2017 Stallion Fees - Changes?

[Kelly Ann]

Also doesn't 30k for Exaggerator seem a little ridiculous?

Yes it does,..and not to grind on it, Super saver went from $65K to $50K, but still way overpriced IMO

I was surprised to see Super Saver got 154 mares this year. I thought he'd be popular with his success last year but didn't think he'd attract that many at the higher fee.

That's assuming all 154 mares were actually at the advertised fee though. If they all were paying the 65k, I can't understand the drop in stud fee, so it suggests pretty heavily that his mares were getting a significant discount.

154 @ 65k a pop is just a tick over 10 million in the bank.
200 @ 50k a pop is exactly 10 million, plus 50 extra foals out there over saturating the market.

[Mel Mae]

Yes it does,..and not to grind on it, Super saver went from $65K to $50K, but still way overpriced IMO

I was surprised to see Super Saver got 154 mares this year. I thought he'd be popular with his success last year but didn't think he'd attract that many at the higher fee.

That's assuming all 154 mares were actually at the advertised fee though. If they all were paying the 65k, I can't understand the drop in stud fee, so it suggests pretty heavily that his mares were getting a significant discount.

154 @ 65k a pop is just a tick over 10 million in the bank.
200 @ 50k a pop is exactly 10 million, plus 50 extra foals out there over saturating the market.

That's not me assuming because I know he was discounted. I'm surprised he got that many mares at any fee over about $40- $50k. (And I know someone who got a discount for sending multiple mares and it wasn't as low as those prices.).

[Insane Crazy]

Also doesn't 30k for Exaggerator seem a little ridiculous?

Had this discussion on another thread when he was retired, and suggested they'd start him out between $25,000 - $30,000 using Bodemeister at Winstar as my comp. So, I am not surprised at this level to start, but will say again, while we went to Bodemeister in his first season (successfully, I might add), we won't be considering Exaggerator.

Under that perspective then yeah it's not surprising but I'm not sure if it's entirely sensical.
On a slightly different but related topic, if Chrome were to win the BCC and the Pegasus, at what price do you think they should start him, and what price do you think they actually will?
(And for you personally, what would be the max price you'd consider him for?)

Also interested to hear your take on Chrome, HB! Always love your insight.

[Horsebagger]

I personally can't get a feel yet on where this stallion's fee gets set when all is said and done. Lot's of variables I'm not privy to that will go into the equation.

-I don't think they likely had to pay a lot to acquire the horse to begin with, so there's not a big number out there to recoup through stallion fees. Acquisition recovery is almost always the primary objective in setting a first year fee, imo.

-How much does the windfall in racing purse winnings off set the profit? Often (like American Pharoah) the breeder wasn't in the waterfall of racing profits like we have here. So does Taylor Made focus on making this horse a long term stallion play and price him affordably or try to maximize profits immediately in years 1-2 by throwing out a big fee target and negotiate off of any interest at that level?

-How many mares are lined up through Taylor Made's client's and now China Horse Club to go to him initially? The more committed, the more likely they push the fee higher. My instincts tell me that they have some, but not an overwhelming number, even though TM is primarily a broodmare farm. Since UBS passed, they haven't had a high priced stallion in their shed they needed to support. Are those mares still there and those owners committed to this stallion at whatever fee?

-Although he's coming with a pretty damn impressive racing record, his bloodlines are still what they are. Pulpit sire line is quality, but the dam side will always be a problem in recruiting mares, imo. If his dam was quality, why was she in California breeding to Lucky Pulpit?

So in making an educated guess, i'll cast a wide net and say he could be anywhere between $100,000 and $200,000 ('wow, thanks HB') and say $125,000 as a target over/under ('you're welcome').

Interested to hear other's thoughts.

Side note....I'll add Medaglia D'oro to the list of current stallions in line for a bump above the $150,000. To at least $175,000, maybe $200,000. He'll still get a full book of quality mares at that number.

And add Street Sense to the list of those getting lowered.

[Mel Mae]

I personally can't get a feel yet on where this stallion's fee gets set when all is said and done. Lot's of variables I'm not privy to that will go into the equation.

-I don't think they likely had to pay a lot to acquire the horse to begin with, so there's not a big number out there to recoup through stallion fees. Acquisition recovery is almost always the primary objective in setting a first year fee, imo.

