WinStar and spendthrift and Coolmore

[TapitsGal]

I look at WinStar, spendthrift and Coolmores rosters and wonder which of these horses will be next to go to bring in another new stallion for 2021 or 2022

Exaggerator
Audible
Good Samaritan
Outwork (Outadore is his only stakes winner besides the Ill fated Samborella)
Yoshida
Fed Biz(35 mares 2019)
Paynter(97 mares 2019)
Tourist(70 mares 2019)

Spendthrift:
Brody's cause
Bolt d'oro(will they decide his attitude isn't worth keeping him?)
Jimmy Creed
Lord Nelson?
Cinco Charlie(77 mares 2019)
Free Drop Billy(82 mares 2019)
Can the Man(24 mares in 2019)
Dominus(29 mares in 2019)
Hit it a bomb(20 mares 2019)
Coolmore:
Competitive edge(66 mares 2019)

Are there any other ky stallions people think will be shipped out for 2021? Jockey club hasn't published the mares bred report yet for 2020

[Flanders]

Report of mares bred come out in mid-October in normal years. It might be late this year because the Jockey Club did release the 2021 projected foal crop late to allow breeders extra time to submit report of mares bred.

A huge part of the decision is the yearling sales, so after Keeneland September is over, if their yearling averages have plummeted from 2019, that is usually a good indication they will be on their way. But the way things are right now, without knowing the results of the yearling sale and without knowing mares bred in 2020, its hard to say. These would be my guesses based on progeny race results only.

Winstar:
Carpe Diem
Fed Biz
Paynter

Spendthrift:
Palace
Race Day
Wicked Strong

Coolmore:
Competitive Edge

One's I am surprised haven't gone yet:
Three Chimneys:
Strong Mandate
Will Take Charge

Any stallion at Calumet except English Channel.

Algorithms but he is at Claiborne.

I don't think Can The Man was at Spendthrift in 2020.

I expect Hit It A Bomb's 2020 report of mares bred to be dreadful again but he is doing pretty well at stud, so I would be really surprised if they sold him. I hate to try and judge horses whose first crop is 2, when its only September.
Once the yearling sale is over, I'll look at the stallions again.

[HB1994]

Will Take Charge is certainly doing his part to help confirm that Unbridled’s Song is not a sire of sires.

[Flanders]

Will Take Charge is certainly doing his part to help confirm that Unbridled’s Song is not a sire of sires.

I don't think Cross Traffic is doing well either but I imagine he got some better books because of Jaywalk so they might wait to see how they work out but I was tempted to throw him on a list. He has NY Traffic too who is okay but not good enough to keep a stallion over.

And I think you could say the same thing about Strong Mandate and Tiznow.

[Ziggypop]

Paynter brought in $970,000, how is that a failure?

[Flanders]

Paynter brought in $970,000, how is that a failure?

He has only had 3 GSWs in his career and his first crop are 5yos. They don't stick around Kentucky long if they can't get GSWs. This auction isn't going to help him out either. He has 2 in it and they are late, maybe last day. He hasn't had a yearling go through the ring in 2020 that covered his 2018 stud fee.

[Mylute]

It seems like several of Tiznow's sons have sired multiple graded winners and even G1W but they don't get Uncle Mo numbers so they immediately get shipped out to Timbuktu, so it's hard to truly say he hasn't sired a single good sire son because most haven't been given that much of a shot or chance to develop.

[Ziggypop]

Paynter brought in $970,000, how is that a failure?

He has only had 3 GSWs in his career and his first crop are 5yos. They don't stick around Kentucky long if they can't get GSWs. This auction isn't going to help him out either. He has 2 in it and they are late, maybe last day. He hasn't had a yearling go through the ring in 2020 that covered his 2018 stud fee.

I though about that after I posted. So thank you for your post.

[Northport]

I still can't really believe Strong Mandate and Will Take Charge are at Three Chimneys, though they don't have the same revolving door that the larger operations do. I'm bummed that Will Take Charge isn't doing well, he was such a tough campaigner and has a lovely pedigree. Oh well.

I was randomly looking through sales results from Keeneland November last year, and the amount of RNAs at zero dollars that Oxbow (and a lot of Calumet stallions, but Oxbow by far) had for weanlings was truly bonkers. Even at Keeneland September 2019, of the approximately 50 he had catalogued, there were 11 outs and 3 were purchased for between $10,000 and $20,000, the rest were less than $10,000 and one RNA'd at zero. I'm not sure who is breeding all these horses, but I have to guess that it's Calumet, as most of his progeny of racing age are Calumet bred.

He still stands for $10,000, and had really good sized books until it dipped to 40ish mares in 2019, but I'm interested to see if they further drop his fee (for a time they seemed allergic to standing stallions for less than $7,500) and if they continue to double down on the Ramsey method of breeding claimers to him that might be good nicks.

[Mylute]

Oxbow has actually had several SW and SP juveniles this year so im interested in watching what happens down the line.

He has County Final, who I believe was also a HORA sale topper, and then a filly named something like Bows and Whistles who won a stake last weekend.

[Northport]

Yeah, I mean, he's not doing terribly on the track, but he could definitely be doing better, it was just kind of shocking when I came across a string of 17 Oxbows RNAing for zero. As I said before, Calumet doesn't move a ton of their stallions on, at least not quickly, and since he's the best horse they've raced, I would be surprised if his spot there was ever in jeopardy.

Ghostzapper ended up being a really nice stallion after a slower start (the common thread is Awesome Again, not raw talent or book quality ), but GZ is 20 this year, I'd like to see AA get one more good sire son from his later crops, and it seems like Paynter may be running out of time at his current residence.

