The fields are finalized and the posts are drawn, so who do you like? Who's your longshot, your best bet, your most baffling morning line favorite? How many races do you think Japan will win? For that matter, how many races do you think America will win? This might be the most international BC I can recall, and perhaps it will be one of the most surprising as well.
Figured we didn't want to crowd the news threads, so this is a space for picks and discussion. Looking forward to reading your opinions on these challenging races!
The Breeders' Cup Picks and Analysis Thread
-
Tessablue
- Posts: 6542
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
The Juvenile Turf Sprint
So... this is one of those races that appears to be both very easy and quite difficult to evaluate. The easy part: Ecoro Sieg looks like a worthy morning-line favorite, and might be five lengths better than the rest of these. Watching his Japanese races, it's clear why he's attracted so much attention: he's fast. He's REALLY fast. I don't care so much about final times because track biases can be misleading, but he passes the eye test in every way. In his last race, which looked like a Gallop Racer event, he and another pace horse blasted off ten lengths from the rest of field and set some ridiculous fractions. That horse faded late; Ecoro Sieg won with his ears pricked. Speed is everything in these turf sprints, and he looks to have more than anyone. Crucially, he's also actually run around a turn before, which brings me to...
...the hard part. My general rule of thumb in turf sprints is to ignore the Europeans; I don't always do it, and I've been burned in the past, but overall it's worked out pretty well. I just don't think these huge competitive Breeders' Cup fields aren’t the place to learn how to run through a turn, and American sprint speed is king regardless of what surface you're on. But here... the Americans just maybe aren't that good? Governor Sam would seem to lead them, as a very consistent sort who set a blazing pace last out and still hung on for the win. He won't mind the slight cutback at all, and he has the speed to get position early. But his figures just aren't eye-popping at all, and Ecoror Sieg will probably have the field by the throat going into the turn, and I don't know if this guy can withstand that sort of speed duel. I'll still bet him because I think he's the best of our bunch, and because my husband's name is Sam and I'm rather fond of him
The only other American I'm particularly interested in is Out on Bail, who has some late foot, will appreciate a hot pace, and could just sneak around on the rail while everyone else jostles for position.
Now, what about the many many Euros in this field? They make up four of the top five ML favorites, surely there's some spoilers in here, right? Well... I would not call myself an expert on European form, and often struggle to evaluate it in these Breeders' Cup horses. To my eye, Whistlejacket is a very classy horse who physically looks like a miler and may find this 5f trip to be too sharp. The others just don't stand out to me as special, but I'll go with Aesterius as the best of them, because he has some speed, a good draw, a lot of experience at this 5f distance, and he's actually turned left once during a race. Don't take my word for it, though- my cheat code for these horses is to check on the overseas ante-post betting, which always over-favors European horses but can offer an interesting perspective from bettors who know the horses better than I do. Sure enough, Ecoro Sieg is favored overseas, with the top Europeans all clustered together around 5-1. Governor Sam's odds are actually lower than his ML, and this all tells me that there aren't any superstars among this European contingent. I think there could be a superstar in this field, though, and I'm excited to see what he can do.
Ecoro Sieg
(daylight)
Governor Sam/ Aesterius/ Big Mojo
EDIT: With Out on Bail out, I will use Big Mojo underneath instead. Struggling to find much value in this one, but it is what it is!
So... this is one of those races that appears to be both very easy and quite difficult to evaluate. The easy part: Ecoro Sieg looks like a worthy morning-line favorite, and might be five lengths better than the rest of these. Watching his Japanese races, it's clear why he's attracted so much attention: he's fast. He's REALLY fast. I don't care so much about final times because track biases can be misleading, but he passes the eye test in every way. In his last race, which looked like a Gallop Racer event, he and another pace horse blasted off ten lengths from the rest of field and set some ridiculous fractions. That horse faded late; Ecoro Sieg won with his ears pricked. Speed is everything in these turf sprints, and he looks to have more than anyone. Crucially, he's also actually run around a turn before, which brings me to...
...the hard part. My general rule of thumb in turf sprints is to ignore the Europeans; I don't always do it, and I've been burned in the past, but overall it's worked out pretty well. I just don't think these huge competitive Breeders' Cup fields aren’t the place to learn how to run through a turn, and American sprint speed is king regardless of what surface you're on. But here... the Americans just maybe aren't that good? Governor Sam would seem to lead them, as a very consistent sort who set a blazing pace last out and still hung on for the win. He won't mind the slight cutback at all, and he has the speed to get position early. But his figures just aren't eye-popping at all, and Ecoror Sieg will probably have the field by the throat going into the turn, and I don't know if this guy can withstand that sort of speed duel. I'll still bet him because I think he's the best of our bunch, and because my husband's name is Sam and I'm rather fond of him
The only other American I'm particularly interested in is Out on Bail, who has some late foot, will appreciate a hot pace, and could just sneak around on the rail while everyone else jostles for position. Now, what about the many many Euros in this field? They make up four of the top five ML favorites, surely there's some spoilers in here, right? Well... I would not call myself an expert on European form, and often struggle to evaluate it in these Breeders' Cup horses. To my eye, Whistlejacket is a very classy horse who physically looks like a miler and may find this 5f trip to be too sharp. The others just don't stand out to me as special, but I'll go with Aesterius as the best of them, because he has some speed, a good draw, a lot of experience at this 5f distance, and he's actually turned left once during a race. Don't take my word for it, though- my cheat code for these horses is to check on the overseas ante-post betting, which always over-favors European horses but can offer an interesting perspective from bettors who know the horses better than I do. Sure enough, Ecoro Sieg is favored overseas, with the top Europeans all clustered together around 5-1. Governor Sam's odds are actually lower than his ML, and this all tells me that there aren't any superstars among this European contingent. I think there could be a superstar in this field, though, and I'm excited to see what he can do.
