Under tack show times vs. racetrack performance

[neighhey]

Over on the "In Memoriam" thread, the question was posed (after the fatal breakdown of a Bowman's Band colt at F-T Timonium under tack show) if any of the young horses who post the fastest times turn into superior runners on the track and how many don't make the races at all. I decided to research this topic and, to start, selected one sale at random. Right now I've only got raw data but thought some of you might be interested. I looked at the 2015 OBS March Selected 2YO sale. My "fast" group included those who worked 1/8 under 10 seconds, and my "slow" group were 10.4 seconds or higher.

[Key: Horse's Name, Highest Racing Class Achieved, Number of Starts (*=raced in 2018, #=no starts in 2018, but recent workout), sale price]

"Fast" under tack time:

9.3 seconds
Acapulco G2SW (7 starts): $750,000
Abe Lincoln winner (12 starts*): $235,000
9.4
Freemark winner (27 starts*): $800,000
Gametown placed (3 starts): $675,000
Devoted One placed (1 start): $170,000
Constellation G1SW (14 starts):$800,000
Naylor winner (14 starts): $370,000
Supervisor winner (15 starts#): $440,000
Makes Good Sense winner (32 starts*): $145,000
Dearest G3SW (10 starts): $150,000
Joy Drive winner (13 starts*): $400,000
Gorgo Barows winner (10 starts*): $360,000
Splashtackular placed (6 starts): $200,000
Sable Courir winner (19 starts): $350,000
Sea Wizard winner (2 starts): $190,000
Undisputed winner (2 starts): $450,000
Freedom Tower winner (4 starts): $950,000
John Q. Public MSP winner (9 starts): $50,000
Miku Athena unraced: $150,000
Bosses Money winner (20 starts): $75,000
True Arch winner (18 starts*): $75,000
Flower Kisser winner (11 starts#): $150,000

"Slow" under tack time:

11.2 seconds
Striscetta winner (18 starts*): $15,000
Voracious Affair placed (17 starts): $2000
11.1
Gio Panelli placed (16 starts): $13,000
11.0
Useung Line winner (13 starts): $50,000
10.4
Cinque winner (19 starts): $30,000 RNA
Tainted Paint winner (9 starts): $37,000 RNA
Imperial Roman winner (4 starts): $20,000
Candy Assay placed (15 starts): $100,000
Frank Conversation G2SW (18 starts*): $120,000
Mr. Banker placed (1 start): $22,000
Heavenly Lucky placed (10 starts#): $80,000 RNA
Chico Gris unplaced (6 starts): $15,000
Crypto Hold multiple gsp winner (28 starts): $20,000
Sea Thief winner (22 starts*): $70,000
Thoristic winner (23 starts*): $17,000 RNA


I will look at the 1/4 works later, and plan to look at other sales results to ensure a representative sample, but I thought these first data points were interesting.

[BaroqueAgain1]

Thank you for doing the work, Neighhey.
IIRC, Acapulco is the Wesley Ward-trained Scat Daddy filly who was a top sprinter for Coolmore. So, the fastest 2yo out of that sale did turn out to be a very good runner.

[Flanders]

Nyquist worked in 10.2 at the 2015 FT Florida 2yo in training sale. The fastest work of that sale was 10.0.

I'll Have Another worked in 10.2 at the 2011 OBS Spring 2yo in training sale. The fastest work of his day/the sale was 9.4.

[bare it all]

For the fast group, I've added in the current record/lifetime earnings per horse, per equibase.

Only 3 horses have been profitable at the races, not assuming upkeep cost for them.
Total Spend: 7,935,000
Total winnings: 2,550,361

Acapulco G2SW (7 starts): $750,000 --- 7-4-1-1 282,328
Abe Lincoln winner (12 starts*): $235,000 --- I'm seeing no races for this Discreet Cat colt
Freemark winner (27 starts*): $800,000 --- gelded 27-1-9-5 141,565
Gametown placed (3 starts): $675,000 ---3-0-2-0, 25,907, last sold at KEENOV16 for $2,500
Devoted One placed (1 start): $170,000 --- 1-0-1-0 (in 10/2015) 10,400
Constellation G1SW (14 starts):$800,000 --- 14-5-5-1 619,809
Naylor winner (14 starts): $370,000 --- 14-2-1-2 75,701
Supervisor winner (15 starts#): $440,000 --- 15-3-3-0 67,947
Makes Good Sense winner (32 starts*): $145,000 --- 32-3-3-4 43,786
Dearest G3SW (10 starts): $150,000 --- 10-5-1-2 331,550
Joy Drive winner (13 starts*): $400,000 --- gelded, 13-3-4-3 141,998
Gorgo Barows winner (10 starts*): $360,000 ---10-4-2-1 497,831 (stakes in Japan)
Splashtackular placed (6 starts): $200,000 ---6-0-1-2 25,365 sold KEEJAN18 $25k
Sable Courir winner (19 starts): $350,000 --- no races
Sea Wizard winner (2 starts): $190,000 ---2-1-1-0 39,000
Undisputed winner (2 starts): $450,000 --- 2-1-0-0 30,250
Freedom Tower winner (4 starts): $950,000 --- 4-1-0-1 32,100
John Q. Public MSP winner (9 starts): $50,000 --- 9-1-1-2 106,770
Miku Athena unraced: $150,000 --- no races
Bosses Money winner (20 starts): $75,000 --- 20-3-0-0 26,136
True Arch winner (18 starts*): $75,000 --- 18-2-2-1 48,680
Flower Kisser winner (11 starts#): $150,000 ---11-1-2-0 11,238

[BaroqueAgain1]

That's a lot of money spent for not much return.
I know owning racehorses is a great way to turn a large fortune into a small one, but I wonder if it's worse for these under-tack sales.

