k - 5 out of 9
Bal A Bali - 15k - 0 out of 13
Battle of Midway - 20k - 0 out of 1
Bayern - 15k - 1 out of 7
Bernardini - 85k - 9 out of 33
Big Blue Kitten - 15k - 1 out of 3
Blame - 12.5k - 14 out of 30
Bodemeister - 40k stud fee - 0 out of 4
Brody's Cause - 12.5k - 3 out of 5
Candy Ride - 80k stud fee - 20 out of 33
Constitution - 25k stud fee - 15 out of 19
Cupid - 12.5k stud fee - 12 out of 27
Curlin - 150k stud fee - 24 out of 29
Frosted - 50k - 23 out of 32
Ghostzapper - 85k - 19 out of 27
Goldenscents - 12.5k - 5 out of 13
Gun Runner - 70k stud fee - 27 out of 29
Hard Spun - 40k stud fee - 14 out of 30
Honor Code - 40k stud fee - 7 out of 30
Into Mischief - 100k stud fee - 49 out of 53
Kitten's Joy - 60k stud fee - 8 out of 18
Klimt - 10k - 11 out of 35
Lea - 7.5k - 3 out of 11
Liam's Map - 25k - 14 out of 24
MDO - 250k stud fee - 14 out of 18
Midnight Lute - 15k - 2 out of 9
Mohaymen - 7.5k - 7 out of 13
Not This Time - 15k - 13 out of 21
Orb - 25k stud fee - 1 out of 9
Pioneerof The Nile - 110k stud fee - 20 out of 31
Point of Entry - 20k - 6 out of 13
Quality Road - 70k stud fee - 26 out of 31
Runhappy - 25k stud fee - 9 out of 25
Speightstown - 100k stud fee - 15 out of 21
Street Sense - 35k stud fee - 22 out of 30
Tapit - 300k stud fee - 6 out of 14
Tiznow - 50k stud fee - 8 out of 30
Tonalist - 20k - 3 out of 20
Uncle Mo - 125k stud fee - 27 out of 38
War Front - 250k stud fee - 6 out of 9
Will Take Charge - 30k stud fee - 0 out of 14

[Slewfan2]

Unfortunately for Honor Code, doesn't look like HAP helped sell too many expensive yearlings either.

http://flex.keeneland.com/horsesearch/horsesearch.html

I was keeping an eye on the Honor Codes at Keeneland specifically for this reason, and yeah, I noticed the same thing. He didn't have a yearling sell for more than $260K. Of course we knew that we were going to see lower numbers in this sale anyway, but I was surprised he didn't have any break $300K.

But in his defense, the yearlings I was most excited to see were Outs: Blossomed (half to Sippian Harbor), Caressing (half to West Coast), and Casual Look (G1W in England). The filly half to Spielberg (Miss Squeal) did go through but she brought considerably less than Spielberg...

I’m not surprised...even as early as last September, buyers seemed to give up on him....surprising given how highly regarded he was. I get that at the time he hadn’t had any breakout babies, but still... it was early. I LOVE him - as the last big son of Indy, I badly want him to succeed, but while he has sired talented horses like HAP and Max (and I love Creed), he’s very not and cold...and most of his runners have little speed. I don’t know if his yearlings aren’t good looking or if reports on his offspring are awful, but it was obvious as early as last September that breeders and buyers have essentially dumped HC. Obviously his stud fee will be slashed.

[KatieK101]

Unfortunately for Honor Code, doesn't look like HAP helped sell too many expensive yearlings either.

http://flex.keeneland.com/horsesearch/horsesearch.html

I was keeping an eye on the Honor Codes at Keeneland specifically for this reason, and yeah, I noticed the same thing. He didn't have a yearling sell for more than $260K. Of course we knew that we were going to see lower numbers in this sale anyway, but I was surprised he didn't have any break $300K.