Ecoro Sieg
(daylight)
Governor Sam/ Aesterius/ Big Mojo
EDIT: With Out on Bail out, I will use Big Mojo underneath instead. Struggling to find much value in this one, but it is what it is!
Last edited by Tessablue on Tue Oct 29, 2024 10:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
-
Tessablue
- Posts: 6542
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
The Juvenile Fillies
This race is... oddly reminiscent of the one preceding it. An evenly matched field looks to have few superstars, unless the Japanese horse lives up to their reputation. Watching her races, it's hard not to think that American Bikini has some star quality to her. She's a big lovely daughter of American Pharoah with an easy stride and some actual genuine speed. Her past two races were utterly facile, and one of the colts she beat in her last start has come over to run in the Juvenile. She just seems to have that intangible It Factor that the other fillies in this race seem to lack, and although I'm a little worried about what happens if she doesn't make the lead (she pulled a bit in her first start rating off of horses), it wouldn't shock me if she just turns out to be better than them.
I definitely don't think it's a sure thing, however. There are some nice opponents in here, including Scottish Lassie, whose last race on figures was better than everyone else by a mile. If she runs back to that race she hits the board or wins here, but... will she? I just don't know what to think about a filly who improved that much in her second start. The connections must have known she had some quality to run her there after a losing debut, but were the conditions just perfect that day, or is she really that good? Will she thrive going two turns? I don't know, and because of that, I can't trust her nor can I throw her out. Other fillies of note include Immersive, who hasn't done anything wrong but also hasn't blown anyone's doors off, and Non Compliant, whom I rather like in here. She jumped from 6 to 8.5f in her second start, got hung extremely wide around the first turn, and still won pretty easily with a figure that puts her on the same level as Immersive. I think she's underexposed relative to that opponent, and while she didn't beat much in that start, she's got every right to move forward from it.
The one filly I actually really like at a price is Quickick. She doesn't have much early foot, which puts her at a disadvantage on this track, but she beat Scottish Lassie in that one's debut and ran a sneaky-good race at Keeneland last time. She was shuffled back at the start and had to close against a very speed-biased track, and although she couldn't quite catch Immersive (while remaining on her left lead in the stretch), I can totally see her sneaking onto the board at a decent price in this race.
But ultimately, this is another if:then race. If American Bikini is who she looks like she might be, then she wins for fun. If she doesn't, then I think there will be a scrum of decent fillies battling together to the finish. I'm not finding them particularly easy to separate out, so I'll go with the one who offers the most value.
American Bikini/ Quickick
Scottish Lassie/ Immersive
EDIT: with Non Compliant out, I will add the perfectly decent Immersive into her spot as an underneath option.
This race is... oddly reminiscent of the one preceding it. An evenly matched field looks to have few superstars, unless the Japanese horse lives up to their reputation. Watching her races, it's hard not to think that American Bikini has some star quality to her. She's a big lovely daughter of American Pharoah with an easy stride and some actual genuine speed. Her past two races were utterly facile, and one of the colts she beat in her last start has come over to run in the Juvenile. She just seems to have that intangible It Factor that the other fillies in this race seem to lack, and although I'm a little worried about what happens if she doesn't make the lead (she pulled a bit in her first start rating off of horses), it wouldn't shock me if she just turns out to be better than them.
I definitely don't think it's a sure thing, however. There are some nice opponents in here, including Scottish Lassie, whose last race on figures was better than everyone else by a mile. If she runs back to that race she hits the board or wins here, but... will she? I just don't know what to think about a filly who improved that much in her second start. The connections must have known she had some quality to run her there after a losing debut, but were the conditions just perfect that day, or is she really that good? Will she thrive going two turns? I don't know, and because of that, I can't trust her nor can I throw her out. Other fillies of note include Immersive, who hasn't done anything wrong but also hasn't blown anyone's doors off, and Non Compliant, whom I rather like in here. She jumped from 6 to 8.5f in her second start, got hung extremely wide around the first turn, and still won pretty easily with a figure that puts her on the same level as Immersive. I think she's underexposed relative to that opponent, and while she didn't beat much in that start, she's got every right to move forward from it.
