FT Florida Sale

[Treve]

Seems like the trend continues. Lots of competition and money for what is perceived as quality at the very top of the market. Not so much for the rest. I'm thinking if there's physical flaws, there's little interest. But we've all seen how that can turn out.

Hip 154 C BODEMEISTER - EXCEPTIONALLY by El Prado (IRE) sold for $250k, and he turned in a great breeze. He was a $235k purchase as a yearling.

The other 10 second flat Bodemeister out of Blossomed went for $650k to Mark Casse - the Excptionally turned out a great breeze but I wonder if him jumping a shadow made him look less finished, less smooth.

As a roundup here are all the ones who breezed their 8th in 10 flat:
-Hip #5 Uncle Mo x Five Star Dream : 1 million $ to Stonestreet & Magnier
-Hip #13 Hard Spun x Grandma Martha: 300 000$ to Yoshida
-Hip #26 Malibu Moon x Jacey's Reward: RNA'D at $245K
-Hip #46 Uncle Mo x Miss Alondra: 200 000$ to L & N Racing
-Hip #77 Miss Hailey - Mission Impazible x Rodeo'sbeenspotted: 290 000$ to Justin Casse
-Hip #112 Speightstown x Well Monied: OUT
-Hip #114 Speightstown x Wild Hoots: 250 000$ to Gary Hartunian
-Hip #121 Uncle Mo x Aguilera: 350 000$ to Yoshida
-Hip #133 Bodemeister x Blossomed: 650 000$ to Mark Casse
-Hip #154 Bodemeister x Exceptionally: 250 000$ to Edward Junior Plesa

4 colts for 1 mill or more.

About the Uncle Mo:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... -t-florida

Out of the Two Punch mare Five Star Dream, the colt was purchased by Stonestreet Stables and M.V. Magnier from the consignment of Cary Frommer, agent, who purchased him last year for $90,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic fall yearling sale. He was considered one of the better workers during the under tack show Feb. 29.

The colt is one of 10 that breezed an eighth of a mile in :10.

"He looks like a special horse," Stonestreet bloodstock adviser John Moynihan said. "He's amazingly fast and covers so much ground when he runs."

Pinhook of the year award

About the Curlin:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... t-f-t-sale

Consigned by Ciaran Dunne's Wavertree Stables, agent, the colt is out of the A.P. Indy mare On a Roll, a sister to multiple stakes winner Ender's Sister. He was purchased by Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa Al Maktoum and will be trained by Bob Baffert.

"I thought he was a great moving horse. Nice head. By Curlin. We're very happy to have him," said racing manager Tim Stakemire, who signed the ticket. "He went through the vet well. Bob Baffert and Donato Lanni found him. Bob will train him."

The colt worked an eighth of a mile in :10 2/5 during the Feb. 29 under tack show. He was purchased for $430,000 by Altimira at last year's Keeneland September yearling sale.

Looking at his photo he's inherited Curlin's knees... Imagine how much he could have brought if he wasn't over at the knees.

About the Pioneerof the Nile:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... -1m-at-f-t

The colt, out of the Mr. Greeley mare Faith in Me, was purchased by M.V. Magnier. He was consigned by Harley/DeRenzo Thoroughbreds, agent. Hartley/DeRenzo purchased the colt for $230,000 at last year's Keeneland September yearling sale.

“He was as a nice a colt as there is in the sale," said Jamie McCalmont, who signed the ticket on Magnier's behalf. "He looked pretty good out there, didn’t he? American Pharoah has got such an amazing book of mares and if this one is half as good as him, we’ll be alright. He will definitely stay in America. “

The colt worked in :10 1/5 at the Feb. 29 under tack show.

I'd say that's an other pinhook success. And sounds like they're thinking stallion with this one too.

About the Tapit:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... 18-million

The colt, out of the Giant's Causeway mare Bethan, was a $1.2 million RNA at last year's Keeneland September yearling sale. He was purchased by the partnership of Woodford, Lane's End, and Robert LaPenta.

