Odds set on 'Pharoah' stud fee

[lurkey mclurker]

First crop had champions Landaluce and Slew O Gold

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... -greatness

That was a great article. Thanks for linking it!

[Horsebagger]

You'd be surprised how many are going to be willing to spend a good chunk to breed to the 1st TC winner in 37 years. Also, 200,000 doesn't even put a slight mark on half these breeders wallets.

I don't want to think about his stud career right now.

Nonsense. Besides the fact $200k is $200k to everybody, there is also the opportunity cost of sending a top producing mare (who would deserve that level of a stallion fee) to an unproven stallion. "Risking" a year of limited production life of a valuable mare is not often going to be a lucrative path in the overall breeding operation.

[carole]

You'd be surprised how many are going to be willing to spend a good chunk to breed to the 1st TC winner in 37 years. Also, 200,000 doesn't even put a slight mark on half these breeders wallets.

I don't want to think about his stud career right now.

Nonsense. Besides the fact $200k is $200k to everybody, there is also the opportunity cost of sending a top producing mare (who would deserve that level of a stallion fee) to an unproven stallion. "Risking" a year of limited production life of a valuable mare is not often going to be a lucrative path in the overall breeding operation.

What you're saying makes sense but looking at a recent popular horse who went to stud with a high fee (Frankel), we see that his first few books have filled up incredibly well with very high quality mares despite the fact his sire Galileo is much more proven! The same also happened with Sea The Stars but they are both European so perhaps it's different in the US.

[BaroqueAgain1]

IMHO, the fact that both those stallions had dams who had produced at the highest quality (STS out of Urban Sea, Frankel out of Kind) may have added to their early popularity.

[Somnambulist]

You'd be surprised how many are going to be willing to spend a good chunk to breed to the 1st TC winner in 37 years. Also, 200,000 doesn't even put a slight mark on half these breeders wallets.

I don't want to think about his stud career right now.

Nonsense. Besides the fact $200k is $200k to everybody, there is also the opportunity cost of sending a top producing mare (who would deserve that level of a stallion fee) to an unproven stallion. "Risking" a year of limited production life of a valuable mare is not often going to be a lucrative path in the overall breeding operation.

200k is definitely not 200k to everyone. We both know that.

I just thought recent years got rid of this trend. I'm not 11 anymore and Point given starting for 150k. I'm so confident he doesn't start for 6 figures I would bet.

[Horsebagger]

IMHO, the fact that both those stallions had dams who had produced at the highest quality (STS out of Urban Sea, Frankel out of Kind) may have added to their early popularity.

100% Correct.

[Horsebagger]

You'd be surprised how many are going to be willing to spend a good chunk to breed to the 1st TC winner in 37 years. Also, 200,000 doesn't even put a slight mark on half these breeders wallets.

I don't want to think about his stud career right now.

Nonsense. Besides the fact $200k is $200k to everybody, there is also the opportunity cost of sending a top producing mare (who would deserve that level of a stallion fee) to an unproven stallion. "Risking" a year of limited production life of a valuable mare is not often going to be a lucrative path in the overall breeding operation.

200k is definitely not 200k to everyone. We both know that.

I just thought recent years got rid of this trend. I'm not 11 anymore and Point given starting for 150k. I'm so confident he doesn't start for 6 figures I would bet.

Just because someone can write a check for $200,000 without blinking an eye doesn't mean they get stupid. Is there stupid money out there? Of course. But stupid money alone isn't going to fill the book of a new stallion.

As for the second point you made, I'm leaning towards expecting an announced fee of $150-$175,000, and highly doubting he gets a full book of full mares (especially a Coolmore sized book) without giving discounts off that number. The higher they set the bar, the more mare owners are going to look to POTN instead, imo. No doubt Winstar is hoping the number starts with a 2.

[Somnambulist]

Just because someone can write a check for $200,000 without blinking an eye doesn't mean they get stupid. Is there stupid money out there? Of course. But stupid money alone isn't going to fill the book of a new stallion.

As for the second point you made, I'm leaning towards expecting an announced fee of $150-$175,000, and highly doubting he gets a full book of full mares (especially a Coolmore sized book) without giving discounts off that number. The higher they set the bar, the more mare owners are going to look to POTN instead, imo. No doubt Winstar is hoping the number starts with a 2.

A. Well no, but I never said that. If I didn't take issue with SOMETHING you said, it wouldn't be TBC... come on now.

B. In the US when was the last time a horse started at 6 figures? I can't remember. AP's female side is not attractive. A race record is really worth that high? I'm not saying he can't start at that - clearly he can - I'm just wondering on what basis this is even justified. In my novice breeding world mind it seems silly.

[carole]

IMHO, the fact that both those stallions had dams who had produced at the highest quality (STS out of Urban Sea, Frankel out of Kind) may have added to their early popularity.

Except at the time of Frankel's retirement, he was Kind's only Group 1 performer. But I agree on Urban Sea. Still, you could choose to go to STS's brother Galileo who was proven already at the time.

[Admin]

IMHO, the fact that both those stallions had dams who had produced at the highest quality (STS out of Urban Sea, Frankel out of Kind) may have added to their early popularity.