The one filly I actually really like at a price is Quickick. She doesn't have much early foot, which puts her at a disadvantage on this track, but she beat Scottish Lassie in that one's debut and ran a sneaky-good race at Keeneland last time. She was shuffled back at the start and had to close against a very speed-biased track, and although she couldn't quite catch Immersive (while remaining on her left lead in the stretch), I can totally see her sneaking onto the board at a decent price in this race.
But ultimately, this is another if:then race. If American Bikini is who she looks like she might be, then she wins for fun. If she doesn't, then I think there will be a scrum of decent fillies battling together to the finish. I'm not finding them particularly easy to separate out, so I'll go with the one who offers the most value.
American Bikini/ Quickick
Scottish Lassie/ Immersive
EDIT: with Non Compliant out, I will add the perfectly decent Immersive into her spot as an underneath option.
Last edited by Tessablue on Tue Oct 29, 2024 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
-
Diver52
- Posts: 3403
- Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:44 pm
- Location: Redlands, CA
For reasons I don't understand, I've been humming "Comin' thru the Rye" for days. It has the viewpoint of a Scottish laddie, but a Scottish lassie might be worth a flyer for me.
And I'm pretty sure what the laddie and his lassies got up to in the rye fields!
And I'm pretty sure what the laddie and his lassies got up to in the rye fields!
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
-
Tessablue
- Posts: 6542
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
They sure are! And they won't be the last...
Two of my underneath picks are out, so I'll supplemental Out on Bail with a TBD for now, whereas I'll use Immersive in place of Non Compliant.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
This race simply starts and ends with Lake Victoria. The Euros don't have a historically great record in this particular event, but they may have never brought over a filly of this quality. She's the current ante-post favorite for the Guineas, the overwhelming favorite for this race in overseas betting, her last start was simply monstrous... yes, she's stretching out a bit here and going around a turn for the first time, but she'll get the shortest way around and she just looks so much better than the rest of them here and everything about her suggests that the 8f will only improve her.
Stranger things have happened, though, so what happens if she fails to handle the turns or gets pinned inside for too long? Well... I'm not exactly going out on a limb by looking towards Thought Process, the clear second-choice on the ML (and in the overseas betting). She has looked super in her prior turf starts, and although she has been competing against world-builders, she looks a cut above the rest of the Americans and boasts a handy running style along with a beautiful smooth stride. She seems by far to be the most likely winner besides the favorite, and it wouldn't shock me to see the two of them well-clear of the field. But all this chalk feels a bit grimy, so how about some big longshots to spice up the verticals? May Day Ready was repeatedly interfered with throughout her last start, still came running and has a right to improve off of it. And Abientot has benefited from closing into some quick paces, but she's likely in this race instead of the Turf Sprint for a reason, and Casse is no stranger to wild improbable turf results. Finally, Fiery Lucy is a useful filly who has nearly showed equal to fellow contestant Heavens Gate on two occasions, but presently sits at almost 3x that one's morning line. Why not? I'll likely use these three improbable fillies in some tris and supers beneath the top two.
Lake Victoria
Thought Process
May Day Ready/ Abientot/ Fiery Lucy
-
Tessablue
- Posts: 6542
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
The Juvenile
What a treat to have a Juvenile this strong! I'm a huge fan of 2yo racing and love seeing so many strong colts lined up against each other. Adding to the intrigue is the divergent stories of East Avenue, a colt with speed who drew the rail, and Chance McPatrick, a closer drawn all the way wide. This field is strong enough that I really had to approach it backwards, cutting the field down to a handful of main contenders. I'm tossing the California contingent because I don't think they're very strong this year; Citizen Bull's last start was perfectly fine, but Baffert has admitted that he's a need-the-lead type and he's just not going to get his best trip in here. The two longshots wouldn't have much to offer, and I'm just... not really convinced by Jonathan's Way. His first start was tremendously impressive, but nobody from that race has gone on to do much, and I would've like to have seen something a little more special from his last start. His pedigree suggests that two turns is not necessarily his wheelhouse, and although he'd be a worthy favorite in an off year, he has some imposing competition in this edition.
Which brings us to the two favorites, and two other interesting horses. Ferocious is a physical freak with all the talent in the world, but at this juncture he appears to be more heart than brain. He can't be discounted but nor can he be counted on, and I'm most comfortable using him underneath here. This brings us to, no surprise, the Big Two: East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick. The only thing they have in common is how remarkably impressive both of them have been; yes, East Avenue had had a couple of easy trips and caught a speed-favoring racetrack last time around, but just look at him. He has a beautiful rocking chair stride and hasn't taken a deep breath so far, and his pedigree suggests the sky's the limit. Chancer McPatrick, meanwhile, will not catch anyone's eye in the paddock but is all class on the racetrack. He has one of the best closing kicks of any 2yo I can think of, and the crazy thing is that he's been closing into fairly moderate paces so far. What happens when he gets a quick one? This race would figure to shape up on the faster end, but part of me wonders if East Avenue will just get clear of them early and take it from there, and Del Mar is historically a speed-favoring racetrack. I think Chancer is awesome and will be a force on the Triple Crown trail next year, but in a match race, the horse with speed always wins.
