Odds set on 'Pharoah' stud fee

Starine · Fri Jun 12, 2015 11:13 pm

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... -next-race

Thoughts?

Flanders · Fri Jun 12, 2015 11:23 pm

I think he starts at least at $150,000. If he races through year end and doesn't lose at least $200,000.

Yes that is crazy high but if the rumors of $50 million, if he wins his remaining races, are true, they have to start out as high as they can. They have to try to get the purchase price back before his foals hit the track, just in case he is a bust.

CoronadosQuest · Fri Jun 12, 2015 11:54 pm

Ghostzapper debuted at $200,000 so I wouldn't at all be surprised if AP was that or more

Izvestia · Sat Jun 13, 2015 7:36 am

I cannot justify spending more on him than his sire. What is Pioneer's fee supposed to be? I seem to remember $150,000

Kelly Ann · Sat Jun 13, 2015 12:28 pm

This is where the breeding aspect of things goes topsy turvy for me.. I can not for the life of me understand why Pharoah merits a gigantic stud fee straight from the word go. Yes, he won the Triple Crown and is by all accounts a really special animal. That should reflect in both his sire's stud fee and any future foals his dam produces. THEY are the one's who, in my eyes, earned admittance into the upper echelons of the breeding game.

Pharoah may indeed end up being a great sire, but the odds are more in favor of him being an average one. Winning races doesn't translate into a breeding titan.

I just don't get it. If I owned a mare with enough quality to merit it, I'd send her to Pioneerof the Nile any day over his as yet unproven son.

Flanders · Sat Jun 13, 2015 5:52 pm

Kelly Ann wrote:This is where the breeding aspect of things goes topsy turvy for me.. I can not for the life of me understand why Pharoah merits a gigantic stud fee straight from the word go. Yes, he won the Triple Crown and is by all accounts a really special animal. That should reflect in both his sire's stud fee and any future foals his dam produces. THEY are the one's who, in my eyes, earned admittance into the upper echelons of the breeding game.

Pharoah may indeed end up being a great sire, but the odds are more in favor of him being an average one. Winning races doesn't translate into a breeding titan.

I just don't get it. If I owned a mare with enough quality to merit it, I'd send her to Pioneerof the Nile any day over his as yet unproven son.

His stud fee reflects the money paid for him by Coolmore. His purchase price reflects his racing ability and pedigree. Coolmore is a business, they have to try and recoup the substantial investment in this horse in the years before his foals hit the track. As I said above, there are rumors of $50 million purchase price being thrown around. The higher his stud fee is, the faster they get that initial investment back and can make profit. Even if he stood at $150,000, he would have to sire 350+ outside foals before they got that investment back, if Coolmore kept ownership. Of course I don't know if Coolmore bought him straight out or if they are syndicating him.

Kelly Ann · Sat Jun 13, 2015 8:14 pm

Flanders wrote: His stud fee reflects the money paid for him by Coolmore. His purchase price reflects his racing ability and pedigree. Coolmore is a business, they have to try and recoup the substantial investment in this horse in the years before his foals hit the track. As I said above, there are rumors of $50 million purchase price being thrown around. The higher his stud fee is, the faster they get that initial investment back and can make profit. Even if he stood at $150,000, he would have to sire 350+ outside foals before they got that investment back, if Coolmore kept ownership. Of course I don't know if Coolmore bought him straight out or if they are syndicating him.

No, I get why Coolmore is likely to set a massive stud fee, the part that continues to mystify (and not just for AP, he's just the latest) is that mare owners would flock to pay it.

BlindLucky · Sat Jun 13, 2015 9:32 pm

Kelly Ann wrote:
Flanders wrote: His stud fee reflects the money paid for him by Coolmore. His purchase price reflects his racing ability and pedigree. Coolmore is a business, they have to try and recoup the substantial investment in this horse in the years before his foals hit the track. As I said above, there are rumors of $50 million purchase price being thrown around. The higher his stud fee is, the faster they get that initial investment back and can make profit. Even if he stood at $150,000, he would have to sire 350+ outside foals before they got that investment back, if Coolmore kept ownership. Of course I don't know if Coolmore bought him straight out or if they are syndicating him.
No, I get why Coolmore is likely to set a massive stud fee, the part that continues to mystify (and not just for AP, he's just the latest) is that mare owners would flock to pay it.