David Ingordo, who signed the ticket, said: "He's the man. He was a good horse. That's what they cost. And the people who bought him are thinking long-term as a stallion."

The Tapit colt worked an eighth of a mile in :10 1/5 at the Feb. 29 under tack show at Gulfstream.

Hope that their investment pays off, he's a handsome colt.

[Diver52]

Am I just naive, or is the idea of buying a stallion prospect at a two year old breeze show seem crazy?

[Sparrow Castle]

Thanks for putting that together, Treve. We looked at the sires who might be hot commodities, as well as the individuals in the sale. Below are my notes on the sires, done quickly so there might be some errors. I only included the sires we were interested in for various reasons along with the new sires here. The * is for the new sires represented by 2-year-olds at the Fasig-Tipton Florida sale.

*Algorithims colts $240,000 Not Sold and sold for $180,000.
*Bodemeister hammer prices $125k, $190k (not sold), $420k, $650k, $225k, $250k.
Pin Oak's Broken Vow did well, both Hips 88 and 142 sold for $450k.
*Gemologist two not sold for $95k and $97k.
*Hansen one went for $225k.
Of the nine Malibu Moon’s entered, the four with hammer prices weren’t sold, bids ranged from $185k to $485k.
*Mission Impazible filly went for $290k.
Two of the four Pioneerof the Nile’s entered went for $1 million and $100k.
Two Scat Daddy colts sold for $400k and $500k.
*Shackleford colts sold for $130k and $50k.
*Stay Thirsty colt sold for $300k.
The only Tapit that sold was the sale topper at $1.8 million; two were not sold for $145K and $520k.
*Tapizar colt not sold for $275k; filly sold for $800k.
*The Factor four of six were Outs; two were not sold for $490k and $295k.
Uncle Mo foals sold for $1 million, $200k, $300k, and $350k; one wasn’t sold for $70k.
*Union Rags foals sold for $95k, $200k, $75k, $400k, and $975k.
The one War Front in the sale was Not Sold for $500k.

Diver52, Looking ahead to after the short career on the track is always important, at least to me. There's value to be had there too.

[Slewfan2]

Thanks for putting that together, Treve. We looked at the sires who might be hot commodities, as well as the individuals in the sale. Below are my notes on the sires, done quickly so there might be some errors. I only included the sires we were interested in for various reasons along with the new sires here. The * is for the new sires represented by 2-year-olds at the Fasig-Tipton Florida sale.

*Algorithims colts $240,000 Not Sold and sold for $180,000.
*Bodemeister hammer prices $125k, $190k (not sold), $420k, $650k, $225k, $250k.
Pin Oak's Broken Vow did well, both Hips 88 and 142 sold for $450k.
*Gemologist two not sold for $95k and $97k.
*Hansen one went for $225k.
Of the nine Malibu Moon’s entered, the four with hammer prices weren’t sold, bids ranged from $185k to $485k.
*Mission Impazible filly went for $290k.
Two of the four Pioneerof the Nile’s entered went for $1 million and $100k.
Two Scat Daddy colts sold for $400k and $500k.
*Shackleford colts sold for $130k and $50k.
*Stay Thirsty colt sold for $300k.
The only Tapit that sold was the sale topper at $1.8 million; two were not sold for $145K and $520k.
*Tapizar colt not sold for $275k; filly sold for $800k.
*The Factor four of six were Outs; two were not sold for $490k and $295k.
Uncle Mo foals sold for $1 million, $200k, $300k, and $350k; one wasn’t sold for $70k.
*Union Rags foals sold for $95k, $200k, $75k, $400k, and $975k.
The one War Front in the sale was Not Sold for $500k.

Diver52, Looking ahead to after the short career on the track is always important, at least to me. There's value to be had there too.