Now, the last horse in the field is another member of the Japanese contingent, of which I've already picked two members. Is Shin Believe their equal? Maybe... but he's also up against some stronger competition than the others, and he has a bit less to go on. Shin Believe seemingly lived up to his 800k pricetag in his first and only start, making 9f look facile with a handy and professional victory. He appears to have a lot of maturity for a young horse to go along with his long, long, A P Indy-style stride. My hesitations, aside from his inexperience, are twofold: nothing much seems to have come out of that race, and Mike Welsch didn't love his workout this morning. Otherwise, I think he's a solid and interesting price horse who could surprise people, and I suspect he has a bright future regardless of where he finishes.
East Avenue/ Chancer McPatrick
Ferocious/ Shin Believe
(I feel like a monster choosing all these favorites, but as my grandfather used to say, you can't win if you don't bet the winner)
What a treat to have a Juvenile this strong! I'm a huge fan of 2yo racing and love seeing so many strong colts lined up against each other. Adding to the intrigue is the divergent stories of East Avenue, a colt with speed who drew the rail, and Chance McPatrick, a closer drawn all the way wide. This field is strong enough that I really had to approach it backwards, cutting the field down to a handful of main contenders. I'm tossing the California contingent because I don't think they're very strong this year; Citizen Bull's last start was perfectly fine, but Baffert has admitted that he's a need-the-lead type and he's just not going to get his best trip in here. The two longshots wouldn't have much to offer, and I'm just... not really convinced by Jonathan's Way. His first start was tremendously impressive, but nobody from that race has gone on to do much, and I would've like to have seen something a little more special from his last start. His pedigree suggests that two turns is not necessarily his wheelhouse, and although he'd be a worthy favorite in an off year, he has some imposing competition in this edition.
Which brings us to the two favorites, and two other interesting horses. Ferocious is a physical freak with all the talent in the world, but at this juncture he appears to be more heart than brain. He can't be discounted but nor can he be counted on, and I'm most comfortable using him underneath here. This brings us to, no surprise, the Big Two: East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick. The only thing they have in common is how remarkably impressive both of them have been; yes, East Avenue had had a couple of easy trips and caught a speed-favoring racetrack last time around, but just look at him. He has a beautiful rocking chair stride and hasn't taken a deep breath so far, and his pedigree suggests the sky's the limit. Chancer McPatrick, meanwhile, will not catch anyone's eye in the paddock but is all class on the racetrack. He has one of the best closing kicks of any 2yo I can think of, and the crazy thing is that he's been closing into fairly moderate paces so far. What happens when he gets a quick one? This race would figure to shape up on the faster end, but part of me wonders if East Avenue will just get clear of them early and take it from there, and Del Mar is historically a speed-favoring racetrack. I think Chancer is awesome and will be a force on the Triple Crown trail next year, but in a match race, the horse with speed always wins.
Now, the last horse in the field is another member of the Japanese contingent, of which I've already picked two members. Is Shin Believe their equal? Maybe... but he's also up against some stronger competition than the others, and he has a bit less to go on. Shin Believe seemingly lived up to his 800k pricetag in his first and only start, making 9f look facile with a handy and professional victory. He appears to have a lot of maturity for a young horse to go along with his long, long, A P Indy-style stride. My hesitations, aside from his inexperience, are twofold: nothing much seems to have come out of that race, and Mike Welsch didn't love his workout this morning. Otherwise, I think he's a solid and interesting price horse who could surprise people, and I suspect he has a bright future regardless of where he finishes.
East Avenue/ Chancer McPatrick
Ferocious/ Shin Believe
(I feel like a monster choosing all these favorites, but as my grandfather used to say, you can't win if you don't bet the winner)
-
Raise A Native
- Posts: 16
- Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2024 11:50 am
Crashing your thread, Tessablue.
Juvenile Fillies
La Cara and Nooni are the two to bet here, I think. They both seem to enjoy the 1 1/16th mile races. Immersive is also a good choice but I don't like Manny Franco too much and fear his riding may cost her the win. Although he has ridden her near flawlessly so far in her career. Scottish Lassie was very impressive in the Frizette and if she carries that form into the Breeders Cup she can be a big threat too. A very talented field of two year old ladies this year!
Juvenile
East Avenue is the horse to beat in this race. Impressive in the Futurity and looks nothing short of magnificient when you see him working at Del Mar. I hope he wins, he has a nice looking pedigree and is quite the specimen of a horse too. He's familiar with the distance. I feel like Chancer McPatrick and Jonathan's Way will lock into a speed duel early on, and be too tired to give anything in the home stretch.
