Horse Racing Forum - USA Thoroughbred Races

it's a pretty common note that high end mares don't usually recreate themselves, but why does it seem their foals don't even make it to the races, or only race once or twice before falling off the planet? is that just me? just seems like the "who?" mares are the ones that have the successful foal(s). this can even apply to full siblings, but that can just be boiled down to "every horse is different"... just interesting that sometimes these horses just seem be so obscure despite the big names behind them.

Statistically speaking, dams with racing class are significantly more likely to produce runners with racing class; a number of analyses have demonstrated this. It is, of course, hard for the elite to reproduce themselves, because "elite" is the highest level. But they consistently produce, contrary to popular belief.

High-class racemares whose fillies are injured or show little in training are more likely to have those foals retired to the broodmare band. To a lesser extent these days (but greater in years past), their colts had value post-injury as stallion prospects. All this reduces their opportunities on the track.

I think the "who?" mares stick out for people because their offspring are most likely to get a full chance after injury than those out of a higher-class individual, simply because the secondary value isn't automatically there. So we get to see some horses do well who wouldn't have been given the opportunity if they'd been more fashionably-bred. We don't notice the failures, because nobody knows their names.

JMO.

sweettalk wrote:it's a pretty common note that high end mares don't usually recreate themselves, but why does it seem their foals don't even make it to the races, or only race once or twice before falling off the planet? is that just me? just seems like the "who?" mares are the ones that have the successful foal(s). this can even apply to full siblings, but that can just be boiled down to "every horse is different"... just interesting that sometimes these horses just seem be so obscure despite the big names behind them.

If you go back in history of breeding the Thoroughbred you'll find The Aga Khan Stud, one of the top breeders of the world, maintains the sisters and half sisters of their top race mares were their best broodmares.

Hail To Reason wrote:

sweettalk wrote:it's a pretty common note that high end mares don't usually recreate themselves, but why does it seem their foals don't even make it to the races, or only race once or twice before falling off the planet? is that just me? just seems like the "who?" mares are the ones that have the successful foal(s). this can even apply to full siblings, but that can just be boiled down to "every horse is different"... just interesting that sometimes these horses just seem be so obscure despite the big names behind them.

If you go back in history of breeding the Thoroughbred you'll find The Aga Khan Stud, one of the top breeders of the world, maintains the sisters and half sisters of their top race mares were their best broodmares.

now those are some stats i'd love to see. i bet that would be a very interesting read.

thank you both for the input, i'm not as knowledgeable about the breeding side of racing, so i'm trying to learn.

The genes available in any purebred gene pool are finite. Most seriously bred animals will result in genetic combinations that that fall somewhere in the middle of the bell curve - the "average". Only a few will be the recipients of the happy combination that promotes excellence.

A top mare can pass along only half of her genes, the stallion the other. Their own happy combination of genes scatters and recombines. Thus, neither parent can truly "reproduce itself". Even the most dominant of types are more likely to produce a foal that falls within the average for their respective families.

The best a breeder can do is try to push their own breeding population towards the high performing side of the bell curve, building an average for that barn or kennel that's somewhat better than the average for the breed.

That done, one then waits for the Gods to smile and deliver the exceptional individual. The closer to the right of that curve your own "average" animals fall, the more often the Gods are likely to smile.

Katewerk wrote:The genes available in any purebred gene pool are finite. Most seriously bred animals will result in genetic combinations that that fall somewhere in the middle of the bell curve - the "average". Only a few will be the recipients of the happy combination that promotes excellence.

A top mare can pass along only half of her genes, the stallion the other. Their own happy combination of genes scatters and recombines. Thus, neither parent can truly "reproduce itself". Even the most dominant of types are more likely to produce a foal that falls within the average for their respective families.

The best a breeder can do is try to push their own breeding population towards the high performing side of the bell curve, building an average for that barn or kennel that's somewhat better than the average for the breed.

That done, one then waits for the Gods to smile and deliver the exceptional individual. The closer to the right of that curve your own "average" animals fall, the more often the Gods are likely to smile.

All-around lovely post.

luvthesales wrote:Statistically speaking, dams with racing class are significantly more likely to produce runners with racing class; a number of analyses have demonstrated this. It is, of course, hard for the elite to reproduce themselves, because "elite" is the highest level. But they consistently produce, contrary to popular belief.

High-class racemares whose fillies are injured or show little in training are more likely to have those foals retired to the broodmare band. To a lesser extent these days (but greater in years past), their colts had value post-injury as stallion prospects. All this reduces their opportunities on the track.

I think the "who?" mares stick out for people because their offspring are most likely to get a full chance after injury than those out of a higher-class individual, simply because the secondary value isn't automatically there. So we get to see some horses do well who wouldn't have been given the opportunity if they'd been more fashionably-bred. We don't notice the failures, because nobody knows their names.

JMO.

I thought this was really great. It's clear you have a lot of knowledge and you aren't nasty about sharing it.

Just gonna keep puffing up your ego so you post here as much as you used to!

luvthesales wrote:I think the "who?" mares stick out for people because their offspring are most likely to get a full chance after injury than those out of a higher-class individual, simply because the secondary value isn't automatically there. So we get to see some horses do well who wouldn't have been given the opportunity if they'd been more fashionably-bred. We don't notice the failures, because nobody knows their names.

And to add to this, the "who?" mares often have male progeny that aren't automatically kept intact for likely residual stud value, they're gelded as needed to keep them racing. Look at Lisa Danielle and her sons

Speaking of, I know that Pedigree Query notes can come from anyone and aren't always accurate, but was Lisa Danielle really pensioned this year?

BlindLucky wrote:

luvthesales wrote:I think the "who?" mares stick out for people because their offspring are most likely to get a full chance after injury than those out of a higher-class individual, simply because the secondary value isn't automatically there. So we get to see some horses do well who wouldn't have been given the opportunity if they'd been more fashionably-bred. We don't notice the failures, because nobody knows their names.

And to add to this, the "who?" mares often have male progeny that aren't automatically kept intact for likely residual stud value, they're gelded as needed to keep them racing. Look at Lisa Danielle and her sons

Speaking of, I know that Pedigree Query notes can come from anyone and aren't always accurate, but was Lisa Danielle really pensioned this year?

She was indeed, after losing her More Than Ready foal:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... -keeneland
Lisa Danielle, now retired as a broodmare, has three other siblings to Wise Dan still on the track.

Somnambulist wrote: I thought this was really great. It's clear you have a lot of knowledge and you aren't nasty about sharing it.

Just gonna keep puffing up your ego so you post here as much as you used to!

Ha. Thanks, Som. Genuinely appreciated.