Because the first few crops of top flight mares bred to the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years (whose young sire is off to a decent start, and grandsire hasn't done too badly himself) will make babies worth lots of dollar signs

Admin · Sun Jun 14, 2015 9:49 am

Lots of rumors about pricing but it's looking as though Zayat maybe led us astray. Oppenheimer and others in the industry seem sure that he was purchased for less than $14m plus kickers back last Winter (not between the Preakness and Belmont as Zayat stated). Even with a huge kicker such as $10m for winning the TC, it'd seem virtually impossible for Coolmoore to be on the hook for anything close to $50m. Those who are estimating around $30m would appear to be correct.

Regardless of what the farm pays, the stud fee is based on what breeders will pay. I don't think there's a chance he can command $175k or more. $75k-$100k seems more realistic. His pedigree is ok but not outstanding, and from what I can tell from his yearling and other photos, his looks are nice but not outstanding.

Life At Zen · Sun Jun 14, 2015 10:16 am

Admin wrote:Lots of rumors about pricing but it's looking as though Zayat maybe led us astray. Oppenheimer and others in the industry seem sure that he was purchased for less than $14m plus kickers back last Winter (not between the Preakness and Belmont as Zayat stated). Even with a huge kicker such as $10m for winning the TC, it'd seem virtually impossible for Coolmoore to be on the hook for anything close to $50m. Those who are estimating around $30m would appear to be correct.

Regardless of what the farm pays, the stud fee is based on what breeders will pay. I don't think there's a chance he can command $175k or more. $75k-$100k seems more realistic. His pedigree is ok but not outstanding, and from what I can tell from his yearling and other photos, his looks are nice but not outstanding.

I wonder if this was when the TC deal was finalized. I can see him being sold last year with some kickers but after the Preakness there may have been some renegotiations considering his chances were high at that time for actually winning the TC.

Admin · Sun Jun 14, 2015 12:04 pm

Life At Zen wrote:
Admin wrote:Lots of rumors about pricing but it's looking as though Zayat maybe led us astray. Oppenheimer and others in the industry seem sure that he was purchased for less than $14m plus kickers back last Winter (not between the Preakness and Belmont as Zayat stated). Even with a huge kicker such as $10m for winning the TC, it'd seem virtually impossible for Coolmoore to be on the hook for anything close to $50m. Those who are estimating around $30m would appear to be correct.

Regardless of what the farm pays, the stud fee is based on what breeders will pay. I don't think there's a chance he can command $175k or more. $75k-$100k seems more realistic. His pedigree is ok but not outstanding, and from what I can tell from his yearling and other photos, his looks are nice but not outstanding.

I wonder if this was when the TC deal was finalized. I can see him being sold last year with some kickers but after the Preakness there may have been some renegotiations considering his chances were high at that time for actually winning the TC.

I can't imagine that whoever stood to have the best deal would renegotiate the contract.

Insane Crazy · Sun Jun 14, 2015 12:57 pm

Admin wrote:
Life At Zen wrote:
Admin wrote:Lots of rumors about pricing but it's looking as though Zayat maybe led us astray. Oppenheimer and others in the industry seem sure that he was purchased for less than $14m plus kickers back last Winter (not between the Preakness and Belmont as Zayat stated). Even with a huge kicker such as $10m for winning the TC, it'd seem virtually impossible for Coolmoore to be on the hook for anything close to $50m. Those who are estimating around $30m would appear to be correct.

Regardless of what the farm pays, the stud fee is based on what breeders will pay. I don't think there's a chance he can command $175k or more. $75k-$100k seems more realistic. His pedigree is ok but not outstanding, and from what I can tell from his yearling and other photos, his looks are nice but not outstanding.

I wonder if this was when the TC deal was finalized. I can see him being sold last year with some kickers but after the Preakness there may have been some renegotiations considering his chances were high at that time for actually winning the TC.
I can't imagine that whoever stood to have the best deal would renegotiate the contract.

Other farms banging at the door, maybe? I know it's a contract and blah blah, but if someone showed up with big bags with dollar signs on them, I imagine some shuffling could occur. Not that I'm sure I think there was a renegotiation, but I guess I can see where one could happen.

$100k out of the gate was my first instinct on AP's fee. $150k maybe, though higher than that it seems kinda crazy.

Admin · Sun Jun 14, 2015 1:20 pm

Insane Crazy wrote: Other farms banging at the door, maybe? I know it's a contract and blah blah, but if someone showed up with big bags with dollar signs on them, I imagine some shuffling could occur. Not that I'm sure I think there was a renegotiation, but I guess I can see where one could happen.

$100k out of the gate was my first instinct on AP's fee. $150k maybe, though higher than that it seems kinda crazy.

A contract's a contract. Zayat would have zero chance of winning if he reneged on a contract, and no other farm would touch him knowing that contract was out there.