F&M Sprint
Society and Vahva. They both have 14 starts and are familiar with the distance. I think Scylla is also cool - a full sibling to Tacitus and Batten Down, out of Close Hatches. That pedigree screams talent and has also shown it numerous times. Fun fact, Vahva means strong in my language (Finnish!)
Distaff
This was probably going to be the most exciting race of the weekend - Thorpedo Anna vs Idiomatic, but what can you do? Idiomatic is out with a knee injury and everyone seems to be rooting for Anna. However, I think Raging Sea is the one to beat in this race. The Curlin girls have been very successful. I'm also rooting for the Japanese Awesome Result. She has a nice resume going into this race and I think even with Idiomatic out, it's gonna be a very interesting race!
Classic
City of Troy is the talk of the town but has not impressed me with his appearances at Del Mar. He's never ran on dirt before so it's hard to say if it's gonna be good or bad for him.
Forever Young pulled the first post and if he overcomes that he may avenge his third in the Derby earlier this year.
Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesoro are also good bets here. Ushba Tesoro is hopefully unaffected by his incident the other morning and will give us a thrilling race between many different horses. Highland Falls could also provide a nice challenge to the race.
Sprint
Tbh, I have no idea about the sprint entries this year.. Pretend I pick a good horse here.
Dirt Mile
The love I have for Arrogate hopes he will get a Breeders Cup winner in Seize The Grey. Muth having ML odds of 9-2 seems a bit too generous.. He's a good horse, but he hasn't beat a ton of competition yet. 6th last time out. Also hoping for Skippylongstocking to run a good race! Post Time is very cute and will be thrown into my mix.
Safe trips to all!
If you notice that I have nothing to say about the turf races, it's because I have never really been interested in turf racing.
Juvenile Fillies
La Cara and Nooni are the two to bet here, I think. They both seem to enjoy the 1 1/16th mile races. Immersive is also a good choice but I don't like Manny Franco too much and fear his riding may cost her the win. Although he has ridden her near flawlessly so far in her career. Scottish Lassie was very impressive in the Frizette and if she carries that form into the Breeders Cup she can be a big threat too. A very talented field of two year old ladies this year!
Juvenile
East Avenue is the horse to beat in this race. Impressive in the Futurity and looks nothing short of magnificient when you see him working at Del Mar. I hope he wins, he has a nice looking pedigree and is quite the specimen of a horse too. He's familiar with the distance. I feel like Chancer McPatrick and Jonathan's Way will lock into a speed duel early on, and be too tired to give anything in the home stretch.
F&M Sprint
Society and Vahva. They both have 14 starts and are familiar with the distance. I think Scylla is also cool - a full sibling to Tacitus and Batten Down, out of Close Hatches. That pedigree screams talent and has also shown it numerous times. Fun fact, Vahva means strong in my language (Finnish!)
Distaff
This was probably going to be the most exciting race of the weekend - Thorpedo Anna vs Idiomatic, but what can you do? Idiomatic is out with a knee injury and everyone seems to be rooting for Anna. However, I think Raging Sea is the one to beat in this race. The Curlin girls have been very successful. I'm also rooting for the Japanese Awesome Result. She has a nice resume going into this race and I think even with Idiomatic out, it's gonna be a very interesting race!
Classic
City of Troy is the talk of the town but has not impressed me with his appearances at Del Mar. He's never ran on dirt before so it's hard to say if it's gonna be good or bad for him.
Forever Young pulled the first post and if he overcomes that he may avenge his third in the Derby earlier this year.
Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesoro are also good bets here. Ushba Tesoro is hopefully unaffected by his incident the other morning and will give us a thrilling race between many different horses. Highland Falls could also provide a nice challenge to the race.
Sprint
Tbh, I have no idea about the sprint entries this year.. Pretend I pick a good horse here.
Dirt Mile
The love I have for Arrogate hopes he will get a Breeders Cup winner in Seize The Grey. Muth having ML odds of 9-2 seems a bit too generous.. He's a good horse, but he hasn't beat a ton of competition yet. 6th last time out. Also hoping for Skippylongstocking to run a good race! Post Time is very cute and will be thrown into my mix.
Safe trips to all!
If you notice that I have nothing to say about the turf races, it's because I have never really been interested in turf racing.
There is a rumor that Native Dancer’s ghost haunts Churchill Downs, fitting considering that it was the only place he lost a race.
-
Tessablue
- Posts: 6542
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
Not crashing at all! I want it to be everyone's thread, not just my ramblings!
That being said, here are some more ramblings.
The Juvenile Turf
The chalk stops here! Although, there really... isn't any chalk in this race? The ML favorite is a very tepid ~6-1 second choice overseas, and the horse being bet over him (at 5-1) is the horse who beat him last out. I don't really like the horses from the Summer Stakes; the figure was good, but I think Woodbine often produces inflated turf figures, the first two finishers are pretty small potatoes in the European racing world, and I just wasn't wowed by the way any of those three horses ran. Granted, I'm not super wowed by anyone in here. It's an evenly matched field with a bunch of decent Euros marooned out wide and perhaps the most interesting horse, Satono Carnval, drawn on the rail. I've liked the Japanese horses in three other Friday races, so will the streak continue in this race?
