Horse Racing Forum - USA Thoroughbred Races

His first 5 foal crops produced 97-113-102-81-40 foals, then rebounded to 113. I had a vague recollection that his first few years' crops were not outstanding although he did sire Palace Malice in his first crop; the BH Stallion Register shows that he had only 4% BTW's from the 2011 crop and the crop was 'led' by Texas Ryano and Diversy Harbor. The 40 foal crop of 2014 would have been conceived in 2013 when his first crop was 3. Was the drop just based on a feeling that he wasn't going to be the next big thing, or did he have health issues around that time? After the 113 in 2015, he had 130-110-94 though 2018 (the last year shown). Just curious!

I remember that after a few years he moved from Lanes End to Hill n Dale, perhaps the move had something to do with the increase?

Diver52 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 4:14 pm His first 5 foal crops produced 97-113-102-81-40 foals, then rebounded to 113. I had a vague recollection that his first few years' crops were not outstanding although he did sire Palace Malice in his first crop; the BH Stallion Register shows that he had only 4% BTW's from the 2011 crop and the crop was 'led' by Texas Ryano and Diversy Harbor. The 40 foal crop of 2014 would have been conceived in 2013 when his first crop was 3. Was the drop just based on a feeling that he wasn't going to be the next big thing, or did he have health issues around that time? After the 113 in 2015, he had 130-110-94 though 2018 (the last year shown). Just curious!

i would say it was just a case of low demand as this happens (very) often when a stallion that i guess had big shoes to fill from the start didn't get going straight away. i think if you were to look at supposed-to-be-superstars stallions who just didn't succeed from their very first crops you'd see the same level of decline.

Calypso wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 4:34 pm I remember that after a few years he moved from Lanes End to Hill n Dale, perhaps the move had something to do with the increase?

i got curious too so i found the announcement from when it happened:

Curlin to Hill 'n' Dale in 2016
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... le-in-2016

Hill 'n' Dale was the successful bidder of a 20% interest in Curlin in a recently concluded sealed bid process. Barbara Banke, owner of Stonestreet, owns the other 80% of the stallion.
"This move was made to best direct Curlin's career under a new ownership structure. We look forward to working with Hill 'n' Dale to further our strategic plan to ensure that the world's highest-rated racehorse becomes amongst the world's most important stallions."

Diver52 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 4:14 pm His first 5 foal crops produced 97-113-102-81-40 foals, then rebounded to 113. I had a vague recollection that his first few years' crops were not outstanding although he did sire Palace Malice in his first crop; the BH Stallion Register shows that he had only 4% BTW's from the 2011 crop and the crop was 'led' by Texas Ryano and Diversy Harbor. The 40 foal crop of 2014 would have been conceived in 2013 when his first crop was 3. Was the drop just based on a feeling that he wasn't going to be the next big thing, or did he have health issues around that time? After the 113 in 2015, he had 130-110-94 though 2018 (the last year shown). Just curious!

Hope you wanted a big answer. hahaha (Apologies if I typed anything wrong or forgot something, I edited this like 10x)

It was more that his foals don't tend to be 2yo runners and usually take time to get going. We know that in hindsight but no one knew that then, I would assume they thought he was going to be a flop. His first crop yearlings also didn't sell particularly well given his initial stud fee. I would expect a 75k stud fee to bring at least 2-3x the fee and a 2xHOTY/CH 3yo/Older Horse to get even more. For example, Authentic who went to stud at 75k, his first yearlings sold for an average of $285,033, of course this is 10+ years later, it was just an easy example.

stud year - stud fee - yearling average from this stud fee crop
2009 - 75k - $136,780
2010 - 40k - $77,805
2011 - 40k - $80,370
2012 - 40k - $132,405
2013 - 25k - $210,733
2014 - 25k - $219,182
2015 - 100k - $281,982

The 40 foals from 2014, those breeders took a chance and they would definitely reap the rewards, as the above list shows. Those mares would have been booked the previous fall, while his first crop 2yos weren't doing much. With only 2 stakes placed runners, he finished 9th on the leading Freshman List. Palace Malice didn't win a Stakes until he won the Belmont and was Curlin's first GSW and 3rd SWr(the 1st was Countess Curlin at Sunland in February and the 2nd was Stopshoppingdebbie at Emerald Downs at the end of May). The breeding season is pretty much over by then, it wasn't going to cause Curlin to get a rush of mares that year. He finished 2013, 3rd on the 2nd crop sires list with 5 SWrs. Him showing he could get a Classic Winner in his first crop made breeders want to breed to him. Then in his 2011 crop, besides who you mentioned he also got Ride on Curlin who was 2nd in the Preakness and Top Billing who looked promising on the TC trail before being injured. Add to that Palace Malice started out his 4yo year with 5 straight GSWs, including the Met Mile. Curlin's 2012 crop had Keen Ice, Stellar Wind and Curalina. With a 3rd straight year of showing he could get Classic contenders, this cemented him as a sire people wanted to use and his stud fee skyrocketed. He has been popular since and Stonestreet has always limited his book, its why he doesn't have 200+ crops cause if they let it happen, it would happen.

