Who is going to move?

[brunanas]

updating my opinions after the first moves:

Calumet:
still think that any of them, honestly? they did acquire a new stallion (Lexitonian) but they sure have a lot of space left so doesn't mean anything.

Claiborne:
nailed it with Mastery, sold to Japan. i think Lea (who i was never 100% high on being sold) remains as he does have two "good" runners this year in G3ws Poppy Flower and Nagirroc.

Coolmore:
kinda surprised we still haven't heard anything from them move-wise. my opinion still remains pretty much the same, but i'm thinking there's a chance Cupid goes to Canada after siring Carson's Run and Duke of Love. his sales this year seem to be worse than his already bad usual so that might motivate Coolmore to sell. still think Mo Town goes to a regional market. Maximum Security did get some good prices, not in general but he did have four 5-figure yearlings, so...? maybe that makes it so they allow him to have his first runners (if they ever planned to sell him before that anyways). and i also still think Mendelssohn gets a pass due to his family — Into Mischief is getting older and might not be around for much longer (breeding the way he has been...). Lookin at Lucky, same opinion, might go to Chile permanently.

Darby Dan:
uhhh... same thing (Dolphus, Tale of Silence and Copper Bullet)? Copper Bullet isn't doing "terribly" with the opportunities he got, i guess — currently 8th in the rankings with 5 winners from 14 starters. so from the 3 i mentioned, i think he's the least likely.

Gainesway:
still think Tapwrit if i have to choose. but not sure they'll sell any.

Hill n' Dale:
same opinion, Lost Treasure and World of Trouble.

Lane's End:
i had said that imo the ones more likely to leave were West Coast, The Factor, Unified and maybe Tonalist. surprised West Coast isn't gone yet and Unified has been sold. i thought they'd hang on to Honor Code for longer but he's also gone, so i don't know what that means to Honor A.P. if his first foals aren't good. my other options were City of Light, Catalina Cruiser and Accelerate — Catalina Cruiser moved to 7th in his rankings and City of Light to 6th in his, but Accelerate remains at 13th, so i think he's the one closest to the "danger zone" between the 3. still think there's a slight chance Daredevil goes back to Turkey but i don't think they'll sell any more this year.

Three Chimneys:
same thing (in this order): Palace Malice, Sharp Azteca and Funtastic.

Spendthrift:
i had agreed with Flanders in all the four that moved (Cloud Computing, FDB, Gormley and Mor Spirit). kinda also still think the next ones in line are Jimmy Creed and Coal Front, but i think they are done selling for the year as they have already posted their 2024 fees.

WinStar:
Always Dreaming might have bought himself more time with Saudi Crown. Audible started to pick up, Yoshida is still not doing well. still think Good Samaritan might end up at Chile permanently. Tom's d'Etat's sales weren't too good, but not sure if it justifies a sale yet.

[mariasmon]

they did acquire a new stallion (Lexitonian) but they sure have a lot of space left so doesn't mean anything.

Can we even count this since they bred and raced Lexitonian? He stood at Lane's End (anybody know whether he was syndicated or still property of Calumet?) for a couple of years and now they're taking him back, seemingly due to lack of interest?

[Flanders]

they did acquire a new stallion (Lexitonian) but they sure have a lot of space left so doesn't mean anything.

Can we even count this since they bred and raced Lexitonian? He stood at Lane's End (anybody know whether he was syndicated or still property of Calumet?) for a couple of years and now they're taking him back, seemingly due to lack of interest?

I'm pretty sure he is stood under Calumet ownership or the article kind of eluded to it. I wondered at the time of his retirement announcement if he was going to Lane's End because Calumet has such a hard time getting decent(or any) book sizes to their stallions. And if they were hoping Lane's End could establish him, pretty much like what they did with English Channel(though he did stand at Hurricane Hall his first year). But Lexitonian wasn't very well received and I don't think he got many mares this year.

[brunanas]

they did acquire a new stallion (Lexitonian) but they sure have a lot of space left so doesn't mean anything.

Can we even count this since they bred and raced Lexitonian? He stood at Lane's End (anybody know whether he was syndicated or still property of Calumet?) for a couple of years and now they're taking him back, seemingly due to lack of interest?

I'm pretty sure he is stood under Calumet ownership or the article kind of eluded to it. I wondered at the time of his retirement announcement if he was going to Lane's End because Calumet has such a hard time getting decent(or any) book sizes to their stallions. And if they were hoping Lane's End could establish him, pretty much like what they did with English Channel(though he did stand at Hurricane Hall his first year). But Lexitonian wasn't very well received and I don't think he got many mares this year.

yes i think that's very plausible.
he bred 46 (in comparison to 90 in his first year), which is i think very little by Lane's End's standards but a hell lot by Calumet's standards. unless he is REALLY good to the point of moving back to a bigger farm, i don't think he will ever see more than 15 mares a year again.