Northport · Sun Jun 14, 2015 2:58 pm

If he retired tomorrow: $100,000. If he finishes the year and is undefeated: $150,000

Horsebagger · Sun Jun 14, 2015 7:05 pm

Northport wrote:If he retired tomorrow: $100,000. If he finishes the year and is undefeated: $150,000

Wins in which races "while finishing the year undefeated" gets him a 50% bump in fee, in your mind?

Unless one of them is against older horses, I don't see why his value as a stallion increases over what it is today (whatever that number is)

I personally don't have a whole lot of faith he turns out to be a top tier stallion given his dam side pedigree is not impressive. That dam has thrown siblings to him that are pedestrian, at best.

CoronadosQuest · Sun Jun 14, 2015 7:24 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
Northport wrote:If he retired tomorrow: $100,000. If he finishes the year and is undefeated: $150,000
Wins in which races "while finishing the year undefeated" gets him a 50% bump in fee, in your mind?

Unless one of them is against older horses, I don't see why his value as a stallion increases over what it is today (whatever that number is)

I personally don't have a whole lot of faith he turns out to be a top tier stallion given his dam side pedigree is not impressive. That dam has thrown siblings to him that are pedestrian, at best.

She only has one that is racing outside of AP... and that is Xixixi, who is a 4yo. His sire, Maimonides, isn't exactly setting the world on fire with his offspring either. AP's other siblings are a yearling filly and a 2015 colt. Not exactly a good sample size. Seems she is 50/50 at producing TC winners

Horsebagger · Sun Jun 14, 2015 8:05 pm

CoronadosQuest wrote:
Horsebagger wrote:
Northport wrote:If he retired tomorrow: $100,000. If he finishes the year and is undefeated: $150,000
Wins in which races "while finishing the year undefeated" gets him a 50% bump in fee, in your mind?

Unless one of them is against older horses, I don't see why his value as a stallion increases over what it is today (whatever that number is)

I personally don't have a whole lot of faith he turns out to be a top tier stallion given his dam side pedigree is not impressive. That dam has thrown siblings to him that are pedestrian, at best.
She only has one that is racing outside of AP... and that is Xixixi, who is a 4yo. His sire, Maimonides, isn't exactly setting the world on fire with his offspring either. AP's other siblings are a yearling filly and a 2015 colt. Not exactly a good sample size. Seems she is 50/50 at producing TC winners

1 for 3 since you can't ignore her first foal who never made it to the races. Still a nice argument, if you want to make it that way and ignore the potential randomness factor of producing a TC winner. Her pedigree is pretty unfashionable, regardless, and she wasn't much horse on the racetrack in her brief career. I'll lean on those two facts myself.

Despite that, I'm sure every third foal will be a TC winner. Should we get the trophy engraved for Irish Pharoah already?

Somnambulist · Sun Jun 14, 2015 8:11 pm

I had an incredibly in-depth convo about this this morning (surprisingly) and the individual I was talking with and I both agreed that we don't see the market supporting an unrealistic stud fee.

If he's 6 figures I'm very surprised. I don't see it happening. This isn't 10 years ago.

Somnambulist · Sun Jun 14, 2015 8:13 pm

CoronadosQuest wrote:
She only has one that is racing outside of AP... and that is Xixixi, who is a 4yo. His sire, Maimonides, isn't exactly setting the world on fire with his offspring either. AP's other siblings are a yearling filly and a 2015 colt. Not exactly a good sample size. Seems she is 50/50 at producing TC winners

Who names these horses? I swear. Is this based off the Chinese poet or no?

On the plus side, that useless class I took in college on pre-post revolutionary China just paid off. I know who Xixi was. My education was worth it!

Retrospectiv · Sun Jun 14, 2015 8:21 pm

Admin wrote:Lots of rumors about pricing but it's looking as though Zayat maybe led us astray. Oppenheimer and others in the industry seem sure that he was purchased for less than $14m plus kickers back last Winter (not between the Preakness and Belmont as Zayat stated). Even with a huge kicker such as $10m for winning the TC, it'd seem virtually impossible for Coolmoore to be on the hook for anything close to $50m. Those who are estimating around $30m would appear to be correct.

Regardless of what the farm pays, the stud fee is based on what breeders will pay. I don't think there's a chance he can command $175k or more. $75k-$100k seems more realistic. His pedigree is ok but not outstanding, and from what I can tell from his yearling and other photos, his looks are nice but not outstanding.

It's funny....I read an article last week stating that he'd sold the breeding rights back in the winter, and for around $8 million - so much lower than what the speculation has been. I can't see his price even with the incentives having been anywhere near $50 million particularly if he was purchased prior to his Derby win. Good but not great pedigree, young sire, good but not drop dead looks.....