[Slinky_Malinky]

Any stallion at Calumet except English Channel.

Algorithms but he is at Claiborne.

Real Solution needs a fee drop to around $3500, but for that fee he will be a value. He's done better than most with the very limited opportunities he's had so far.

Algorithms -- same thing. He gets sound, useful bread-and-butter racehorses and occasionally gets a good one. In the $3000 - $6000 category, I'd put him behind the standout Skipshot, but ahead of Tale of Ekati, Dominus, Wicked Strong, Strong Mandate, or Gio Ponti in terms of "If I buy this horse will it pay the bills?"

(Edit stupid typo)

[Squeaky]

Will Take Charge is certainly doing his part to help confirm that Unbridled’s Song is not a sire of sires.

UBS is becoming an impressive broodmare sire though.

[Retrospectiv]

Will Take Charge is certainly doing his part to help confirm that Unbridled’s Song is not a sire of sires.

UBS is becoming an impressive broodmare sire though.

Speaking of Three Chimney's stallions - when's the last time they did well with a stallion who started their stud career there? They've had modest success with some lower and mid range sires.

Number of expensive big name failures, who all had $75,000-$100,000+ stud fees

Silver Charm
Point Given
Smarty Jones

[Flanders]

Will Take Charge is certainly doing his part to help confirm that Unbridled’s Song is not a sire of sires.

UBS is becoming an impressive broodmare sire though.

Speaking of Three Chimney's stallions - when's the last time they did well with a stallion who started their stud career there? They've had modest success with some lower and mid range sires.

Number of expensive big name failures, who all had $75,000-$100,000+ stud fees

Silver Charm
Point Given
Smarty Jones

Not sure what level of success we are talking here. Sky Mesa or Rahy depending on what level stallion you mean. I was going to say Exchange Rate or Yes Its True but they both stood in Florida before moving to Three Chimneys. I'm not 100% sure if Rahy started his stud career at Three Chimneys either, he isn't listed in the stallion directory as standing anywhere in 1990 but he was at Three Chimneys in 1991. Dynaformer started at Wafare, Wild Again was Calumet, Seattle Slew started at Spendthrift, Chief's Crown started at Three Chimneys but would have been at stud before Rahy. Slew O'Gold started there as well but his stallion career was weird. I know I talked about this probably here years ago, he started off so insanely good and then got EPM and just didn't sire much after that. He got 6 G1SWers and 11 overall SWers from his first 2 crops of 90 foals (12.2%), then got 2 G1SWs and 17 SWs from his following 491 foals. Slew O'Gold's stud career always fascinated me because of the polar opposite his first 2 crops were compared to the rest.

[Northport]

Will Take Charge is certainly doing his part to help confirm that Unbridled’s Song is not a sire of sires.

UBS is becoming an impressive broodmare sire though.

Speaking of Three Chimney's stallions - when's the last time they did well with a stallion who started their stud career there? They've had modest success with some lower and mid range sires.

Number of expensive big name failures, who all had $75,000-$100,000+ stud fees

Silver Charm
Point Given
Smarty Jones

Add Big Brown to that list.

In terms of last time they started a good stallion... Dynaformer? Rahy?

eta: nevermind, I was going off of Wikipedia, which made it sound like those stallions started there, but it appears I am wrong!

[Retrospectiv]

UBS is becoming an impressive broodmare sire though.

Speaking of Three Chimney's stallions - when's the last time they did well with a stallion who started their stud career there? They've had modest success with some lower and mid range sires.

Number of expensive big name failures, who all had $75,000-$100,000+ stud fees

Silver Charm
Point Given
Smarty Jones

Add Big Brown to that list.

In terms of last time they started a good stallion... Dynaformer? Rahy?

eta: nevermind, I was going off of Wikipedia, which made it sound like those stallions started there, but it appears I am wrong!

Ya, forgot BB

And that's my point.... if it's been 3 decades since they've had sire success with anything starting their career there.

I know you're gonna fail waay more times than win with any stallion, but that's a poor strike from what should have been some (initially) well supported stallions. Terrible luck there.

[Flanders]

UBS is becoming an impressive broodmare sire though.

Speaking of Three Chimney's stallions - when's the last time they did well with a stallion who started their stud career there? They've had modest success with some lower and mid range sires.

Number of expensive big name failures, who all had $75,000-$100,000+ stud fees

Silver Charm
Point Given
Smarty Jones

Add Big Brown to that list.

In terms of last time they started a good stallion... Dynaformer? Rahy?

eta: nevermind, I was going off of Wikipedia, which made it sound like those stallions started there, but it appears I am wrong!

Rahy probably started there.

[Flanders]

Ya, forgot BB

And that's my point.... if it's been 3 decades since they've had sire success with anything starting their career there.

I know you're gonna fail waay more times than win with any stallion, but that's a poor strike from what should have been some (initially) well supported stallions. Terrible luck there.

Yeah but it also goes to show why some farms bring in so many new stallions every year. Its easier to find a good one if you are bringing in multiple new stallions, it just makes it a revolving door. Its a real crapshoot to find a good stallion.

Time For A Change was a solid stallion that stood there too but he died young. He went to stud before Rahy though. Fly So Free was pensioned and died young too but didn't do much. I think they stood Medallist and for some reason I thought they stood a UBS son that died really young but maybe I'm confusing another farm.

[Flanders]

Spendthrift:
Palace
Race Day
Wicked Strong

I hit the nail on the head here. I know Palace was sold but the other two aren't listed on Spendthrift's stallion roster for 2021.