[bare it all]

That's a lot of money spent for not much return.
I know owning racehorses is a great way to turn a large fortune into a small one, but I wonder if it's worse for these under-tack sales.

I don't think anyone owns a racehorse expecting to make it big... but yeah, that's pretty terrible for that small sample size.

I think it would be an interesting study to follow a group... say just a single year of MD or FL bred horses? For maybe 2-3 years once they reach racing age. How many of the crop are sold, how many race and what $ associated for their cost/earnings. A relatively small sample, as I think trying to look at a whole crop or even KY breds would just be too much data.

[bare it all]

Also, I think this is a great perspective to keep in mind when we see operations selling off their "big horse/mare" to whatever farm or breeder. SO MUCH MONEY is going into these operations. Sell your Songbird to pay for the dozens of no-names.

This makes Sol Kumin and these "mega partnerships" look brilliant - buying into relatively known commodities and hoping for just a little more ROI and/or spreading the potential negative investment. Not a fan, but from a financial standpoint, its smarter.

[neighhey]

For the fast group, I've added in the current record/lifetime earnings per horse, per equibase.

Only 3 horses have been profitable at the races, not assuming upkeep cost for them.
Total Spend: 7,935,000
Total winnings: 2,550,361

Acapulco G2SW (7 starts): $750,000 --- 7-4-1-1 282,328
Abe Lincoln winner (12 starts*): $235,000 --- I'm seeing no races for this Discreet Cat colt
Freemark winner (27 starts*): $800,000 --- gelded 27-1-9-5 141,565
Gametown placed (3 starts): $675,000 ---3-0-2-0, 25,907, last sold at KEENOV16 for $2,500
Devoted One placed (1 start): $170,000 --- 1-0-1-0 (in 10/2015) 10,400
Constellation G1SW (14 starts):$800,000 --- 14-5-5-1 619,809
Naylor winner (14 starts): $370,000 --- 14-2-1-2 75,701
Supervisor winner (15 starts#): $440,000 --- 15-3-3-0 67,947
Makes Good Sense winner (32 starts*): $145,000 --- 32-3-3-4 43,786
Dearest G3SW (10 starts): $150,000 --- 10-5-1-2 331,550
Joy Drive winner (13 starts*): $400,000 --- gelded, 13-3-4-3 141,998
Gorgo Barows winner (10 starts*): $360,000 ---10-4-2-1 497,831 (stakes in Japan)
Splashtackular placed (6 starts): $200,000 ---6-0-1-2 25,365 sold KEEJAN18 $25k
Sable Courir winner (19 starts): $350,000 --- no races
Sea Wizard winner (2 starts): $190,000 ---2-1-1-0 39,000
Undisputed winner (2 starts): $450,000 --- 2-1-0-0 30,250
Freedom Tower winner (4 starts): $950,000 --- 4-1-0-1 32,100
John Q. Public MSP winner (9 starts): $50,000 --- 9-1-1-2 106,770
Miku Athena unraced: $150,000 --- no races
Bosses Money winner (20 starts): $75,000 --- 20-3-0-0 26,136
True Arch winner (18 starts*): $75,000 --- 18-2-2-1 48,680
Flower Kisser winner (11 starts#): $150,000 ---11-1-2-0 11,238

Thanks for adding this information! I had considering including it when I made the initial post, but a desire to remain awake for my 12 hour shift the next day sort of squashed that idea.

Regarding Abe Lincoln, he's racing in the UK. Doing quite well over the AW, as his last 5 starts have yielded 2 wins and 3 thirds. I realized as I was looking up these stats, that I'd actually caught his most recent start on TVG (3rd place at Lingfield going 10 furlongs). https://www.racingpost.com/profile/hors ... ncoln/form

I'm slowly working my way through all the 2YO sales results from 2015. Hopefully, I'll have something in the way of statistics to post early next week.

[Katewerk]

That's a lot of money spent for not much return.
I know owning racehorses is a great way to turn a large fortune into a small one, but I wonder if it's worse for these under-tack sales.

I don't think anyone owns a racehorse expecting to make it big... but yeah, that's pretty terrible for that small sample size. [snip]

There must be a sweet spot for auction price vs earnings return on investment -- a mid point at which track earnings are most likely to exceed the purchase price. Or at least, a less sour spot. $70k? 25K? Has anyone studied it? Seems like a no-brainer that the serious buyer would crunch that data to see what it spits out.

[Treve]

Nyquist worked in 10.2 at the 2015 FT Florida 2yo in training sale. The fastest work of that sale was 10.0.

I'll Have Another worked in 10.2 at the 2011 OBS Spring 2yo in training sale. The fastest work of his day/the sale was 9.4.

Seems to me like of the ones who broke the 10 second barrier, Acapulco has been the most successful but she's a sprinter. Those two won the Kentucky Derby and breeze at a nearly 'slow' time. The fast times are flashy but not sure they're indicative of success... maybe as a sprinter?