Thanks!Very happy to see that the Algorithms and the Stay Thirsty sold well

[Flanders]

Am I just naive, or is the idea of buying a stallion prospect at a two year old breeze show seem crazy?

They aren't going in saying, ok this one is going to be one of our stallions. They are hoping that he accomplishes enough to become one of their stallions.

I think that is always the very top of the market for colts, regardless of if its weanlings, yearlings or 2yos. They are paying for pedigree, conformation, racing potential and future stallion potential.

Fillies are future broodmares even if they don't pan out as racers, being a good racer is just icing on the cake.

[Horsebagger]

First 2yo sale on the horizon, and my initial review of the Hips was triggered by an article in today's TDN.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/pd ... 160224.pdf

I'm finding the idea of a million $ filly pinhook by Curlin o/o a Poteen mare a bit ambitious.

Good luck with that, Vern.

Anybody get a reaction from Vern? Wasn't a good day.

In racing parlance, they got 'left at the gate'. Still time to recover, but now it's probably more about salvaging as much of the initial investment as possible, instead of counting profits. Tough to do, but good luck. Live and learn.

[halo]

Am I just naive, or is the idea of buying a stallion prospect at a two year old breeze show seem crazy?

Where else would you buy one?

[Diver52]

Am I just naive, or is the idea of buying a stallion prospect at a two year old breeze show seem crazy?

Where else would you buy one?

Well, at the race track, after the horse had actually accomplished something. At this point with the pedigrees they have, they're ALL potential stallions! (Um, except for the fillies.) I can see buying a filly and saying "Well, even if she can't run, she has broodmare potential with her pedigree" but it still seems silly to talk about stallion potential for a colt who hasn't raced and won't be a viable stud if he doesn't perform well.

[Horsebagger]

Well, at the race track, after the horse had actually accomplished something. At this point with the pedigrees they have, they're ALL potential stallions! (Um, except for the fillies.) I can see buying a filly and saying "Well, even if she can't run, she has broodmare potential with her pedigree" but it still seems silly to talk about stallion potential for a colt who hasn't raced and won't be a viable stud if he doesn't perform well.

And what's the price tag for let's say Mohaymen if you wanted to buy him now AFTER he's proven on the racetrack he has stallion potential? Or we can ask Quiet Chris what the price tag is for Unified, who is a lot less proven on the racetrack so far, and not even with a clear cut potential stallion's pedigree.

[halo]

[/quote]

Where else would you buy one?[/quote]

Well, at the race track, after the horse had actually accomplished something. At this point with the pedigrees they have, they're ALL potential stallions! (Um, except for the fillies.) I can see buying a filly and saying "Well, even if she can't run, she has broodmare potential with her pedigree" but it still seems silly to talk about stallion potential for a colt who hasn't raced and won't be a viable stud if he doesn't perform well.[/quote]

Actually, they all are not potential stallions. There have been a lot of really really good race horses that didnt get any love from stallion managers. Ron The Greek and I'll Have Another come to mind. Even as good as California Chrome is, there was a lot of shopping going on before he found a home at Taylor Made. Race record aside, his pedigree and conformation are as important, and he is lacking there.

Its not all in black and white.

[BaroqueAgain1]

"Its not all in black and white."

Unless you're Risque Remarque.

[bare it all]

Or you can buy them unraced at the breeding stock sale for $20k and stand them in Cali for $3500.

http://www.drf.com/news/curlin-mischief ... ornia-2016

[Diver52]

Where else would you buy one?[/quote]

Well, at the race track, after the horse had actually accomplished something. At this point with the pedigrees they have, they're ALL potential stallions! (Um, except for the fillies.) I can see buying a filly and saying "Well, even if she can't run, she has broodmare potential with her pedigree" but it still seems silly to talk about stallion potential for a colt who hasn't raced and won't be a viable stud if he doesn't perform well.[/quote]

Actually, they all are not potential stallions. There have been a lot of really really good race horses that didnt get any love from stallion managers. Ron The Greek and I'll Have Another come to mind. Even as good as California Chrome is, there was a lot of shopping going on before he found a home at Taylor Made. Race record aside, his pedigree and conformation are as important, and he is lacking there.