[brunanas]

Cupid Relocating to Atlanta Hall in Maryland
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/c ... -maryland/

[brunanas]

Lost Treasure is no longer in the Hill n' Dale roster.

[Mylute]

Lost Treasure is no longer in the Hill n' Dale roster.

Not a shock. That was one of the biggest "wtf?" stud acquisitions in recent memory. Does he even have foals running?

[Flanders]

Lost Treasure is no longer in the Hill n' Dale roster.

Not a shock. That was one of the biggest "wtf?" stud acquisitions in recent memory. Does he even have foals running?

Yes but he only had 15 foals, 3 starters, no winners. And their highest placing in 7 starts total is 5th. (5/6/7/8/8/9/10).

On a stallion's page on the Bloodhorse stallion register, the farms get to write something to advertise the stallion.

It says:
War Front / Galileo
Perhaps the Best Bred Stallion Prospect in the world.

WTF does that even mean? Yes he is by War Front, his broodmare sire isn't Galileo, he doesn't have Galileo anywhere in his pedigree. Sure his 2nd dam is a 1/2 to Galileo but its weird. You can tell they were REALLY reaching to try and find a way to advertise him.

[Mylute]

GSPW with a decent pedigree...he would be better suited for somewhere not Kentucky.

[Flanders]

GSPW with a decent pedigree...he would be better suited for somewhere not Kentucky.

Oh I agree with you completely. I almost wonder if it was them trying to take advantage of War Front having 2 popular sons at that specific time, Omaha Beach and War of Will(who didn't go to stud until the following year), and trying to give a cheap alternative? I don't have a problem with a farm trying something either, I think its interesting when a farm takes a chance and brings in a stallion that makes people go ???? But Coolmore had so many nice GSW with spectacular pedigrees by War Front, you would of thought they could have found one that was a little more appealing to the Kentucky market. Even though commercial breeders generally hates turf runners.

[Northport]

GSPW with a decent pedigree...he would be better suited for somewhere not Kentucky.

Oh I agree with you completely. I almost wonder if it was them trying to take advantage of War Front having 2 popular sons at that specific time, Omaha Beach and War of Will(who didn't go to stud until the following year), and trying to give a cheap alternative? I don't have a problem with a farm trying something either, I think its interesting when a farm takes a chance and brings in a stallion that makes people go ???? But Coolmore had so many nice GSW with spectacular pedigrees by War Front, you would of thought they could have found one that was a little more appealing to the Kentucky market. Even though commercial breeders generally hates turf runners.

I think the cheap alternative is particularly why they had him. He was still there when I visited Hill n Dale in August.They acknowledged that it was a big swing having him and that he didnt cover many mares, but they loved his pedigree and were hoping to bring something turfier to their roster. They did it on a bigger scale with Flintshire and while that didn't work, there are is a lot of money in turf racing so hopefully eventually there will be money in turf breeding. Or a decent turf horse becoming a good all purpose sire. I think the mindset is... you can't find the next El Prado unless you make some "????" purchases.

[BaroqueAgain1]

It is so telling about how short-sighted American breeders are about turf racing that the wonderful English Channel has passed without good sire sons all over the place. Since he wasn't valued enough, his best sons are geldings.

[Palace Malice]

It is so telling about how short-sighted American breeders are about turf racing that the wonderful English Channel has passed without good sire sons all over the place. Since he wasn't valued enough, his best sons are geldings.

Yup

I'm glad Bricks and Mortar went to Japan.

[Miss Woodford]

It is so telling about how short-sighted American breeders are about turf racing that the wonderful English Channel has passed without good sire sons all over the place. Since he wasn't valued enough, his best sons are geldings.

What's more, one of his better intact sons Channel Cat is at Calumet where he will get maybe 2 mares a year.

[CoronadosQuest]

It is so telling about how short-sighted American breeders are about turf racing that the wonderful English Channel has passed without good sire sons all over the place. Since he wasn't valued enough, his best sons are geldings.

MG1W Heart to Heart is standing at Crestwood, his first foals are 2yos this year. Hopefully people give him a chance but doubt it. He did run until he was 8 years old with 41 starts and $2 mil in earnings so at least he is sound!