...yeah, it will. I like him, I like the turn of foot he showed in his first start, I like the rail draw, and I think he'll enjoy the 8f distance. His last win was a bit workmanlike but came at what I think will be too short a distance for him, and I think he'll be overlooked a bit here in favor of the Europeans. Among those horses, the one I like best is actually Seagulls Eleven. Putting aside his fabulous name, I think he's a horse who wants the firm turf of Del Mar and has not been able to quite show his best yet. He was knocked of his stride late a few starts back, draws better than most of his compatriots, and attracts Luis Saez, whom I think is a great choice for a horse with a bit of speed. I'll happily take this guy at a relatively generous price.
Stateside, I can't overlook Mentee, who is kind of a classic sucker bet but also a sentimental pick in this race. He's a cool little mini-Fierceness who ran pretty well in his turf debut and surely won't mind the added distance. And, for a bomb, why not Minaret Station? He was 38-1 in the Bourbon for pretty good reason, but showed some genuine turn of foot while closing into a pace that was quick but fair. The pace horses all held together and he was the only one to make up major ground in the stretch. Probably not fast enough, but he could hit those odds again in here, and in a field this bereft of superstars, why not take a shot at some prices?
Seagulls Eleven/ Satono Carnaval/ Aomori City/ Mentee
EDIT: The racing gods have spared me the debasement of losing money on Minaret Station. In deference to their mercy, I will replace him with Aormori City, the Appleby whom everyone seems to like more than the other Appleby.
And that's a wrap for Friday! I'm taking four Japanese contenders seriously in those races. How does everyone else feel about them? Is four too many, or am I leaving anyone out?
Last edited by Tessablue on Wed Oct 30, 2024 6:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
-
Tessablue
- Posts: 6542
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
The Filly and Mare Sprint
Man, I just don't... trust anyone in this race? I know you're supposed to bet Society here, because she looks like the controlling speed and was very good last out. But Society is not a mare I trust easily, because she sometimes just doesn't quite show up, and I think she might get some pace pressure early even if the pace seems a bit lacking on paper. I can't toss her, but I don't love her. Meanwhile, I love Ways and Means from a sentimental perspective, but I think 5-2 is bad value on a 3yo making a huge step up against some nice mares, and I don't particularly trust her either. Vahva might just be a little past her peak, while Zeitlos is a mare I would like quite a bit if her morning line were anywhere north of its 6-1. She managed to close into a moderate pace on that speed-favoring track last out, and she's 12-1 abroad right now, so I'll just cross my fingers she ends up closer to that number than her ML.
Lastly... why not Soul of an Angel? I mean, I know why not- she's a closer on a speed-favoring racetrack in a relatively paceless race. But she's also a filly who wants one turn and has, checks note, beaten Randomized and run Idiomatic to a head this year. Is she better than those mares? Absolutely not! Not even close! But she's a mare who makes the best of favorable circumstances and will appreciate the distance, and how terrible would it feel to get beaten by a 15-1 shot who almost beat Idiomatic this year?
Overall, this is just not a race I'm super excited to bet, and I could make an easy case for Vahva or even Scylla as well. I'll probably wait until the last minute to lock this one in. For now, focusing on potential value, I'll say:
Ways and Means/ Zeitlos/ Soul of an Angel
The Turf Sprint
I don't think I've ever sighed in relief upon getting to the Turf Sprint, but here it is, a race that I have no desire to get fancy with: it's all about Cogburn. He has been unbelievable this year, could very well be the fastest American turf sprinter we've ever seen, and is in fact so good that he even ran exactly the same at Kentucky Downs as he does everywhere else. His Jaipur was one of the fastest turf races ever, he can lead, he can stalk, 5f, 6f, doesn't matter, his biggest competitor has never run around a turn and drew the outside post, it's all coming up Cogburn and I have absolutely zero desire to try and beat him.
Much more interesting is the battle underneath. I'm tossing Bradsell because of the post; maybe that's unfair, but Europeans don't tend to run well in this race regardless of post position. I'll make an exception for Star of Mystery, though, who was excellent in her first two American starts this year and very very good in her third. She's fast and consistent and I would be very surprised if she runs poorly in this race. Less reliable but just as intriguing is Ag Bullet, who is cutting way back in distance but probably belongs here instead of the Mile. She has some real early step, and while Cogburn might break her heart, she might just have the class and foundation to keep going late.
Finally, shout out to old friends Arzak, Motorious, and Big Invasion, who just keep showing up year after year in these turf sprints. I think one of them is likely to do something in this race; Big Invasion loves 5f, while Arzak picks up Joel. I can't decide between them at the moment, so this will be another game-time decision.