Its not all in black and white.[/quote]

I don't know why I'm coming back to this as I don't understand why a simple, quasi-facetious comment sent me to the corner for lectures, but I do understand that not all successful racehorses are desirable stallion prospects; CC, by an undistinguished sire with little female family is, of course, a perfect example. But there are very few obscure sires and crappy female lines in that sale, so you could buy almost all of the colts and call them "stallion prospects" if you're talking only about pedigree. That's why it seemed silly. But I'm done.

[Sparrow Castle]

Oh data, how we love ya'. Some interesting nuggets in this story. Can't wait to see the published studies.

RESEARCH PUTS NUMBERS BEHIND TWO-YEAR-OLD SALES TRENDS
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/blood ... es-trends/

Stowe's team compiled data from 1,806 horses sold at nine 2-year-old auctions in 2013, sorting them based on breeze time, dam produce records, stud fee, Average Earnings Index (AEI), Comparable Index (CI), and other factors.

As expected, faster breeze times also made a difference in final price (the most significant of any other variable, actually), but even Stowe was surprised at how much. For each fifth of a second a horse ran faster, the horse sold for about $8,000 more at a non-select sale, and a whopping $24,000 higher at a select sale — meaning a single second can cost somewhere between $40,000 and $120,000 when the hammer drops.

Stowe wondered next what impact those all-important breeze times had on career success and longevity. The research team took a look at horses sold at the OBS 2-year-old in training sales in 2005 and 2006. They found that horses breezing two and three furlongs had more lifetime starts than those breezing one furlong. Horses breezing two furlongs had more total earnings, and earnings per start, as well as greater earnings in their two, three, and 4-year-old seasons than those going one furlong. Horses breezing three furlongs had higher total and 2-year-old earnings, but their advantage seemed to disappear later into their careers.

Another factor that surprised her somewhat was the value of having a freshman sire's name. A horse by a freshman sire was worth $28,616 more than those who were not. Freshman sires of 2013 represented at these sales had stud fees ranging from $4,000 to $15,000, and while it wasn't a bad class by any means, there weren't any huge names, save for Pioneerof The Nile.
“I'd heard buyers were willing to pay a premium for progeny of freshman sires, even though this was the first time I had seen it occur in the data. The story I was told was that perhaps buyers want to say, ‘I knew that So and So was going to hit it big,'” said Stowe, who acknowledges this probably changed during the economic downturn.

Need more info about this one.

When controlling for other factors, Stowe also found that sellers got an average of $.89 back for every $1 spent on stud fee for all stallions.

[Admin]

I don't know why I'm coming back to this as I don't understand why a simple, quasi-facetious comment sent me to the corner for lectures, but I do understand that not all successful racehorses are desirable stallion prospects; CC, by an undistinguished sire with little female family is, of course, a perfect example. But there are very few obscure sires and crappy female lines in that sale, so you could buy almost all of the colts and call them "stallion prospects" if you're talking only about pedigree. That's why it seemed silly. But I'm done.

I don't either. It WAS a rather ludicrous thing to say, to even speculate at all that this horse would be a future stallion. As you noted, this isn't a future broodmare who can get by on pedigree alone. The chances are very much against this colt -- just as they are with every colt -- that HE will be one of the special ones to race well enough to earn a place at a central Ky stud farm.

[Horsebagger]

First 2yo sale on the horizon, and my initial review of the Hips was triggered by an article in today's TDN.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/pd ... 160224.pdf

I'm finding the idea of a million $ filly pinhook by Curlin o/o a Poteen mare a bit ambitious.

Good luck with that, Vern.

This whole Brocklebank/Dickman Legacy Ranch 2016 Pinhook venture looking more and more like a disaster.

