Horse Racing Forum - USA Thoroughbred Races

Caval, Blame's first winner then fifth in the 2014 Sorrento at Del Mar; off several months then second in a Keeneland allowance. Showed up today in for $32,000. She is out of a Storm Cat mare. Seems like she would have had about the same value as a broodmare but maybe I am way off? She was a $170,000 yearling, I think they said.

Diver52 wrote:Caval, Blame's first winner then fifth in the 2014 Sorrento at Del Mar; off several months then second in a Keeneland allowance. Showed up today in for $32,000. She is out of a Storm Cat mare. Seems like she would have had about the same value as a broodmare but maybe I am way off? She was a $170,000 yearling, I think they said.

I tend to agree with you, as she very well may have been claimed with breeding in mind, although a now 1 for 4 record with no blacktype as a daughter of an unproven stallion isn't screaming 'breed me' to me. But what this filly does scream to me is the absolute downside of pushing a maiden winning two year old into stakes company in a second career start. She's never been the same and dropping to the level today was a back door exit, knowing she'd be claimed.

At Del Mar, there aren't allowances for juveniles. It's fill up the stakes. She was either favoured or close to against Sunset Glow. I don't know yet if she was claimed today.

She is probably worth a great deal more than 32k as a broodmare. She's a winner and half-sister to G2 winner DERBAAS. Her Storm Cat dam is full sister to European champion and G1 winner ALJABR.

She was a big, good-looking yearling (I saw her at the sale) and brought 150K. I doubt that she will be seen in claiming company again.

TBird wrote:She is probably worth a great deal more than 32k as a broodmare. She's a winner and half-sister to G2 winner DERBAAS. Her Storm Cat dam is full sister to European champion and G1 winner ALJABR.

She was a big, good-looking yearling (I saw her at the sale) and brought 150K. I doubt that she will be seen in claiming company again.

This is actually a pretty interesting case study of the types of things faced by owners of racing operations who also participate in breeding. What were the motivations of the owner yesterday? I think it's difficult not to accept that the owner/trainer were 'getting out'. For what reason, we can only speculate I think (health, appetite for being a breeder and time of year, etc). They more than likely understood that the filly was getting claimed for $32,000 yesterday given her speed figures going back to her 2 yo year, and if they considered her chances of taking home the winners share of $32,000 as strong as the betting public did (she was odds-on), they're looking at losing the filly for a $64,000 pay day two years before she 'may' have a saleable weanling on the ground. A $64,000 payday might very well have been a fair representation of her value as a broodmare. I also think it's probably fair to say your position is potentially buffered by the fact there were 5 claims in on her yesterday, although maybe every one of them were with a 'jacobsen' or 'rudy' plan in mind to squeeze out some more value on the racetrack (thru winning future races) before taking any residual broodmare value at the end of that run. Without knowing the roster of claim slips, its purely guesswork.

I don't know what the plans are with her with Charlton Baker as the Trainer/owner listed on the claim slip, but wouldn't be surprised with any future path, including getting her back to the races if any physical issues can be overcome to her being retired as of today with a breeding future in mind. Or maybe he flips her into the Keeneland November sale as a broodmare prospect if he sees through training the next couple weeks/months that she's physically okay.

My partner and I have these discussions often as we consider placing fillies at appropriate claiming levels, and also consider the economics of target filly claims. Sadly, to those around us when we have these debates, we're looked at as having a screw loose, but we love it, mixing in multiple personal passions of business, economics, racing and breeding. Anyone willing to join those types of chats around the pool the next two months at Saratoga, more than welcome. PMs welcome, desires to complain, not so much.

cheers.

Horsebagger wrote:

TBird wrote:She is probably worth a great deal more than 32k as a broodmare. She's a winner and half-sister to G2 winner DERBAAS. Her Storm Cat dam is full sister to European champion and G1 winner ALJABR.

She was a big, good-looking yearling (I saw her at the sale) and brought 150K. I doubt that she will be seen in claiming company again.

This is actually a pretty interesting case study of the types of things faced by owners of racing operations who also participate in breeding. What were the motivations of the owner yesterday? I think it's difficult not to accept that the owner/trainer were 'getting out'. For what reason, we can only speculate I think (health, appetite for being a breeder and time of year, etc). They more than likely understood that the filly was getting claimed for $32,000 yesterday given her speed figures going back to her 2 yo year, and if they considered her chances of taking home the winners share of $32,000 as strong as the betting public did (she was odds-on), they're looking at losing the filly for a $64,000 pay day two years before she 'may' have a saleable weanling on the ground. A $64,000 payday might very well have been a fair representation of her value as a broodmare. I also think it's probably fair to say your position is potentially buffered by the fact there were 5 claims in on her yesterday, although maybe every one of them were with a 'jacobsen' or 'rudy' plan in mind to squeeze out some more value on the racetrack (thru winning future races) before taking any residual broodmare value at the end of that run. Without knowing the roster of claim slips, its purely guesswork.

I don't know what the plans are with her with Charlton Baker as the Trainer/owner listed on the claim slip, but wouldn't be surprised with any future path, including getting her back to the races if any physical issues can be overcome to her being retired as of today with a breeding future in mind. Or maybe he flips her into the Keeneland November sale as a broodmare prospect if he sees through training the next couple weeks/months that she's physically okay.

My partner and I have these discussions often as we consider placing fillies at appropriate claiming levels, and also consider the economics of target filly claims. Sadly, to those around us when we have these debates, we're looked at as having a screw loose, but we love it, mixing in multiple personal passions of business, economics, racing and breeding. Anyone willing to join those types of chats around the pool the next two months at Saratoga, more than welcome. PMs welcome, desires to complain, not so much.

cheers.

Some people just race. They have no interest in the breeding end and a pedigree page is somewhat meaningless to them. A friend of mine who races sold a filly privately at the end of her race career for X only to see the filly sell 10 months later at KeeNov (in foal) for 10X. There was a very big update to the page since she'd purchased the filly as a yearling but she doesn't follow pedigrees and didn't know. She was just happy that the mare was going to a great post-race-career home. I told her to run future filly pages past me before selling.

The only thing that might keep that filly on the track is the fact that breeding season just ended. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see her entered in KeeNov as a broodmare prospect.

Thanks for all the views. One of these days I'm going to put a toe in the water and the more angles I understand, the better.

A good friend of mine did KEMI at Ashford (I believe) and took care of this filly as a youngster. She's got an eye on her and is always ready to email new owners offering to take any of her "kids" who are falling through the cracks, but she was quick to suggest the new owner just got a nice broodmare for a good price tag.

It'll be interesting where she goes. I agree that the only reason she might stay on the track is because breeding her right now is not ideal, but I still wouldn't mind seeing her get another stab at it if she's healthy, with her pretty meager race record.