Horse Racing Forum - USA Thoroughbred Races

I'm bored so I'm making my guesses on who gets the boot from Kentucky for next breeding season based on how they are doing at this point. I wanted to do it before the yearling sales start, then I'll try to remember to post again after the September yearling sale. And maybe again after the Report of Mares Bred is released in October.

Coolmore has sold on stallions like Declaration of War and Caravaggio, who were doing well. Cupid, Mendelssohn and Mo Town aren't doing good.

Spendthrift is bound to get rid of someone, I'm just not sure who cause they have 4 stallions making strong arguments for pick me. Cloud Computing, Free Drop Billy, Gormley and Mor Spirit. All doing bad. Cloud Computing, Free Drop Billy, and Mor Spirit have 1 SW each. Gormley has 3(including a GSW who never did anything again) but his oldest foals are 4yos.

WinStar, I think Always Dreaming is the first to go. Good Samaritan I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't come back from Chile where he has sired the majority of his SWs.

Tapwrit is doing the best of the 3 - 2017 Triple Crown race winners but the effort isn't good enough for Kentucky. Since he is at Gainesway maybe they give him another year.

If Accelerate and West Coast weren't at Lane's End I would think they'd be on the list. Unified also.

Wouldn't be shocked if Mastery got sold on. I know he is at Claiborne and they give them longer chances than others, same with the Lane's End stallions. But he is not doing well and I wouldn't be surprised if his 2023 RMB is going to be in the single digits again.

Palace Malice, I almost forgot he was still in Kentucky. Has covered 12 (2022) and 14 (2021) mares the past 2 years. Hasn't done anything to make that number go up. On the opposite side, I'm hoping that Three Chimneys gives Funtastic a real opportunity. He didn't get much of a shot to begin with, but has 5% SW from just 44 foals of racing age(age 2 and 3).

I'd also add any stallion at Calumet but never know what they are going to do.

I was going to add a Darby Dan stallion or two but they seem to stand a lot of stallions for their owners and don't care if they are bred to. The main one for guess purposes is Dolphus. I don't know why he stands in Kentucky to begin with.

Very interesting, Flanders! Thanks for putting that little predictive exercise together.

I did notice that the roster at Hill 'N' Dale didn't come up for you. Do you think every stallion there is still safe from being "exiled"? I know that Ghostzapper and even Midnight Lute are getting into the twilight of their stud careers, so I wouldn't expect to see them going anywhere at this point. Of course Curlin, Good Magic, and Violence are pretty much untouchable. I was just wondering about Charlatan and Mucho Macho Man. Do they have any encouraging numbers?

I'm a big fan of Hill 'N' Dale, so I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on their roster. Thanks!

I also like Funtastic. I think he has done well with limited opportunities.

this is interesting!

Calumet:
i've said this before and i'll say it again, i don't understand how Calumet even maintains their stallions to begin with. so it's a very tricky question. honestly, any of them? who knows...

Claiborne:
Mastery? maybe? however if they have kept Lea after all this time, i'm not too sure if they're really planning on selling any stallions for the time being.

Coolmore:
from the three you listed — i think Mendelssohn stays for a few more seasons just based on who his half-brother is. Cupid and Mo Town, in the other hand... maaaybe Cupid stays for another season? Mo Town likely gets sold to a regional market, imo. now, this might be a stretch because i don't think Coolmore has ever sold a stallion before their progeny hit the track, but i wouldn't be too surprised if they got rid of Maximum Security based on his sales alone. and from what i've seen, his books are... kinda mediocre. can't blame the breeders, i guess. if not now, unless he is a success, i see him getting sold before the 2026 season at most (but we're still very far away from that ). i wouldn't be shocked if Lookin at Lucky also gets sent down to Chile permanently, maybe not now, though.

Darby Dan:
not in this particular order — Dolphus, Tale of Silence and just judging by how his first foals are doing in general, Copper Bullet?

Gainesway:
i'm not sure if they're big on selling their stallions, to be honest? but if i have to choose one, Tapwrit.

Lane's End:
same as Gainesway. if i have to pick (in order): West Coast, The Factor, Unified and maybe Tonalist? and i honestly think that they'll only keep Honor Code for a long(er) period of time because of his sire. City of Light, Catalina Cruiser and Accelerate also don't seem to be doing well. if they sold their stallions more often, i wouldn't be surprised if Daredevil returned to Turkey.

Three Chimneys:
Palace Malice — also don't know how he's still there (or in Kentucky) — and Sharp Azteca (who also took a big blow with all the Servis/Navarro crap). i'd also like to think they'll give Funtastic more time. i'd say he is third in line.

Spendthrift:
agree with all four you pointed out, i think they’re the most likely ones to get the boot for 2024. plus, maybe, Jimmy Creed? and kinda early into the 2yo season, but i also vote for Coal Front. iirc, he has never bred big books (which everyone knows is a big must to stay at Spendthrift ) and seems to be the worst one among their class of first crop sires.

WinStar:
absolutely, without a shadow of doubt, Always Dreaming — i was honestly surprised that he was still there for this season. then, unless his foals start picking up soon, Yoshida? could use the same line of thought for Audible, but i don't think they'll drop a son of Into Mischief that fast. i'm not sure about Good Samaritan, but i guess i wouldn't be surprised if he did stay in Chile permanently. i'll use the same explanation i used for Maximum Security with Tom's d'Etat — maybe not now, but soon. though i think they never expected big things from him (did Coolmore expect big things from Maximum Security when he retired?).

ETA: didn't even really realize Hill n' Dale wasn't listed — so, uh... Lost Treasure — what is he doing in Kentucky anyways? — and World of Trouble. surprised he's been there for that long.