Truly it he had stood at another farm and wasn't owned almost exclusively by Stonestreet, he might have been sold off after that abysmal first year. Which is something that we see quite often now. Its crazy to look back on, that in 2013 while standing for 25k he only got 54 mares(40 live foals). He wasn't the only one from that 2007 3yo crop that had downtimes, both Hard Spun and Street Sense were doing poorly at an early point in their careers and Darley sent them to Japan for a breeding season each.

I remember on another racing forum, there was someone who was bashing Curlin and saying he was over-rated, would never succeed as a sire, etc.
All it took was some patience and time. The expectation (if there ever was) that he would produce precocious babies was absurd.

The horse is legendary.

Also, Smart Strike hasn't got a particularly stellar record as a sire of sires, as I recall. English Channel and Lookin At Lucky are basically the only two names that come to mind that had much success at stud. (Of course, I may be forgetting somebody huge). There was the good California stallion Square Eddie, but I'm frankly not sure he would have enjoyed the success he had out here in CA if it hadn't been for the huge support he had from his owner/breeder Paul Reddam.

Maybe that might have had something to do with Curlin's poor reception in his first two or three years?

Thank you all, and especially Flanders, for all the work and information! I definitely remember that Curlin had a slow start, The Stallion Register shows that his first two crops produced zero 2yo black-type winners, which surely didn't help.

Missbeholder wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:30 pm Also, Smart Strike hasn't got a particularly stellar record as a sire of sires, as I recall. English Channel and Lookin At Lucky are basically the only two names that come to mind that had much success at stud. (Of course, I may be forgetting somebody huge). There was the good California stallion Square Eddie, but I'm frankly not sure he would have enjoyed the success he had out here in CA if it hadn't been for the huge support he had from his owner/breeder Paul Reddam.

Maybe that might have had something to do with Curlin's poor reception in his first two or three years?

No. While that might become a factor later in a stallions career after he has had a bunch of failed sons at stud, Curlin was from Smart Strike's 6th crop. There just wouldn't have been time for sons to have raced, gone to stud and have racing age foals by then. A lot of the males in Smart Strike's first 3-4 crops were geldings. He had Tenpins that went to stud in Kentucky but his first foals were born in 2006. English Channel stood his first year at stud in 2008. Lookin at Lucky and Square Eddie are younger than Curlin.

Flanders wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 8:11 pm

Missbeholder wrote: ↑Sat Jan 13, 2024 1:30 pm Also, Smart Strike hasn't got a particularly stellar record as a sire of sires, as I recall. English Channel and Lookin At Lucky are basically the only two names that come to mind that had much success at stud. (Of course, I may be forgetting somebody huge). There was the good California stallion Square Eddie, but I'm frankly not sure he would have enjoyed the success he had out here in CA if it hadn't been for the huge support he had from his owner/breeder Paul Reddam.

Maybe that might have had something to do with Curlin's poor reception in his first two or three years?

No. While that might become a factor later in a stallions career after he has had a bunch of failed sons at stud, Curlin was from Smart Strike's 6th crop. There just wouldn't have been time for sons to have raced, gone to stud and have racing age foals by then. A lot of the males in Smart Strike's first 3-4 crops were geldings. He had Tenpins that went to stud in Kentucky but his first foals were born in 2006. English Channel stood his first year at stud in 2008. Lookin at Lucky and Square Eddie are younger than Curlin.

Gotcha, Flanders! I didn't think about the issues of timeline and age when making that post, and it makes me look more than a little dumb! Thanks for straightening me out!

Missbeholder wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 3:32 pm Gotcha, Flanders! I didn't think about the issues of timeline and age when making that post, and it makes me look more than a little dumb! Thanks for straightening me out!

No you are fine. My intention wasn't to make you "look dumb". You had a valid reason that could be a reason in other situations, it just didn't apply here.