Horse Racing Forum - USA Thoroughbred Races

Im just wondering a horse like him who now has a met mile and belmont under him, say he goes undefeated for the rest of the year and wins the whitney, JCGC and the breeders cup classic. i think his stud fee would easily be 100k what do you guys think?

Curlin was $75k in his first year. No way PM is higher than that, imo.

If he retired tomorrow I would say 35k.

yea good points i might have jinxed him with this thread lol but you i'm just looking at it and his resume is building up pretty good and being by curlin people will be lining up for him.

reverberate wrote:yea good points i might have jinxed him with this thread lol but you i'm just looking at it and his resume is building up pretty good and being by curlin people will be lining up for him.

Why?

reverberate wrote:yea good points i might have jinxed him with this thread lol but you i'm just looking at it and his resume is building up pretty good and being by curlin people will be lining up for him.

Curlin stands currently for $25,000. Palace Malice will go for about $50,000-60,000, maybe?

Horsebagger wrote:

reverberate wrote:yea good points i might have jinxed him with this thread lol but you i'm just looking at it and his resume is building up pretty good and being by curlin people will be lining up for him.

Curlin stands currently for $25,000. Palace Malice will go for about $50,000-60,000, maybe?

Why would anybody pay more for him than for Curlin? I don't see that.

I'd imagine Curlin might bump up a little if PM has a stellar year AND he has some more good runners. Otherwise, I can't imagine one good runner doing so much for him. Also would be hard to imagine PM standing for more than Curlin.

Curlin has some nice sophomores this year in Diversy Harbor, who is G1-stakes placed. Although Ride On Curlin hasn't won a stakes, he's G1-stakes placed. Please Explain is a nice filly too. And, if Top Billing comes back, maybe we'll see more from him.

Makes no sense to me. Why would you think anyone would want to pay $50,000 for an unproven stud when they could pay half of that for his sire, a proven stallion?

But, on a side note, I do love that the horse is a grade I winner at a mile and a mile and a half. Very few handicap horses can say that.

Izvestia wrote:Curlin has some nice sophomores this year in Diversy Harbor, who is G1-stakes placed. Although Ride On Curlin hasn't won a stakes, he's G1-stakes placed. Please Explain is a nice filly too. And, if Top Billing comes back, maybe we'll see more from him.

Curlin is a better stallion than people give him credit for. A classic winner in his first crop and a classic runner-up in his second, along with the horses you listed. Stakes performers Flash Forward, Socialbug, and undefeated stakes winner Stopshoppingdebbie have all shown talent. He also has quality runners across the sea. Devcalion, Lucky First, and Zimniy Dvorets are all G1/G2 winners in Russia and Cerro Blanco is mult G2 placed in Peru. His progeny have 54 wins this year. That's on par with other proven stallions, and better than some. He obviously must produce more GSW to even be considered a great sire, but I think the potential is there.

As for PM, I highly doubt he would ever stand for more than 30k, and even that is pushing it when Curlin stands for less. 12-15k is more likely.

I agree, I think Curlin doesn't get the credit he deserves as a sire. Perhaps people expected him to produce himself instantly? That seems to happen a lot when a "big" name horse retires to stud. Expectations are high.

Smart Strike and Curlin didn't start until they were 3. Curlin's offspring are slower developing. Smart Strike's also seem to get better with age (outside of My Miss Aurelia and Lookin At Lucky...who I think would have been even better as he got older). Curlin has a lot of quality horses out there.

As for PM, he has gotten even better with age and I think $30-50,000 is a good range for him at this point. If he keeps on winning (and it looks like he will), say for example, the BC Classic, they might price him higher. But, I also think Curlin would be eligible to have a price bump in that situation too. Especially because the horses I mentioned (Diversy Harbor?) have a lot of upside, and I can see them winning some big ones as they year goes on.

Horsebagger wrote:

reverberate wrote:yea good points i might have jinxed him with this thread lol but you i'm just looking at it and his resume is building up pretty good and being by curlin people will be lining up for him.

Curlin stands currently for $25,000. Palace Malice will go for about $50,000-60,000, maybe?

You think that high? I'd guess 30ish. But it's contingent on the rest of the year to an extent.

Somnambulist wrote:

Horsebagger wrote:

reverberate wrote:yea good points i might have jinxed him with this thread lol but you i'm just looking at it and his resume is building up pretty good and being by curlin people will be lining up for him.

Curlin stands currently for $25,000. Palace Malice will go for about $50,000-60,000, maybe?

You think that high? I'd guess 30ish. But it's contingent on the rest of the year to an extent.

I think it's conceivable, for a couple of reasons.

