Odds set on 'Pharoah' stud fee

Somnambulist · Sun Jun 14, 2015 8:22 pm

I'm mostly just sad a horse who clearly enjoys people is going to live in a 20x20 reality for the rest of his life. Or for at least the next 5 years.

Everyone loves sex, but come on, too much of anything is a bad thing.

CoronadosQuest · Sun Jun 14, 2015 8:22 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
CoronadosQuest wrote:
Horsebagger wrote:
She only has one that is racing outside of AP... and that is Xixixi, who is a 4yo. His sire, Maimonides, isn't exactly setting the world on fire with his offspring either. AP's other siblings are a yearling filly and a 2015 colt. Not exactly a good sample size. Seems she is 50/50 at producing TC winners
1 for 3 since you can't ignore her first foal who never made it to the races. Still a nice argument, if you want to make it that way and ignore the potential randomness factor of producing a TC winner. Her pedigree is pretty unfashionable, regardless, and she wasn't much horse on the racetrack in her brief career. I'll lean on those two facts myself.

Despite that, I'm sure every third foal will be a TC winner. Should we get the trophy engraved for Irish Pharoah already?

The jockey club doesn't have any 2010 foal for her in the registry. Here is her sale sheet

http://www.fasigtipton.com/TheNovemberSale/2014/Hip/105 click on Pedigree

Her first foal is Xixixi according to that.

Sorry that the invisible foal didn't make it to the track though! And what I am saying is that she is 50% on producing a nice horse. How do you know the yearling/foal won't be good on the track? And maybe Yankee Gentleman isn't exactly setting the world on fire as a broodmare sire but still.. I would be very surprised if you get AP for under 6 digits.

Insane Crazy · Sun Jun 14, 2015 9:53 pm

Somnambulist wrote:I'm mostly just sad a horse who clearly enjoys people is going to live in a 20x20 reality for the rest of his life. Or for at least the next 5 years.

Everyone loves sex, but come on, too much of anything is a bad thing.

He will at least have grooms who give him attention and will love on him if he's as chill and personable as he has appeared. A friend of mine who worked at Ashford said he'll have that at least. It does suck, though I hold out hope that they'll have to do something to get him out and around people considering he's...y'know, the TC winner.

Horsebagger · Sun Jun 14, 2015 10:58 pm

CoronadosQuest wrote:
Horsebagger wrote:
Horsebagger wrote:

1 for 3 since you can't ignore her first foal who never made it to the races. Still a nice argument, if you want to make it that way and ignore the potential randomness factor of producing a TC winner. Her pedigree is pretty unfashionable, regardless, and she wasn't much horse on the racetrack in her brief career. I'll lean on those two facts myself.

Despite that, I'm sure every third foal will be a TC winner. Should we get the trophy engraved for Irish Pharoah already?
The jockey club doesn't have any 2010 foal for her in the registry. Here is her sale sheet

http://www.fasigtipton.com/TheNovemberSale/2014/Hip/105 click on Pedigree

Her first foal is Xixixi according to that.

Sorry that the invisible foal didn't make it to the track though! And what I am saying is that she is 50% on producing a nice horse. How do you know the yearling/foal won't be good on the track? And maybe Yankee Gentleman isn't exactly setting the world on fire as a broodmare sire but still.. I would be very surprised if you get AP for under 6 digits.

You're right. She was bred to J Be K and didn't have a reported foal. My bad for suggesting she 'had' a foal.

But I never said he wouldn't be pricey, and I am sure the fee will be north of $100,000. I doubt anyone laying 3/5 odds that it will be higher than $175,000 isn't doing it blind. Someone knows. I said I wouldn't be choosing to breed to him for as steep a fee as they are likely to charge. It's not just Yankee Gentleman. The whole bottom half of his pedigree is unattractive, isn't it? But I wish you and anyone else luck spending big dollars for his female family. Because you're paying for his accomplishment of winning the triple crown, not his bloodlines.

CoronadosQuest · Sun Jun 14, 2015 10:59 pm

Won't be me spending that money but people definitely will.

Thu Jun 18, 2015 10:47 pm

I think it will be 75.000, up to 100k if he wins the Classic. I really don't think anyone would pay 150 or 200k, that fee would be absurd.

Kay16 · Fri Jun 26, 2015 3:56 pm

You'd be surprised how many are going to be willing to spend a good chunk to breed to the 1st TC winner in 37 years. Also, 200,000 doesn't even put a slight mark on half these breeders wallets.

I don't want to think about his stud career right now.

Admin · Fri Jun 26, 2015 4:23 pm

Kay16 wrote:You'd be surprised how many are going to be willing to spend a good chunk to breed to the 1st TC winner in 37 years. Also, 200,000 doesn't even put a slight mark on half these breeders wallets.

I don't want to think about his stud career right now.

You must know different breeders than I do.

Let's see, Tapit or American Pharoah..... tough choice.

TBird · Fri Jun 26, 2015 5:17 pm

Kay16 wrote:You'd be surprised how many are going to be willing to spend a good chunk to breed to the 1st TC winner in 37 years. Also, 200,000 doesn't even put a slight mark on half these breeders wallets.