-How much does the windfall in racing purse winnings off set the profit? Often (like American Pharoah) the breeder wasn't in the waterfall of racing profits like we have here. So does Taylor Made focus on making this horse a long term stallion play and price him affordably or try to maximize profits immediately in years 1-2 by throwing out a big fee target and negotiate off of any interest at that level?

-How many mares are lined up through Taylor Made's client's and now China Horse Club to go to him initially? The more committed, the more likely they push the fee higher. My instincts tell me that they have some, but not an overwhelming number, even though TM is primarily a broodmare farm. Since UBS passed, they haven't had a high priced stallion in their shed they needed to support. Are those mares still there and those owners committed to this stallion at whatever fee?

-Although he's coming with a pretty damn impressive racing record, his bloodlines are still what they are. Pulpit sire line is quality, but the dam side will always be a problem in recruiting mares, imo. If his dam was quality, why was she in California breeding to Lucky Pulpit?

So in making an educated guess, i'll cast a wide net and say he could be anywhere between $100,000 and $200,000 ('wow, thanks HB') and say $125,000 as a target over/under ('you're welcome').

Interested to hear other's thoughts.

Side note....I'll add Medaglia D'oro to the list of current stallions in line for a bump above the $150,000. To at least $175,000, maybe $200,000. He'll still get a full book of quality mares at that number.

And add Street Sense to the list of those getting lowered.

Do you think they'll limit Chrome's book or take whatever comes? I think that'll play a part in the fee but UBS's big years was so long ago (and I'm too lazy to pull up the stats) that I can't remember if they limited him for a higher fee or did the "come one, come all" approach.

I think Medaglia d'Oro deserves a big bump. I think he probably deserves $250,000 more than War Front does (not saying he'll go there, just that he deserves to).

[Somnambulist]

I don't know if he can really be compared to AP. Chrome is probably one of the most accomplished horses to retire to stud in awhile, but winning the TC trumps all. AP's own breeding isn't that sexy but I don't know if it needs to be with a TC victory.

Chrome's lines are just as unsexy, if not more. He's attractive to me put has always appeared kind of pretty lean. Which is NBD. I just don't see reasonably how they could justify 6 figures for him. If Taylor Made was so sure of a product why have they spent the better part of the past 2 years marketing him as they have? It's been odd to observe. Your product should be selling itself.. and furthermore you shouldn't be bringing this much attention to it. But hey, it worked for Ramsey.

I don't really know why. Breeders didn't even lose their minds with AP.. I don't see why they would here. My guess is nothing north of $75k. You have a lot of other very good studs in that bracket.

[Horsebagger]

Upon further reflection (and a few phone calls to people who know better than me) I am way off on the guess. Similar to my preseason 'Giants will win the Super Bowl' bet.

Som is way more right than I was, I think, in retrospect. The ownership group's breeding capacity doesn't seem to be enough to carry the fee higher and he isn't commanding the market demand from the best mares to think six figures is in play. And barring injury, the horse might be worth more on the racetrack than in the shed as long as he keeps performing at his current level. Imagine that? And think about what that might mean for 2017.

[Treve]

I find Chrome's dam has a better pedigree than Pharoah's but Love the Chase's ability as a producer is more suspect than Littleprincessemma. Plus she is linebred 3x3 to Numbered Account and 3x4 Northern Dancer... that only one of her 3 could win at all doesn't flatter her much. She gave her all on the first one Littleprincessemma's dam side is not sexy, but 2 out of 3 foals are G1 placed or higher, blacktype earners. The first one is a winner and managed to break 80k after being bred to a stallion who currently stands for 2000$. That says good things about her as a producer I think.
Sire line... If Tapit is Tapit by Pulpit, what does that say about Lucky Pulpit? I will say in his favour, his high earners aside from Chrome seem to be mostly iron clad war horses who grind their ways to high earnings, and I do like durability (Chrome is pretty durable too). But on the other hand... Pharoah's sire line has a better on-track performance record as individual race horses until Fappiano. And I like that they stamp each other. Pharoah moved like PotN moved like Empire Maker moved like Unbridled.

Chrome has nice confo and better movement but has some more obvious flaws than Pharoah... Pharoah's body is pretty perfect, but his neck and ears are less aesthetically pleasing than Chrome's. That's about the only flaw I can find on him. Plus Triple Crown trumps all.