His ad: https://www.crestwoodfarm.com/wp-conten ... -20-21.jpg

[Flanders]

It is so telling about how short-sighted American breeders are about turf racing that the wonderful English Channel has passed without good sire sons all over the place. Since he wasn't valued enough, his best sons are geldings.

MG1W Heart to Heart is standing at Crestwood, his first foals are 2yos this year. Hopefully people give him a chance but doubt it. He did run until he was 8 years old with 41 starts and $2 mil in earnings so at least he is sound!

His ad: https://www.crestwoodfarm.com/wp-conten ... -20-21.jpg

He has not been popular. I wouldn't imagine he'd get great 2yos and he hasn't so far. But maybe he'll get some nice runners as they get older. His first crop only had 37 foals and his crops have only gotten smaller since.

[Flanders]

With the yearling sales fast approaching, I thought it'd be fun to do this again. Time for the 2024 version:

First I'm going to say, I will not be using any Southern Hemisphere results in my thoughts as I don't think those results play into if a stallion is going to be used or sold in NA, I might use them as a reasoning for why a stallion would stay permanently in a country though. Not doing pensioning either, like Farish mentioned this might be Mineshaft's last season earlier in the year. I will not be adding any stallion that has a first crop that is 2 or younger, 2yo racing is still just getting started and its very rare that a stallion is sold before his foals race. IMO the 2nd crop stallions are looking very weak, any of them could leave, so they are all making the list. Do I think they'll all go? No. But there is only one with 2 GSWs(Audible) and none has sired a G1SW. I will make a note that they are 2nd crop.

Airdrie : They've stood some fantastic stallions in the past. With Brereton Jones passing away last year and them securing Mage after, are they going to become a player for other big name stallion prospects? They usually give their stallions time though but I feel I need to include them.

Preservationist (2nd crop sire, 1 GSW, doesn't have many foals though, only covered 16 mares last year. He does have Antiquarian in his first crop, so maybe that buys him time. His yearling sales were awful last year compared to his stud fee. 11k average for 10k stud fee)
Divisidero (2nd crop sire, no GSW, has very few foals, only covered 11 mares last year. from 16 starters, he has 2 SWs, which is a good rate. I just don't know if breeders will care because turf horse)

Calumet : Who knows what this place does, any of them could go randomly

Claiborne : Known for giving their stallions time, they have gotten rid of ones that just aren't working out before.

Catholic Boy (2nd crop sire, has 1 SW in Puerto Rico, only bred 24 mares last year, 2023 yearlings averaged their stud fee)
Demarchelier (2nd crop sire, has no SWs, I know they raised his stud fee for 2024 but...he only got 31 mares last year. He was getting a lot of 2yo winners last year it just hasn't really progressed past getting winners)
Lea (would be gone if he was anywhere else, most I can see is they decide to pension him, I don't really see them selling him and most likely keep him private)
Runhappy (if he wasn't owned by Mattress Mac, he'd be gone)
---. Funny thing is, Lea and Runhappy have almost identical %s. 4% SW, 72% starters, 53%winners(Lea), 47%winners(RH), 67.8k avg/starter(Lea), 69.9k(RH). 4 GSWs each, Lea's are all G3s, while RH has a G1, G2, and two G3s.

Coolmore : Not many here that I think, these 2 made my list last year and I haven't changed my opinion. They don't have to get rid of anyone, they definitely have room

Mendelssohn (only has 2 GSWs, his numbers bred hit an all time low of 114 last year(he lowest before that was 197), his 2yo average also dropped significantly from 119k(2023) to 78k(2024)
Mo Town (while he does have 5 GSWs, his earnings put him 11th cumulatively for 3rd crop sires, he stands for 5k, yes he got 142 mares last year, his only G2 winner didn't race past May of her 3yo year and was retired)

Darby Dan : Stand a lot of privately owned stallions, especially for Fipke. Not really known for getting rid of stallions early.

Flameaway (2nd crop sire, 1 GSW who hasn't raced since the BC as a 2yo. Being by Scat Daddy and that he did get a GSW with his first crop, I don't see him being sold. But if he goes anywhere I would say Chile because he has done decently there with 2 GSWing 2yos and 2 more Gsp)
Copper Bullet (2nd crop sire, no GSW, does have 2 SWs from 25 starters)
Leofric (2nd crop sire, his first crop was NY-breds, then he moved to Kentucky, has 2 SWs from 39 starters, only bred 27 mares last year, they did announce he was shuttling to Argentina wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't come back)

Darley:

Enticed (2nd crop sire, 1 GSW, 2 SWs)

Gainesway : only one from here who made my list last year as well

Tapwrit (3rd crop stallion that doesn't have a GSW)