But in his defense, the yearlings I was most excited to see were Outs: Blossomed (half to Sippian Harbor), Caressing (half to West Coast), and Casual Look (G1W in England). The filly half to Spielberg (Miss Squeal) did go through but she brought considerably less than Spielberg...

I’m not surprised...even as early as last September, buyers seemed to give up on him....surprising given how highly regarded he was. I get that at the time he hadn’t had any breakout babies, but still... it was early. I LOVE him - as the last big son of Indy, I badly want him to succeed, but while he has sired talented horses like HAP and Max (and I love Creed), he’s very not and cold...and most of his runners have little speed. I don’t know if his yearlings aren’t good looking or if reports on his offspring are awful, but it was obvious as early as last September that breeders and buyers have essentially dumped HC. Obviously his stud fee will be slashed.

I wondered if buyers were turned off by his start at stud, or if his yearlings just don't look good. I went back and looked at the results from the 2018 and 2019 September Sale; his 2019 crop wasn't great but it was better than his 2020 crop. Meanwhile, his 2018 crop sold extremely well, at first glance (fun fact: Max Player was an RNA for $180k in that sale!). Anyway, I have a hard time believing his yearlings just don't look good.

[Diver52]

Thanks for all the work, Flanders. I sometimes wonder why breeders who clearly intend to sell breed to notoriously uncommercial stallions like Tiznow and Midnight Lute. Lookin at Lucky is another although he's not on the list. I guess if you are breeding to a new stallion like Klimt, you are just hoping to strike gold.

[CorridorZ75]

I think once a sire isn't considered an "It" sire, a lot of buyers just don't even bother looking at their yearlings. It takes at least two buyers to raise the price so if few are looking to begin with, a seller is already behind the eight ball.

[Slewfan2]

I was keeping an eye on the Honor Codes at Keeneland specifically for this reason, and yeah, I noticed the same thing. He didn't have a yearling sell for more than $260K. Of course we knew that we were going to see lower numbers in this sale anyway, but I was surprised he didn't have any break $300K.

But in his defense, the yearlings I was most excited to see were Outs: Blossomed (half to Sippian Harbor), Caressing (half to West Coast), and Casual Look (G1W in England). The filly half to Spielberg (Miss Squeal) did go through but she brought considerably less than Spielberg...

I’m not surprised...even as early as last September, buyers seemed to give up on him....surprising given how highly regarded he was. I get that at the time he hadn’t had any breakout babies, but still... it was early. I LOVE him - as the last big son of Indy, I badly want him to succeed, but while he has sired talented horses like HAP and Max (and I love Creed), he’s very not and cold...and most of his runners have little speed. I don’t know if his yearlings aren’t good looking or if reports on his offspring are awful, but it was obvious as early as last September that breeders and buyers have essentially dumped HC. Obviously his stud fee will be slashed.

I wondered if buyers were turned off by his start at stud, or if his yearlings just don't look good. I went back and looked at the results from the 2018 and 2019 September Sale; his 2019 crop wasn't great but it was better than his 2020 crop. Meanwhile, his 2018 crop sold extremely well, at first glance (fun fact: Max Player was an RNA for $180k in that sale!). Anyway, I have a hard time believing his yearlings just don't look good.

Probably the former, although it’s not like he didn’t have any winners by the time of September 2019 sales - he just hadn’t had any potential stars. HAP was highly promising, but he didn’t break his maiden until October. I don’t know what buyers expected - did they seriously expect HC to sire fast, early babies? If so, they didn’t know anything about the Indy line - or HC himself. So essentially they created unreasonable expectations and gave up on him before his first crop had even finished their first full year. You would think that siring HAP and GSW/multiple GSP in Max would have earned HC some success this September, but nope.

[Slewfan2]

I think once a sire isn't considered an "It" sire, a lot of buyers just don't even bother looking at their yearlings. It takes at least two buyers to raise the price so if few are looking to begin with, a seller is already behind the eight ball.