I feel Cal Chrome is an other Sunday Silence in terms of market appeal to American breeders. Unless all the Chromies suddenly win the lottery and support him. I feel if TM is smart they'll start him at a lower price than what the market would tolerate as a maximum. 60k keeps popping in my mind. It could be interesting if he ends up shuttling at some point with CHC's obvious ambitions of creating a TB breeding industry there. And since their classics are for 4 yos, wouldn't surprise me if they breed on SH time in spite of being in the Northern Hemisphere.

If he does stay in training for an other year THAT would be a treat for the sport.

[Somnambulist]

Things are a lot different now than in 2008-2009, but what did Curlin start at? I was trying to think of the last horse to go to stud as accomplished as Chrome and was left with him. Maybe Gio Ponti.

Honestly I've long thought Chrome ends up in Japan but I can't say why. Just a feeling.

[Mel Mae]

Curlin started at $75,000 in 2009 then was at $25,000 after his first crop of 2-year-olds (who obviously didn't do too hot). He stayed there until 2015 when he went up to $35,000 (and is now at $100k at a different farm).

[Somnambulist]

Thanks.

[Admin]

I personally can't get a feel yet on where this stallion's fee gets set when all is said and done. Lot's of variables I'm not privy to that will go into the equation.

-I don't think they likely had to pay a lot to acquire the horse to begin with, so there's not a big number out there to recoup through stallion fees. Acquisition recovery is almost always the primary objective in setting a first year fee, imo.

-How much does the windfall in racing purse winnings off set the profit? Often (like American Pharoah) the breeder wasn't in the waterfall of racing profits like we have here. So does Taylor Made focus on making this horse a long term stallion play and price him affordably or try to maximize profits immediately in years 1-2 by throwing out a big fee target and negotiate off of any interest at that level?

-How many mares are lined up through Taylor Made's client's and now China Horse Club to go to him initially? The more committed, the more likely they push the fee higher. My instincts tell me that they have some, but not an overwhelming number, even though TM is primarily a broodmare farm. Since UBS passed, they haven't had a high priced stallion in their shed they needed to support. Are those mares still there and those owners committed to this stallion at whatever fee?

-Although he's coming with a pretty damn impressive racing record, his bloodlines are still what they are. Pulpit sire line is quality, but the dam side will always be a problem in recruiting mares, imo. If his dam was quality, why was she in California breeding to Lucky Pulpit?

So in making an educated guess, i'll cast a wide net and say he could be anywhere between $100,000 and $200,000 ('wow, thanks HB') and say $125,000 as a target over/under ('you're welcome').

Interested to hear other's thoughts.

Side note....I'll add Medaglia D'oro to the list of current stallions in line for a bump above the $150,000. To at least $175,000, maybe $200,000. He'll still get a full book of quality mares at that number.

And add Street Sense to the list of those getting lowered.

Wow, HB. I can't imagine CC filling a book at dime more than $50k. Even at that price, I wouldn't be one looking to breed to him. Excellent racehorse, but that pedigree is going to make a lot of Breeders want him to prove himself now as a stallion before they'll breed to him.

[Insane Crazy]

Interesting analysis, thanks for sharing your thoughts guys! I was slightly surprised to see your first post end in 100k+, HB, and was even myself thinking $35k or so. But something $50k - $75k makes sense if he scores the Classic and the Pegasus. For reference, here is who stood in that range this year: More Than Ready ($50k), Candy Ride ($60k), Ghostzapper ($60k), Tiznow ($60k), Super Saver ($65k), Awesome Again ($75k), Uncle Mo ($75k)

Starting at the same as Curlin would seem about right, though Smart Strike was a much hotter sire to have on your sheet than Lucky Pulpit could ever hope to be.

[Somnambulist]

I agree with V. I think $50k USB the most they could reasonably start him at. Truly I think he'd be better off in the 40's.

[Mel Mae]

Starting at the same as Curlin would seem about right, though Smart Strike was a much hotter sire to have on your sheet than Lucky Pulpit could ever hope to be.

Right about now someone is really hoping Lucky Pulpit has another freak appear in the next four months.

[Insane Crazy]

Starting at the same as Curlin would seem about right, though Smart Strike was a much hotter sire to have on your sheet than Lucky Pulpit could ever hope to be.