Hill N Dale :

Kantharos (the bloom has fallen off the flower, he only bred 39 mares last year, his 2yo average went from 76k(2023) to 40k(2024). His yearling average in 2023 was 44k on a 30k stud fee. From his 2019-2021 crops he has gotten 1 G3SW. His 2 G1SWs were trained by Navarro and Servis, one of which is dead and the other is next)
World Of Trouble (2nd crop sire, only 1 SW in Puerto Rico, bred 26 mares last year)

Lane's End : Not usually one known to get rid of a lot of stallions, they got rid of at least 4 stallions last year so everyone is game

Catalina Cruiser (2nd crop sire, no GSWs, no SWs. What else to say?)
Daredevil (he better get good runners from his first crop back because his popularity plummeted immediately after this 2yo crop. It drops too much and TJK takes him back home)
The Factor (He went from being a decent stallion to not having sired a GSW since one in 2022(from his 2016 crop). Only bred 36 mares last year. Has 1 SW this year)
Tonalist (Besides Country Grammer he hasn't sired much, 3 GSWs from 5 crops(age 3+).)
Union Rags (feels weird putting him on here but he really fell out of popularity. Only covered 43 mares last year, stud fee all time low of 15k(was 30k last year and he stood for a number of years for 60k) I really don't think they'll sell him but those numbers put him here for me. his yearling average in 2023 and 2022 didn't cover the stud fee. 2023 : 29k average(30k fee), 2022: 55k average(60k fee)

Spendthrift : This one is hard . They have 3 choices : clean house, stop acquiring stallions, or get another stallion barn. We know they have numerous stallion prospects coming in 2025, more than we know about at this point. They typically bring in 3-5 stallions. Thing is they have a TON of young stallions whose first crop is 2yo or younger. So everyone with foals 3+ is making the list except stallions I don't see them ever parting with. Unless they have another stallion barn, which the farm did back in the 80s when they stood 40 stallions, they have to get rid of however many they are bringing in. We know National Treasure goes there, I think most expect Kingsbarns to be there, plus whoever else they've secured. I've heard they've looked at Seize The Grey and Dornoch, I'd assume Mystik Dan. Maybe Arabian Knight, Fierceness, who knows who else, everyone is fair game for Spendthrift. Do they go for White Abarrio even though they sold his sire to South Korea?

Coal Front (2nd crop sire, 3 SWs, no GSW, lowest stud fee of their 2nd crop sires, 40 mares bred last year)
Cross Traffic (5 GSWs, 2 G1 winners, would have been 3 if not for the incident last year with Maple Leaf Mel. bred 84 mares last year, he gets on the list over Goldencents cause they aren't selling their Kentucky Derby sire)
Jimmy Creed (6 GSWs, 1 G1 winner. He is pretty popular with breeders getting 113 mares last year. Is that going to be enough?)
Maximus Mischief (2nd crop sire, no GSWs, 5 SWs, can't imagine anyone that paid 25k to breed to him this year is happy)
Mitole (2nd crop sire, 1 G3SW(as a 2yo, finished 3rd in a G2 in March then disappeared), 5 SWs)
Omaha Beach (2nd crop sire, 1 G3SW(in January, disappeared in April), 6 SWs)
Temple City (I don't really think they'd get rid of this old guy cause they've kept him this long, maybe they pension him and send him elsewhere to make room)
Vino Rosso (2nd crop sire, no GSW, 4 SWs. He has gotten quite a few G1p but they just can't get a GSW)

Of their 2nd crop sires, cumulative earnings wise, there is little separating Mitole(5.1m), Omaha Beach(4.9m), Vino Rosso(4.65m), and Maximus Mischief(4.5m). Coal Front is down at 1.7m. So do they keep the 3 older stallions and part ways the other 5? This is my conundrum.

Three Chimneys : doesn't have many stallions but just to be fair I'll put one though I hate doing so

Funtastic (3rd crop sire, only has 32 starters, 2 SWs, including G1p Funtastic Again. breeders just don't use him but he did get 25 mares last year which is average for him)

Winstar : doesn't need to get rid of anyone because they are less 4 stallions from their 2023 roster (Yoshida to Japan; Improbable, Paynter and Speightstown died; plus Tourist was TBA for 2023 but moved before the season started)