I agree, but in HC’s case, he was extremely highly regarded...his first yearlings sold well, behind only American Pharaoh, I believe. I think my problem is that the market rushed to a very premature judgment ....It’s not just the buyers, though - some of the RNAs were incredibly low, otherwise they wouldn’t have sold for peanuts. That’s why I wondered in another post if Honor Code’s last two crops were....unattractive, or not as good looking as his first,

[Flanders]

In Honor Code's case, I think it might just be because its his 3rd crop. Its hard to get good mares for a stallions 3rd and 4th crops because breeders are afraid to send good mares those years. They know the judgement will be out already on the stallion at the point those foals go to the sales, so they are usually a stallion's worst crops in terms of mare quality. Most of the one's who sold for really low, under 10k, had pretty light pages under the 1st and 2nd dams, none had bad pedigrees. The one's dam had produced 5 foals of racing age and no winners, that isn't going to inspire bidding. I think his stud fee will go down but I think he will attract mares next year. It would have greatly helped him if Honor AP wasn't retired though.

[Diver52]

yeah, I've heard that it's the third and fourth crops that are hard to sell to potential breeders because breeders know they've missed lightning (if any) and are just stuck if the stud isn't producing commercial foals. So the first year or two there is enthusiasm, then a few years of wait and see (and chasing the new flavor of the month) and if the results aren't there, commercial breeders move on. Same dynamic and restaurants in trendy locations--my sister lived in Santa Barbara and there were always good restaurants to visit, but few of them survived over a year because the New Shiny Thing arrived.

[Slewfan2]

In Honor Code's case, I think it might just be because its his 3rd crop. Its hard to get good mares for a stallions 3rd and 4th crops because breeders are afraid to send good mares those years. They know the judgement will be out already on the stallion at the point those foals go to the sales, so they are usually a stallion's worst crops in terms of mare quality. Most of the one's who sold for really low, under 10k, had pretty light pages under the 1st and 2nd dams, none had bad pedigrees. The one's dam had produced 5 foals of racing age and no winners, that isn't going to inspire bidding. I think his stud fee will go down but I think he will attract mares next year. It would have greatly helped him if Honor AP wasn't retired though.

That explains this year, though only if others in his crop didn’t experience the same kind of dip...excluding Constitution (too hot for that to happen) and American Pharaoh (he’s Teflon). What about last year? Does his lack of big winners before last September completely explain away his huge drop in sales prices?

Although I’ve been disappointed in Honor Code, relative to my expectations, to be fair he has had a big horse in his first crop and another really cool horse in Max. So, I have not given up on him as far as being a big success at stud. My question is - have there been examples of highly regarded sires whose first offspring sold very well, the market/breeders abandoned them (in terms of getting good books/sales prices) and who then rebounded after performances on track warranted it?

I’ve been discussing this with my friend, another HC fan. He thinks it’s possible that HC needs to be bred to different kinds of mares, possibly speedier mares. Possibly his first books included primarily stamina oriented mares because breeders initially weren’t sure if he’d throw Classic type horses. I think this makes sense...

My worry, as a fan, is that if HC’s fee is reduced again, that his chances of getting any decent mares will be gone since his reputation will essentially be in the toilet (unfair - he hasn’t been bad, just inconsistent). Lane’s End reduced his fee last year, and doing so again would reek of desperation, especially since they don’t have the reputation of being reactionary.

[Slewfan2]

yeah, I've heard that it's the third and fourth crops that are hard to sell to potential breeders because breeders know they've missed lightning (if any) and are just stuck if the stud isn't producing commercial foals. So the first year or two there is enthusiasm, then a few years of wait and see (and chasing the new flavor of the month) and if the results aren't there, commercial breeders move on. Same dynamic and restaurants in trendy locations--my sister lived in Santa Barbara and there were always good restaurants to visit, but few of them survived over a year because the New Shiny Thing arrived.

That doesn’t explain the significant drop in his sales results last year, though...it seems to me that buyers lost enthusiasm very quickly for HC.