Cogburn
Star of Mystery
Ag Bullet/ an old friend (Big Invasion?)
The Distaff
Man... what a disappointment. What looked like a fabulous race all year has now produced a field that is, frankly, just not championship-worthy. With the defection of Idiomatic, Thorpedo absolutely towers over this field from both a pace and class perspective. I wanted to try and beat her, because her last was not her best and I think the lemon may have been squeezed a bit dry this year, but who in this field could beat her? I don't really believe in Raging Sea, who aside from her pace-aided signature win is not particularly outstanding, and I'm not convinced by Awesome Result either. Shocking, right, that I'm not all over a Japanese contender? But I watched quite a few of her races and still had a hard time evaluating her- she has this measured plodding stride that makes it difficult to judge how fast she's going, and I can't tell how much early foot she actually has. Her last race was great, her previous two were okay, and although she's cutting back in distance here I think that might not actually help her. I'll still use her underneath, because who else am I going to use? But I'll reach for some value with Candied, who might wake up a bit with blinkers on, and Honor D Lady, whose best race makes her somewhat competitive here... with every runner not named Thorpedo Anna.
Thorpedo Anna
Awesome Result/ Honor D Lady/ Candied/ probably some crazy longshot I'm overlooking who will blow the toteboard up
Man, I just don't... trust anyone in this race? I know you're supposed to bet Society here, because she looks like the controlling speed and was very good last out. But Society is not a mare I trust easily, because she sometimes just doesn't quite show up, and I think she might get some pace pressure early even if the pace seems a bit lacking on paper. I can't toss her, but I don't love her. Meanwhile, I love Ways and Means from a sentimental perspective, but I think 5-2 is bad value on a 3yo making a huge step up against some nice mares, and I don't particularly trust her either. Vahva might just be a little past her peak, while Zeitlos is a mare I would like quite a bit if her morning line were anywhere north of its 6-1. She managed to close into a moderate pace on that speed-favoring track last out, and she's 12-1 abroad right now, so I'll just cross my fingers she ends up closer to that number than her ML.
Lastly... why not Soul of an Angel? I mean, I know why not- she's a closer on a speed-favoring racetrack in a relatively paceless race. But she's also a filly who wants one turn and has, checks note, beaten Randomized and run Idiomatic to a head this year. Is she better than those mares? Absolutely not! Not even close! But she's a mare who makes the best of favorable circumstances and will appreciate the distance, and how terrible would it feel to get beaten by a 15-1 shot who almost beat Idiomatic this year?
Overall, this is just not a race I'm super excited to bet, and I could make an easy case for Vahva or even Scylla as well. I'll probably wait until the last minute to lock this one in. For now, focusing on potential value, I'll say:
Ways and Means/ Zeitlos/ Soul of an Angel
The Turf Sprint
I don't think I've ever sighed in relief upon getting to the Turf Sprint, but here it is, a race that I have no desire to get fancy with: it's all about Cogburn. He has been unbelievable this year, could very well be the fastest American turf sprinter we've ever seen, and is in fact so good that he even ran exactly the same at Kentucky Downs as he does everywhere else. His Jaipur was one of the fastest turf races ever, he can lead, he can stalk, 5f, 6f, doesn't matter, his biggest competitor has never run around a turn and drew the outside post, it's all coming up Cogburn and I have absolutely zero desire to try and beat him.
Much more interesting is the battle underneath. I'm tossing Bradsell because of the post; maybe that's unfair, but Europeans don't tend to run well in this race regardless of post position. I'll make an exception for Star of Mystery, though, who was excellent in her first two American starts this year and very very good in her third. She's fast and consistent and I would be very surprised if she runs poorly in this race. Less reliable but just as intriguing is Ag Bullet, who is cutting way back in distance but probably belongs here instead of the Mile. She has some real early step, and while Cogburn might break her heart, she might just have the class and foundation to keep going late.
Finally, shout out to old friends Arzak, Motorious, and Big Invasion, who just keep showing up year after year in these turf sprints. I think one of them is likely to do something in this race; Big Invasion loves 5f, while Arzak picks up Joel. I can't decide between them at the moment, so this will be another game-time decision.
Cogburn
Star of Mystery
Ag Bullet/ an old friend (Big Invasion?)
The Distaff
Man... what a disappointment. What looked like a fabulous race all year has now produced a field that is, frankly, just not championship-worthy. With the defection of Idiomatic, Thorpedo absolutely towers over this field from both a pace and class perspective. I wanted to try and beat her, because her last was not her best and I think the lemon may have been squeezed a bit dry this year, but who in this field could beat her? I don't really believe in Raging Sea, who aside from her pace-aided signature win is not particularly outstanding, and I'm not convinced by Awesome Result either. Shocking, right, that I'm not all over a Japanese contender? But I watched quite a few of her races and still had a hard time evaluating her- she has this measured plodding stride that makes it difficult to judge how fast she's going, and I can't tell how much early foot she actually has. Her last race was great, her previous two were okay, and although she's cutting back in distance here I think that might not actually help her. I'll still use her underneath, because who else am I going to use? But I'll reach for some value with Candied, who might wake up a bit with blinkers on, and Honor D Lady, whose best race makes her somewhat competitive here... with every runner not named Thorpedo Anna.