Yeah I purposefully didn't pick any first year stallions or stallions whose foals were not racing age. I didn't want to put Mucho Macho Man on the list cause I don't want him to move. But to me he is probably #1 if they chose.

Charlatan's first foals are weanlings and he bred a spectacular book of mares last year, they aren't going to be moving him anytime soon.

So Im gonna say

Winstar:yoshida or always dreaming.
Spendthrift:honestly any of their lower costing stallions
Coolmore:mendelssohn
I think a few will be moving from new york

Edit:how are honor AP and honor code I won't be surprised if one of them goes from lanes end

Justahorse wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 8:25 pm Edit:how are honor AP and honor code I won't be surprised if one of them goes from lanes end

Honor AP doesn't have foals of racing age, his oldest are yearlings.
Honor Code, Lane's End might hold onto him. They don't sell stallions as fast as other farms. But I would say not great.

Flanders wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 8:38 pm

Justahorse wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 8:25 pm Edit:how are honor AP and honor code I won't be surprised if one of them goes from lanes end

Honor AP doesn't have foals of racing age, his oldest are yearlings.
Honor Code, Lane's End might hold onto him. They don't sell stallions as fast as other farms. But I would say not great.

How are honor aps babies at sales? How often do they sell stallions? I can't even remember the last one they sold

Justahorse wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 9:04 pm

Flanders wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 8:38 pm

Justahorse wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 8:25 pm Edit:how are honor AP and honor code I won't be surprised if one of them goes from lanes end

Honor AP doesn't have foals of racing age, his oldest are yearlings.
Honor Code, Lane's End might hold onto him. They don't sell stallions as fast as other farms. But I would say not great.

How are honor aps babies at sales? How often do they sell stallions? I can't even remember the last one they sold

The yearling sales haven't started which is why I said I wanted to do the list before the sales.

Mr. Speaker is the last one I can think of and he moved to Texas for the 2022 breeding season. He is actually a pretty decent stallion, I was surprised he was moved. I guess no point keeping a stallion people don't want to breed to but has 5% SWs from foals of racing age and 2 G1SWs. Noble Mission moved to Japan for the 2021 breeding season.

Flanders wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 9:22 pm

Justahorse wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 9:04 pm

Flanders wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 8:38 pm
Honor AP doesn't have foals of racing age, his oldest are yearlings.
Honor Code, Lane's End might hold onto him. They don't sell stallions as fast as other farms. But I would say not great.

How are honor aps babies at sales? How often do they sell stallions? I can't even remember the last one they sold

The yearling sales haven't started which is why I said I wanted to do the list before the sales.

Mr. Speaker is the last one I can think of and he moved to Texas for the 2022. He is actually a pretty decent stallion, I was surprised he was moved. I guess no point keeping a stallion people don't want to breed to but has 5% SWs from foals of racing age and 2 G1SWs.

Blonde moment! I was thinking of the obs sales. God I need coffee

I obviously don't know his 2023 numbers, but Cupid got 174 mares in 2022. If he got anything near that, I get why they would keep him around. He may not be doing that great, but if that many people will breed to him at $5k/pop, he's more than earning his keep. And they have something to offer breeders at the low end of KY stud fees.

Flanders wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 6:52 pm Wouldn't be shocked if Mastery got sold on. I know he is at Claiborne and they give them longer chances than others, same with the Lane's End stallions. But he is not doing well and I wouldn't be surprised if his 2023 RMB is going to be in the single digits again.

I'd also add any stallion at Calumet but never know what they are going to do.

1. Why is Lea still there?

2. It's still crazy to me there were apparently breeders willing to shell out $50K or $100K or more for some of those stallions Calumet put in a sale last year (even if I think said stallions have upside if they were somewhere else) and then didn't actually sell them.

Turkey recently lost a couple of their elder stallions so I imagine they'll be shopping for 2024. I would say Always Dreaming seems like a Turkey horse except they already have his sire. They might jump on Palace Malice if he's available.

Re: Coolmore selling a stallion before the progeny hit the track - the first and only one that comes to mind is Hansen.

brunanas wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 7:50 pm Lane's End:
same as Gainesway. if i have to pick (in order): West Coast, The Factor, Unified and maybe Tonalist? and i honestly think that they'll only keep Honor Code for a long(er) period of time because of his sire. City of Light, Catalina Cruiser and Accelerate also don't seem to be doing well. if they sold their stallions more often, i wouldn't be surprised if Daredevil returned to Turkey.

bingo! https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/u ... louisiana/

Flanders wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 6:52 pm If Accelerate and West Coast weren't at Lane's End I would think they'd be on the list. Unified also.

Flanders called it too! ^

Hearing Palace Malice has been pensioned from stud.

mariasmon wrote: ↑Sat Jul 15, 2023 2:37 pm Hearing Palace Malice has been pensioned from stud.

Aww must not be getting love from breeders

Honor Code, sigh, should....but I don’t think LE would do that. I can’t believe he’s standing for $20,000 now - and he’s ice cold in the market. It’s going to be much worse when the 2021 crop (29 mares bred, I forget how many in foal) hit the races. At best he might have a crop in the mid-teens.

Flanders wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 8:38 pm

Justahorse wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 8:25 pm Edit:how are honor AP and honor code I won't be surprised if one of them goes from lanes end

Honor AP doesn't have foals of racing age, his oldest are yearlings.
Honor Code, Lane's End might hold onto him. They don't sell stallions as fast as other farms. But I would say not great.

I adore HAP, and I think he’s going to be a very good sire... but I think LE shouldn’t have great expectations of how his yearlings sell. He’s suffering for his sire....and, I don’t think he got a great 1st book of mares