Except at the time of Frankel's retirement, he was Kind's only Group 1 performer. But I agree on Urban Sea. Still, you could choose to go to STS's brother Galileo who was proven already at the time.

Both of those horses were "the best of all time!" when they retired. That won't be said for AP.

[Horsebagger]

IMHO, the fact that both those stallions had dams who had produced at the highest quality (STS out of Urban Sea, Frankel out of Kind) may have added to their early popularity.

Except at the time of Frankel's retirement, he was Kind's only Group 1 performer. But I agree on Urban Sea. Still, you could choose to go to STS's brother Galileo who was proven already at the time.

Kind was also a half sister to a champion.

[luvthesales]

Just because someone can write a check for $200,000 without blinking an eye doesn't mean they get stupid. Is there stupid money out there? Of course. But stupid money alone isn't going to fill the book of a new stallion.

As for the second point you made, I'm leaning towards expecting an announced fee of $150-$175,000, and highly doubting he gets a full book of full mares (especially a Coolmore sized book) without giving discounts off that number. The higher they set the bar, the more mare owners are going to look to POTN instead, imo. No doubt Winstar is hoping the number starts with a 2.

I agree. I think they will put him at $150,000 publicly and discount him privately. He is probably more fairly a $100,000 horse at best.

[luvthesales]

I just thought recent years got rid of this trend. I'm not 11 anymore and Point given starting for 150k. I'm so confident he doesn't start for 6 figures I would bet.

You are mostly correct. But there is a difference between market value and public announcement, if you get my drift.

[Somnambulist]

I just thought recent years got rid of this trend. I'm not 11 anymore and Point given starting for 150k. I'm so confident he doesn't start for 6 figures I would bet.

You are mostly correct. But there is a difference between market value and public announcement, if you get my drift.

I do. But what's the point of announcing it at the price then? Is there some benefit?

All of this just seems like BS to me - an announcement like that anyway. Is there something about this I'm not getting. I admit to being the expert in TB breeding amongst everyone I know. Which is scary. Very scary.

[Flanders]

I just thought recent years got rid of this trend. I'm not 11 anymore and Point given starting for 150k. I'm so confident he doesn't start for 6 figures I would bet.

You are mostly correct. But there is a difference between market value and public announcement, if you get my drift.

I do. But what's the point of announcing it at the price then? Is there some benefit?

All of this just seems like BS to me - an announcement like that anyway. Is there something about this I'm not getting. I admit to being the expert in TB breeding amongst everyone I know. Which is scary. Very scary.

Its all just speculation right now until we actually see what his stud fee will be. I would assume the horse is going to be syndicated. But regardless, they can then wheel and deal behind the actual stud fee. Maybe cut some deals for exceptional mares, maybe some foal sharing, or even trading for breedings to other stallions(I know Ramsay is big on this), etc. Its all what the market perceives his value at. Like War Front, his breedings were selling for 300k+ but his stud fee is 150k. If no one wants to breed to American Pharoah if his stud fee is announced at 150k, they could call and say, I'll send X mare if you let me in for 100k. It doesn't mean they will get in though.

[dustino140]

I'm so confident he doesn't start for 6 figures I would bet.

Terms?

[Somnambulist]

I'm so confident he doesn't start for 6 figures I would bet.

Terms?

Case of local term micro brew?

[dustino140]

I'm so confident he doesn't start for 6 figures I would bet.

Terms?

Case of local term micro brew?

I accept.

[middleground]

Phipps family-worthy mare + AP at 100K = yearlings that, for most breeders, would be sold at a profit.

Possible dark cloud is the fact that AP's pedigree isn't particularly engaging for Euros, i.e., doesn't have 65 crosses of Northern Dancer in first three generations.

[luvthesales]

I do. But what's the point of announcing it at the price then? Is there some benefit?

Suppose fee is announced at $150,000.

Breeder X calls and says, "I like him, but is there any wiggle room on the fee?" Coolmore offers $125,000 and they take it.

Breeder Y calls and says, "I like him a lot, but I can't go higher than $100,000. Is there any wiggle room?" Coolmore takes the mare at $100,000.

Breeder Z calls and submits a mare at $150,000.

Agent A calls and offers two client mares for $250,000 if they can get a 5% commission. Coolmore accepts.

In three of the four cases, Coolmore "discounted" the fee to a point where the client felt like they'd got a good deal. In four of the four cases, people paid what they thought the horse was worth, and were happy about it.

It's like buying a car. The same make/model can sell for 10 different prices to 10 different people. Sometimes fees are set in stone (some farms are stickier about it than others), but usually not. Additionally, I suspect Coolmore wanted the "supposed" high fee out there because it strokes egos in the organization. They like the press. Few people are fooled and will pay well in excess of fair market value, but in those rare cases, Coolmore isn't about to turn silly money down.

Flanders, I'm not sure how many of their horses they actually syndicate. I think they usually retain full interest (or own the horses in partnership). But it's been a while since I paid much attention to something like that.

Edited to add that if they priced the horse at some universally-accepted "fair market value," there would be little to no wheeling and dealing. The price would be the price. And there are some people for whom, if they don't get a "discount," they're mad. Even if the "fair fee" is the same price they'd get if they got a discounted "inflated fee." People always want to feel like they're getting a deal. It may not be rational, but it is often reality.