Horse Racing Forum - USA Thoroughbred Races

As a rule of thumb it seems pretty clear that weanlings don't sell for as much as yearlings do. Yet a lot of very well-bred weanlings are going through the sales rings this month (and a few short yearlings will sell in January). Could someone explain the reasoning behind this? Is it often a cash flow issue? Is it something like a "short sale" where the seller thinks the stallion is going downhill? If the seller sees flaws and thinks the weanling won't show well in another ten months, surely buyers can see this too. In the case of a cheaply-bred weanling I can see that it might not be worthwhile to incur the extra costs to keep the animal for almost another year, but if you've got a pricey pedigree, why not wait until you will get top dollar?
Inside information (or wild speculation) appreciated!

It is all about who is taking the risk. The buyer is taking the risk when buying a weanling. The breeder is taking the risk when selling a yearling or two year old.

Diver52 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:31 pm As a rule of thumb it seems pretty clear that weanlings don't sell for as much as yearlings do. Yet a lot of very well-bred weanlings are going through the sales rings this month (and a few short yearlings will sell in January). Could someone explain the reasoning behind this? Is it often a cash flow issue? Is it something like a "short sale" where the seller thinks the stallion is going downhill? If the seller sees flaws and thinks the weanling won't show well in another ten months, surely buyers can see this too. In the case of a cheaply-bred weanling I can see that it might not be worthwhile to incur the extra costs to keep the animal for almost another year, but if you've got a pricey pedigree, why not wait until you will get top dollar?
Inside information (or wild speculation) appreciated!

The biggest reason for selling a horse as a weanling rather than a yearling is that it cuts your risk. Anything can happen in 10 months time--especially with horses. Even a minor injury can impact your ability to do well at a later sale. And a weanling that vets clean now, may develop issues before it's time to sell as a yearling.

Someone who has a weanling by a 2nd crop sire may want to offload it before the stallion's offspring have a chance to run at 2--because waiting means that you're betting that the sire will not only succeed but will hit a home run with his earliest runners.

A weanling that's too big may be sold before it can grow even more. One that's too small can be sold before its size disparity becomes more apparent. And some weanlings offered for sale because the current market loves the shiniest, newest toy--and nothing is newer than a 1st crop weanling.

Thanks for the replies. I guess a bird in the hand. . .and all that. It's interesting that for every risk-averse seller, there's a buyer (even a pinhooker) stepping up to take on the risk. But for sure that's what makes a marketplace.