I don't want to think about his stud career right now.

AP is the first TC winner in 37 years on the race track. In the breeding shed, he's still just another unproven stallion.

I'm with Admin. You must know different breeders than me too if you think 200k is an insignificant amount for breeders to pay for a horse whose abilities as a sire are entirely unknown.

dustino140 · Fri Jun 26, 2015 6:12 pm

Don't the odds that Betfair is offering pretty much give an indication as to what the number will be? I doubt they'd pick a small sliver and put it at 3/5 and offer much better prices on anything more or less unless they know something. I'd say it's a lock he starts exactly where they say he will.

Kay16 · Fri Jun 26, 2015 7:29 pm

TBird wrote:
Kay16 wrote:You'd be surprised how many are going to be willing to spend a good chunk to breed to the 1st TC winner in 37 years. Also, 200,000 doesn't even put a slight mark on half these breeders wallets.

I don't want to think about his stud career right now.
AP is the first TC winner in 37 years on the race track. In the breeding shed, he's still just another unproven stallion.

I'm with Admin. You must know different breeders than me too if you think 200k is an insignificant amount for breeders to pay for a horse whose abilities as a sire are entirely unknown.

I didn't say every breeder.

Somnambulist · Sat Jun 27, 2015 12:13 am

Hasn't the market proven that no one is gonna command this?

God, the AP colored glasses are so annoying it would have been better if he didn't win all three.

Insane Crazy · Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:19 am

Somnambulist wrote:Hasn't the market proven that no one is gonna command this?

God, the AP colored glasses are so annoying it would have been better if he didn't win all three.

You stop that.

Somnambulist · Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:56 am

I exaggerate heavily. I should know better than to talk that way online. In person I have the benefit of smirks and stuff.

As cool as it is that he won the TC, I'm not sure that changes the reality of an unproven stallion starting a lot and breeders flocking to him.

Admin · Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:18 am

dustino140 wrote:Don't the odds that Betfair is offering pretty much give an indication as to what the number will be? I doubt they'd pick a small sliver and put it at 3/5 and offer much better prices on anything more or less unless they know something. I'd say it's a lock he starts exactly where they say he will.

Want to make another bet?

I thought of how odd it was that they'd offer this bet -- then I wondered if there was a way I can get in on it.

I wouldn't say it's a lock, but instead illustrates a lack of understanding of American racing and its market, the same way we lack a real understanding the opposite way. They are comparing AP with Sea the Stars and Frankel, both of who have far superior pedigrees. In addition, both of those sires had smaller books. Also, racing and breeding in Europe more resembles the "sport of kings" than it does in America.

It was interesting to read the European experts put his stud fee so high, but then when they asked experts from America, they put the fee much lower. They should've listened to the Americans.

Insane Crazy · Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:54 am

Somnambulist wrote:I exaggerate heavily. I should know better than to talk that way online. In person I have the benefit of smirks and stuff.

As cool as it is that he won the TC, I'm not sure that changes the reality of an unproven stallion starting a lot and breeders flocking to him.

I assumed you were being facetious, but still. You tempt the racing gods.

I think if he continues to win races like he has so far, that will mean much more than the TC itself. $100k still seems possible to me, but maybe I'm still echoing back to the days of the breeding bubble. I agree with whoever said on another thread that they'd rather go to Pioneer than to an unproven AP, though.

BaroqueAgain1 · Sat Jun 27, 2015 2:45 pm

I think that was me.

If I were the owner of a band of blue-blooded broodmares, I'd sure be interested in the stallion who just sired the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years. The winner himself? Let's see how his offspring turn out, and maybe I'd pay the freight to breed to him in two or three years.

lurkey mclurker · Sat Jun 27, 2015 3:42 pm

I was a bit too young to follow stud careers back then... was Slew a hit right from the get-go, or did it take a few seasons for him to get some GSW/big name offspring? I do remember Alydar kicked Affirmed's butt in the shed but not if that was immediate...

It will be interesting to see what happens if/when PotN gets higher class mares.

Izvestia · Sat Jun 27, 2015 3:45 pm

First crop had champions Landaluce and Slew O Gold

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... -greatness

Flanders · Sat Jun 27, 2015 4:09 pm

lurkey mclurker wrote:I was a bit too young to follow stud careers back then... was Slew a hit right from the get-go, or did it take a few seasons for him to get some GSW/big name offspring? I do remember Alydar kicked Affirmed's butt in the shed but not if that was immediate...

It will be interesting to see what happens if/when PotN gets higher class mares.

Seattle Slew was the Leading Freshman Sire of 1982. Alydar and Affirmed were both good stallions, though Alydar got more high profile winners.

Most of the Triple Crown winners were, at the very least, decent stallions(stallions followed by % Stakes winners):
Sir Barton - 3%
Gallant Fox - 6%
Omaha - 3%
War Admiral - 11%
Whirlaway - 10%
Count Fleet - 9%
Assault - no TB foals
Citation - 4%
Secretariat - 8%
Seattle Slew - 10%
Affirmed - 9% (Alydar - 11%)