Always Dreaming (making my list again from last year, 1 GSW, 4 SWs, got 7 mares last year, 2023 yearlings averaged 18.6k on a 17.5k stud fee)
Audible (2nd crop sire, 2 GSWs, 5 SWs, only here cause I said I'd put all the 2nd crop stallions. They aren't going to sell him)
Good Samaritan (making my list again from last year, 2 GSWs, 5 SWs, same thing I said last year, he is doing okay in Chile wouldn't be surprised if he stayed there)
Outwork (2 GSWs(they both happen to be G1), 12 SWs, only bred 30 mares last year. He is a 5th crop stallion so his SW number is going to be higher than most of the above)
Take Charge Indy (3 GSWs, his return crop is 3, has had 2 SWs since returning(one was GSp but hasn't raced/worked since March)

Edit to add: I didn't do Taylor Made because they don't have anyone that fits the criteria. They have Not This Time(who is a top stallion) and a bunch of stallions that have their first crops 2 or younger, including a handful of OXO stallions.

[Eohippus]

Dang, forgot Improbable died

[brunanas]

*squirms in excitement*, i was just waiting for someone to restart this thread. thanks Flanders for that and for sparing me of doing the sales/RMB research.

Airdrie
copy and paste what Flanders said.

Calumet
???????? who knows with these people. i have a theory they just flip a coin or roll a dice to decide who they're sending off to auction at year's end.

Claiborne
they don't usually sell stallions, so idk if there will be any moves this year. but...
— Catholic Boy is my main bet, i'm sad because i love him but unfortunately i don't think he is really cut out for the Kentucky market;
— Demarchelier (GB), i wouldn't be too surprised if he followed Mastery to Japan.
i agree that they might pension Lea. but it's mostly because i just don't see any market having interest in him at all. so selling just wouldn't be profitable.

Coolmore
— Mendelssohn, i think his pedigree can't save him anymore especially after Justify's crazy year last year officially making him the heir to Scat Daddy's throne. maybe Japan would appreciate him, i don't see him going to a regional market;
— Mo Town probably goes off to a regional market.

Darby Dan
idk with this one. like with Claiborne, i don't really see anyone moving, but if i have to pick one, it'd be Leofric. i don't think Copper Bullet is moving because i don't think he is doing bad considering the opportunities he got.

Darley
Enticed.

Gainesway
again i don't see them moving anyone. but if they do, it has to be Tapwrit.

Hill n' Dale
— Kantharos, i have a feeling he goes to Japan. but i also wouldn't be surprised if they try to have some more patience with him (even though his stats are only going downhill);
— if he was anywhere else World of Trouble would have gotten the boot a while ago. imho the only reason they've kept him this long was the whole "HE NEEDS TO PROVE HE IS MORE THAN THE DRUGS GIVEN TO HIM" situation. i don't see him standing in Kentucky another year.

Lane's End
copy and paste what Flanders said, i also have my doubts they'd sell Union Rags. i think they will eventually but he might be safe for another year or two.
i really doubt this but i don't know how safe City of Light is (at least longterm) only siring Fierceness. it's the same situation as Tonalist. only one good runner won't keep you in Kentucky forever.

Spendthrift
*sighs* since Flanders also mentioned this, my bets for their stallions next year are National Treasure (confirmed), Seize the Grey, Dornoch, Fierceness, Arabian Knight and probably some other random(s) trained by Pletcher or Baffert. i don't see them (or any Kentucky farm) getting White Abarrio unless his second half of the year is similar to his 2023 second half of the year. regarding moves:
— Coal Front, no way he doesn't move. when your books are that small... you just don't last at Scamshit;
— i'm split with Maximus Mischief, he was so hyped by them for this year with his first 2yos and that didn't work out and like Flanders said i doubt he is getting many mares with his crazy fee. but then idk if they'd sell such a hyped up stallion even if his numbers plummet...? especially when he's by Into Mischief and who knows how long that one will live. i'm still going to write him down as one of my main bets though just because i think he is still more likely to be sold than the rest.
i agree with the others Flanders mentioned but those 2 are the ones i'm more confident about.

Three Chimneys
unfortunately, Funtastic.

WinStar
— no way Always Dreaming gets another chance. no way. he'll be off to Turkey or SK before the end of the year;
— Good Samaritan probably won't return from Chile.
idk if they'd send Take Charge Indy back yet but i also wouldn't be surprised.

[Missbeholder]

I can't believe that Lane's End would EVER sell Union Rags! He is the last link that they have to Dixieland Band who was one of their four foundation sires in their start-up in the early 80's. If he ends up no longer commercially viable, I think they'll pension him right there on the grounds and let him live out his life where his sire and his grandsire lived out theirs.

I suppose that there's a possibility that, because of his Classic-winning history, they could donate him to Old Friends, but I really doubt that would ever happen. Grandpappy Dixieland Band says No, I don't think so!