Right about now someone is really hoping Lucky Pulpit has another freak appear in the next four months.

Looool.

Again, because I like having references to go back to and compare when discussing future stallion fees, standing in the 30k-50k range in 2016: Tale of the Cat ($30k), Flatter ($30k), Quality Road ($35k), City Zip ($40k), Lemon Drop Kid ($40k), Elusive Quality ($40k), Street Sense ($45k), Hard Spun ($45k), Into Mischief ($45k). Would anyone consider him a decent risk at value against this crowd?

[Mel Mae]

Starting at the same as Curlin would seem about right, though Smart Strike was a much hotter sire to have on your sheet than Lucky Pulpit could ever hope to be.

Right about now someone is really hoping Lucky Pulpit has another freak appear in the next four months.

Looool.

Again, because I like having references to go back to and compare when discussing future stallion fees, standing in the 30k-50k range in 2016: Tale of the Cat ($30k), Flatter ($30k), Quality Road ($35k), City Zip ($40k), Lemon Drop Kid ($40k), Elusive Quality ($40k), Street Sense ($45k), Hard Spun ($45k), Into Mischief ($45k)

It's always interesting to see what range a farm puts a freshman in because of who they'll be competing against from the established ranks.

[Treve]

Interesting analysis, thanks for sharing your thoughts guys! I was slightly surprised to see your first post end in 100k+, HB, and was even myself thinking $35k or so. But something $50k - $75k makes sense if he scores the Classic and the Pegasus. For reference, here is who stood in that range this year: More Than Ready ($50k), Candy Ride ($60k), Ghostzapper ($60k), Tiznow ($60k), Super Saver ($65k), Awesome Again ($75k), Uncle Mo ($75k)

Starting at the same as Curlin would seem about right, though Smart Strike was a much hotter sire to have on your sheet than Lucky Pulpit could ever hope to be.

We think alike haha I was shocked at six figures as well and was thinking while his "fair" price would be in the 30-40k range, they'd probably attempt 50-60k hot off the presses if he wins the BCC and Pegasus. The "smart" price would be 15-35k.

[Treve]

Starting at the same as Curlin would seem about right, though Smart Strike was a much hotter sire to have on your sheet than Lucky Pulpit could ever hope to be.

Right about now someone is really hoping Lucky Pulpit has another freak appear in the next four months.

Looool.

Again, because I like having references to go back to and compare when discussing future stallion fees, standing in the 30k-50k range in 2016: Tale of the Cat ($30k), Flatter ($30k), Quality Road ($35k), City Zip ($40k), Lemon Drop Kid ($40k), Elusive Quality ($40k), Street Sense ($45k), Hard Spun ($45k), Into Mischief ($45k). Would anyone consider him a decent risk at value against this crowd?

You also have Tonalist at 30k, if you want a grandson of Pulpit... through Tapit. Tapizar an other Tapit stands 15k by comparison. After seeing those other stallions 2016 fees (though I think some of those will go up) I feel like they should start him lower than what is tempting to price him. His sire stood 7500$ this season ffs... His next highest earner, Rousing Sermon has 800k+ in earnings but 36 starts (most of his six figure earners have over 20 starts, several have 60+).

[Mel Mae]

Interesting analysis, thanks for sharing your thoughts guys! I was slightly surprised to see your first post end in 100k+, HB, and was even myself thinking $35k or so. But something $50k - $75k makes sense if he scores the Classic and the Pegasus. For reference, here is who stood in that range this year: More Than Ready ($50k), Candy Ride ($60k), Ghostzapper ($60k), Tiznow ($60k), Super Saver ($65k), Awesome Again ($75k), Uncle Mo ($75k)

Starting at the same as Curlin would seem about right, though Smart Strike was a much hotter sire to have on your sheet than Lucky Pulpit could ever hope to be.

We think alike haha I was shocked at six figures as well and was thinking while his "fair" price would be in the 30-40k range, they'd probably attempt 50-60k hot off the presses if he wins the BCC and Pegasus. The "smart" price would be 15-35k.

I agree with the upper range of your smart price but with the Preakness winner at $30k (and the 2014 Belmont winner at the same price), I see them using it as an excuse to go higher. Curlin starting at $75k off a similarish record may provide a bigger clue to the fee as long as they don't decide to try the "go big or go home" approach and go crazy with the fee if he wins the Classic/Pegasus.