Justify vs AP at stud

[BaroqueAgain1]

He's got a nice, deep shoulder and chest. Hindquarters look strong. Can't find much wrong with him.

[Treve]

He's an undefeated TC winner as of now, but where does that leave him if he loses against older males, or even up and coming 3yos down the line. What if he loses the classic or the PWC?
It's a little too early to call 200k, if the first TC winner in 37 years with ideal confo, 8 G1 wins out of 9, 9 Graded stakes wins out of 10 from an emerging branch of a well established sireline couldn't fill his book at 200k.
I still think 100-125k is more likely. I could see maybe up to 150k as the advertised fee with the 'real' fee being lower.

That yearling photo isn't a proper confo photo but he's slightly over at the knee there, long pasterned in the front, a little post-y in the back (things that could have changed as he's grown). He's also a little cow-hocked and toed out in the back in his yearling sales video or seems to be, especially while walking away at the end. But those things might have corrected as he's grown.

I do remember thinking he looked a little post-legged in the hind in some photos I've seen earlier on during his campaign but it's hard to say with photos that weren't caught with the intent of showing conformation. I don't see anything glaringly wrong or bothersome from the knees up though. His head is a little coarse maybe but that's aesthetic. He's got a nice hip, nice back, nice loin, good chest. Nice proportions. His shoulder maybe not a sloping as I'd like based on that yearling photo.

ETA: his shoulder looks better in those side view photos of him. But he's still post-legged in the back (from his stifle down to his pasterns) and his pasterns are too long in the front, still looks a little oatk. He's a bit longer hipped than I thought but I stand by everything else I said - he's got a great chest, nice proportions, nice loin, nice back and while long his hip is far from weak.
Also he's only 3yo so those pasterns could improve as tbs sometimes look long pasterned while they're still young and running but grow into them. Not sure it's likely in his case since his yearling photo showed the same thing (and the same disparity between his front and hind pasterns)

[CoronadosQuest]

Getty Images / New York Post

Not the best but close lol

[bare it all]

I haven't seen Justify in the flesh, but I can confirm that Pharoah is one of the most well-conformed horses I've ever laid eyes on. Not that my eyes have seen a lot of horse, but you know when one looks "amazing" when you see it. Everything about him is in-sync and balanced. Think "starting pitcher" sort of build. The perfect mechanics produce the speed and stamina. Even at a walk, he just glides without wasted motion. He's not an imposing individual and I think that matches well with almost any mare physically - add in the race record and the stallion line and he has all the makings of a stallion. He female family is his "weakness" - if you could call it that.

Justify I haven't seen in the flesh. From photos, he looks more like a imposing brut sort of horse. Muscle on muscle. Like a big runningback - the power producing the speed moreso than perfect mechanics. Like Curlin, perhaps? Bred to the right physical of mare, he could be successful. His sireline is sneaky potent - Storm Cat mixes SO well with other lines out there...Distorted Humor/Smart Strike/UBS etc plus the chance to start linebreeding back to him gives you something like Lady Aurelia.

[Somnambulist]

To gush I really did just love to watch AP gallop. It was so fluid I felt hypnotized watching it. I hope I never lose my memory... watching him run by with some coffee in my hand is such a nice memory.

Treve, if he loses once or twice going forward I still feel like they can get away from it. I definitely don't know as much as a lot of you here but Scat Daddy's loss is so fresh and I think they could get the play off that. Who knows.

As an aside I really miss those conformation clinics we used to have on here. I learned so much.

[bare it all]

I've now seen Justify in the flesh.

I was most certainly wow'd. Not just because of his accomplishments, but because he has a presence. Where American Pharoah is much like a child's pony you'd want to love on, Justify is all horse. Not in a mean way - just in a THIS IS ALL MINE sort of presence. He was brought out with 3YO maidens and those were some lovely horses (well bred group, tbh). He looked like a 5YO horse among them.

[Diver52]

It's too bad we won't get to see him as a 5 year old horse on the track. Makes one appreciate Chrome's career all the more.

[Treve]

I really think Chrome losing his TC bid was a blessing in disguise. I spend hours daydreaming of what could have been if Pharoah had raced as an older. And what probably could be if Justify were to race as an older. Gun Runner is another example of a horse that only got better and stronger as an older male.

And thanks Coronado much better picture!

[Diver52]

We were also "lucky" that Chrome didn't have a very appealing pedigree so that his earning capacity on the track wasn't "negligible" compared to his stud fee possibility. I sometimes wish there could be a rule that half of all colts had to be gelded--it would certainly improve the quality of older-horse racing!

[BaroqueAgain1]

If you like all-geldings-all-the-time racing, you should love the races in Hong Kong.
Japan, on the other hand, doesn't seem to geld any of its horses, no matter how rank or 'quirky' they are on the track.
I kind of like our more middle-of-the-road approach to the Ultimate Equipment Change.

[Treve]

Japan does geld but not always. And it's not like our gelding choices are always judicious in the long run (there are a few famous geldings I think qualify for the 'what if'... line of thinking past and present ). I don't think gelding is the ideal approach in a breed where we have concerns about bottlenecking etc. Each time you remove an individual from the gene pool it can be a serious loss of DNA when the gene pool is limited to begin with.

However Japan makes it work by making the money you can earn in purses more appealing that money you can earn in the breeding shed. We can either increase purses across the board, or maybe lay down strict rules about stud fees. I think generally the market does a good job of regulating itself (if a fee is too steep for breeders to tolerate they just don't visit that stud) so the solution imo lies in making racing longer more appealing. The Pegasus I think is a nudge in the right direction. Sponsoring series for older horses or carding new races for olders with the potential of becoming graded stakes and perhaps down the line even G1s. Bump the purses up of distance races to make them a more appealing goal towards which horses should work (and there's no cutting corners with those, it requires a minimum amount of fitness and conditioning that can only come with time and some cases, age).

But I know, resources are limited, we can only support so many large purses here...

[Miss Woodford]

If you like all-geldings-all-the-time racing, you should love the races in Hong Kong.
Japan, on the other hand, doesn't seem to geld any of its horses, no matter how rank or 'quirky' they are on the track.
I kind of like our more middle-of-the-road approach to the Ultimate Equipment Change.

Japan's stallions don't often retire after their 3yo season. Even Triple Crown winners - Deep Impact raced at 4 and Orfevre raced at 5.

Several major American races had periods where geldings were barred from racing, namely the Preakness (1920-1934) and Belmont (1919-1956; most stakes in NY seem to have had this condition through these years). The Arc de Triomphe, of course, still does not allow them, which was really unfortunate for Cirrus des Aigles.

[Treve]

I think Japan's Classics or some of them are also not open to geldings if I'm not mistaken and they've got several important races on the calendar doing the same. I believe the only graded stakes for 2yos in the UK and Europe also tend to be non-geldings only.