-His Met Mile win was significant to him for the ability to market him as a G1 winner at a Mile, and a classic winner at 1.5 miles.
-I do anticipate continued success from him the rest of the year, and a HOY title (or at the least an Older Make eclipse) is going to help the marketing even more. Hopefully, he can make it through the year and retire (eventually) without injury as the reason. Soundness and Older horse success on the racetrack can help the marketing too. Even in today's world.
-Curlin had bad timing as a stallion prospect. I think where the stud fee went from/to for him is a function of what happened to the breeding industry (and to the world) because of the recent recession. I expect his 2015 fee to possibly go up marginally if PM continues to perform.
-The sales market is starting to heat up again. We're on the cusp of another upward cycle in the breeding industry, which I compare favorably to cycles in commercial real estate. Timing is everything.
-To me, he has a pretty versatile pedigree to match mares to. Speed/distance/dirt/turf. He'll get mares.
-Union Rags came out at a fee of $35,000 near the bottom of the market with a Belmont win, and an ontrack performance as a 2yo dislpaying his speed and precocity, but retired ultimately prematurely from injury. he got more than 130 mares his first year. Granted, losing Dixie Union helped his ability to attract mares, imo. Having Curlin alive and well doesn't help Palice Malice when he hits the shed, but he's now being measured on different criteria than PM will be coming out in years 1 and 2.

In the end, I'm guessing (note the "?" at the end of my post) and a lot of my points above can be argued/countered/debated. But I think he is creating a resume and a story that is sellable for aggressive pricing initially in what I anticipate will be a strengthening market. But a lot depends on where he stands (Location, location, location!). Regardless, he'll be an interesting case study about the direction of the US breeding industry.

There is always excitement over a top new stallion for his first 2 crops. In this third season, his first foals are 2 year olds and then the bubble bursts. Unless his first crop is incredibly successful, no one wants to breed to a 3rd or 4th crop stallion, because his get will not have a lot of upside potential at the yearling sales. (And, as we all know, the commercial breeding market is everything now) so the mares he gets during those seasons is of a much lower quality that he covered in years 1 and 2.

So now, his 3rd and 4th crops hit the ground and start racing. They are often less successful than crops 1 and 2 because the mares were not of the same quality.

THIS is when our stallions get sold overseas.

This is also when the first 2 crops have fully realized their potential even while his stud fee has gone down. If the horse has not been sold overseas, this is when his price levels out and his true worth is becoming known.

Sadly, often by the 5th crop, top quality stallions have already been given up on. Empire Maker comes immediatley to mind -- although if I thought hard, I would probably come up with half a dozen more.

Lord Helpus wrote:There is always excitement over a top new stallion for his first 2 crops. In this third season, his first foals are 2 year olds and then the bubble bursts. Unless his first crop is incredibly successful, no one wants to breed to a 3rd or 4th crop stallion, because his get will not have a lot of upside potential at the yearling sales. (And, as we all know, the commercial breeding market is everything now) so the mares he gets during those seasons is of a much lower quality that he covered in years 1 and 2.

So now, his 3rd and 4th crops hit the ground and start racing. They are often less successful than crops 1 and 2 because the mares were not of the same quality.

THIS is when our stallions get sold overseas.

This is also when the first 2 crops have fully realized their potential even while his stud fee has gone down. If the horse has not been sold overseas, this is when his price levels out and his true worth is becoming known.

Sadly, often by the 5th crop, top quality stallions have already been given up on. Empire Maker comes immediatley to mind -- although if I thought hard, I would probably come up with half a dozen more.

I have to disagree with much of what you've said. The market has changed a great deal in the last few years. Breeders moved away from unproven stallions when the industry tanked in 2008. But recently, with the loss of so many good, proven horses, breeders have returned to give the new guys a try. It has to do with having fewer choices.

A new stallion's third crop is already bred before his first yearlings even reach the sales. His fourth crop is booked (and almost entirely bred) before his 2yos get to the track. So decisions are being made based on how the offspring look and their perceived potential, rather than actual performance. Again, it has to do with options and lack thereof. Third year and fourth books don't suffer nearly as much as they once did.

As for Empire Maker, no one gave up on him. He filled his book with good mares every single year that he stood in the U.S. The last year he stood at Juddmont his stud fee was $50,000 and he covered 139 mares. That looks like very good support from breeders to me.

-- Empire Maker's breeding record in the US

breeding year -- stud fee -- number of mares bred
2004 $100,000 111
2005 $100,000 116
2006 $100,000 131
2007 $100,000 130
2008 $100,000 151
2009 $75,000 87
2010 $50,000 139