13 entered for the Barrets sale: 7 withdrawn; 5 RNA; 1 Cal Bred by Idiot Proof sold for $150,000 to Baffert.

Saw some comments that the RNA's are going to be put into training and raced. Not the ideal exit strategy for a pinhook venture. Welcome to the Game, Vern.

[Horsebagger]

First 2yo sale on the horizon, and my initial review of the Hips was triggered by an article in today's TDN.

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/pd ... 160224.pdf

I'm finding the idea of a million $ filly pinhook by Curlin o/o a Poteen mare a bit ambitious.

Good luck with that, Vern.

This whole Brocklebank/Dickman Legacy Ranch 2016 Pinhook venture looking more and more like a disaster, not that it wasn't predictable.

13 entered for the Barrets sale: 7 withdrawn; 5 RNA; 1 Cal Bred by Idiot Proof sold for $150,000 to Baffert.

Saw some comments that the RNA's are going to be put into training and raced. Not the ideal exit strategy for a pinhook venture. Welcome to the Game, Vern.

[Sparrow Castle]

This whole Brocklebank/Dickman Legacy Ranch 2016 Pinhook venture looking more and more like a disaster.

13 entered for the Barrets sale: 7 withdrawn; 5 RNA; 1 Cal Bred by Idiot Proof sold for $150,000 to Baffert.

Saw some comments that the RNA's are going to be put into training and raced. Not the ideal exit strategy for a pinhook venture. Welcome to the Game, Vern.

It sure is a head-scratcher. That buyback for $725,000 on the Union Rags colt blew my mind. It will be interesting to see how this goes for them. Joe Nevills did the math combining the Florida and Barretts sales.

Puzzling strategy for Brocklebank, Dickman Legacy Ranch at sales
http://live.drf.com/nuggets/27280?refer ... eding-live

I'm not going to pretend that I am an all-knowing source of Thoroughbred economics, far from it. Perhaps there is a perfectly valid reason they turned away enough money to put them well in the black for the Barretts sale on paper, and potentially the Florida sale too, depending on how one wants to skew the numbers. I just need that reason explained to me.

Now, let's combine the two sales to see just how wide the discrepancies are between initial investment, actual money recouped, and the best-case scenario. In the cases where horses were entered in multiple sales, I am counting the auction in which they drew the highest final bid, as they would only be able to be sold once. Also, there is another private purchase to factor in, which I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt at $50,000.

Combined sale-price investment of cataloged horses, counting non-breezed outs: 14 horses at $2,254,000
Combined sale-price investment on the grounds: 11 horses at $2,014,000
Investment through the ring: 8 horses at $914,000
Combined final bids: $2,120,000
Money recouped publicly: 2 horses at $380,000
Money left on the table: 6 horses at $1,740,000

The numbers say more here than I possibly could.

Brocklebank and Dickman Legacy Ranch have six cataloged in the OBS April sale, including three that were included in previous sales. They'll surely be back for the Barretts May sale, as well. It will be interesting to see if the duo stick to their plan, or price the horses to move.

[Horsebagger]

This whole Brocklebank/Dickman Legacy Ranch 2016 Pinhook venture looking more and more like a disaster.

13 entered for the Barrets sale: 7 withdrawn; 5 RNA; 1 Cal Bred by Idiot Proof sold for $150,000 to Baffert.

Saw some comments that the RNA's are going to be put into training and raced. Not the ideal exit strategy for a pinhook venture. Welcome to the Game, Vern.

It sure is a head-scratcher. That buyback for $725,000 on the Union Rags colt blew my mind. It will be interesting to see how this goes for them. Joe Nevills did the math combining the Florida and Barretts sales.

Puzzling strategy for Brocklebank, Dickman Legacy Ranch at sales
http://live.drf.com/nuggets/27280?refer ... eding-live

I'm not going to pretend that I am an all-knowing source of Thoroughbred economics, far from it. Perhaps there is a perfectly valid reason they turned away enough money to put them well in the black for the Barretts sale on paper, and potentially the Florida sale too, depending on how one wants to skew the numbers. I just need that reason explained to me.

Now, let's combine the two sales to see just how wide the discrepancies are between initial investment, actual money recouped, and the best-case scenario. In the cases where horses were entered in multiple sales, I am counting the auction in which they drew the highest final bid, as they would only be able to be sold once. Also, there is another private purchase to factor in, which I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt at $50,000.

Combined sale-price investment of cataloged horses, counting non-breezed outs: 14 horses at $2,254,000
Combined sale-price investment on the grounds: 11 horses at $2,014,000
Investment through the ring: 8 horses at $914,000
Combined final bids: $2,120,000
Money recouped publicly: 2 horses at $380,000
Money left on the table: 6 horses at $1,740,000

The numbers say more here than I possibly could.

Brocklebank and Dickman Legacy Ranch have six cataloged in the OBS April sale, including three that were included in previous sales. They'll surely be back for the Barretts May sale, as well. It will be interesting to see if the duo stick to their plan, or price the horses to move.

I'll help. I'll bet anything those RNA's aren't live bids. They are run-up numbers to some "value" level that the consignor convinced the owner they're worth. The money left on the table wasn't real money. Disaster top to bottom.

[Sparrow Castle]

This whole Brocklebank/Dickman Legacy Ranch 2016 Pinhook venture looking more and more like a disaster.

13 entered for the Barrets sale: 7 withdrawn; 5 RNA; 1 Cal Bred by Idiot Proof sold for $150,000 to Baffert.

Saw some comments that the RNA's are going to be put into training and raced. Not the ideal exit strategy for a pinhook venture. Welcome to the Game, Vern.

It sure is a head-scratcher. That buyback for $725,000 on the Union Rags colt blew my mind. It will be interesting to see how this goes for them. Joe Nevills did the math combining the Florida and Barretts sales.

Puzzling strategy for Brocklebank, Dickman Legacy Ranch at sales
http://live.drf.com/nuggets/27280?refer ... eding-live

I'm not going to pretend that I am an all-knowing source of Thoroughbred economics, far from it. Perhaps there is a perfectly valid reason they turned away enough money to put them well in the black for the Barretts sale on paper, and potentially the Florida sale too, depending on how one wants to skew the numbers. I just need that reason explained to me.

Now, let's combine the two sales to see just how wide the discrepancies are between initial investment, actual money recouped, and the best-case scenario. In the cases where horses were entered in multiple sales, I am counting the auction in which they drew the highest final bid, as they would only be able to be sold once. Also, there is another private purchase to factor in, which I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt at $50,000.

Combined sale-price investment of cataloged horses, counting non-breezed outs: 14 horses at $2,254,000
Combined sale-price investment on the grounds: 11 horses at $2,014,000
Investment through the ring: 8 horses at $914,000
Combined final bids: $2,120,000
Money recouped publicly: 2 horses at $380,000
Money left on the table: 6 horses at $1,740,000

The numbers say more here than I possibly could.

Brocklebank and Dickman Legacy Ranch have six cataloged in the OBS April sale, including three that were included in previous sales. They'll surely be back for the Barretts May sale, as well. It will be interesting to see if the duo stick to their plan, or price the horses to move.

I'll help. I'll bet anything those RNA's aren't live bids. They are run-up numbers to some "value" level that the consignor convinced the owner they're worth. The money left on the table wasn't real money. Disaster top to bottom.

I know that happens, but not at the time it's happening. Obviously they paid too much for the yearlings, or at least some of them. Tough way for Dickman to get into the pinhook side of the sport. Maybe one will turn out to be the next Unbridled's Song.

I still haven't pulled the trigger at any of the sales I've attended. It seems to me it's no less risky than just claiming a horse. I'd sure like to do it someday though. I guess I'll need to trust a bloodstock agent first. Things like this don't help.