Thorpedo Anna
Awesome Result/ Honor D Lady/ Candied/ probably some crazy longshot I'm overlooking who will blow the toteboard up
-
Mylute
- Posts: 12071
- Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:20 pm
- Location: within 30 miles of your current location and proceeding rapidly. be warned.
Japan's Remake Good Fit in Breeders' Cup Sprint
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... cup-sprint
There's a few I like in here but I have to pull for Remake because of Lani.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... cup-sprint
There's a few I like in here but I have to pull for Remake because of Lani.
Only user to pick Rich Strike (89-1) in the 2022 Derby Pool Contest. | 2x Greatest Handicapper of All Time (2022 - 23) (2023 - 24) ✧ I kissed I'll Have Another! ✧
-
CoronadosQuest
- Posts: 3659
- Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 7:44 pm
Not that I disagree with you on East Avenue, but I thought I'd point out that if Chancer McPatrick gets into a speed duel with anybody... the rest of the field is all walkingRaise A Native wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 9:49 pm Juvenile
East Avenue is the horse to beat in this race. Impressive in the Futurity and looks nothing short of magnificient when you see him working at Del Mar. I hope he wins, he has a nice looking pedigree and is quite the specimen of a horse too. He's familiar with the distance. I feel like Chancer McPatrick and Jonathan's Way will lock into a speed duel early on, and be too tired to give anything in the home stretch.
He is a deep closer, basically Sierra Leone 2.0, just one who runs in a straight line.-
Tessablue
- Posts: 6542
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
The Turf
I'm pretty bad at this race, so this year I'm just boiling it down to a set of parameters: has this horse shown that they want to run 12f on quick ground? Happily, there are four horses who answer this question with an emphatic "yes." Emily Upjohn stands out as a mare who probably prefers firmer ground but ran Bluestocking to a couple lengths on soft and yielding; Gosden's record in this race is oddly bad, but she's second-favored abroad and I think she gets a comfy early spot with that draw. First-favored is Rebel's Romance, a very cool old globetrotter about whom there is little to question, except for a nagging persistent sense that he just isn't quite up there with the best of Europe. Still, the best of Europe isn't necessarily here, and he merits respect both for his win in this race two years ago and for the fact that he might even be a better horse today.
On the local side of things, Far Bridge figured things out with the jump to 12f this year, and I think he merits a lot of consideration here. He prefers to run inside and may need some maneuvering to get there in this field, but he could end up on the lead or comfortably behind Luxembourg. He was quite good in his last two starts and twice beat an Appleby horse who looked unbeatable at the time; no reason to think he can't do it again here.
And, yes, the fourth horse in my list is yet another from the wildly competitive Japanese contingent. Why not Shahryar here? He hasn't won in a while? So what, turf horses lose all the time. His races at 12f on fast ground are good, and his races under other conditions tend not to be so good. He finished third last year (at 25-1!) against a better field under essentially the same conditions. 10-1 ML? Sure, sign me up! He doesn't have to win to offer plenty of value here.
Lastly, I'll probably find a way to bet Wingspan a little, just based on her name alone and the fact that she went here when she could have gone in the F&M Turf.
Emily Upjohn/ Shahryar/ Far Bridge/ Rebel's Romance
I'm pretty bad at this race, so this year I'm just boiling it down to a set of parameters: has this horse shown that they want to run 12f on quick ground? Happily, there are four horses who answer this question with an emphatic "yes." Emily Upjohn stands out as a mare who probably prefers firmer ground but ran Bluestocking to a couple lengths on soft and yielding; Gosden's record in this race is oddly bad, but she's second-favored abroad and I think she gets a comfy early spot with that draw. First-favored is Rebel's Romance, a very cool old globetrotter about whom there is little to question, except for a nagging persistent sense that he just isn't quite up there with the best of Europe. Still, the best of Europe isn't necessarily here, and he merits respect both for his win in this race two years ago and for the fact that he might even be a better horse today.
On the local side of things, Far Bridge figured things out with the jump to 12f this year, and I think he merits a lot of consideration here. He prefers to run inside and may need some maneuvering to get there in this field, but he could end up on the lead or comfortably behind Luxembourg. He was quite good in his last two starts and twice beat an Appleby horse who looked unbeatable at the time; no reason to think he can't do it again here.
And, yes, the fourth horse in my list is yet another from the wildly competitive Japanese contingent. Why not Shahryar here? He hasn't won in a while? So what, turf horses lose all the time. His races at 12f on fast ground are good, and his races under other conditions tend not to be so good. He finished third last year (at 25-1!) against a better field under essentially the same conditions. 10-1 ML? Sure, sign me up! He doesn't have to win to offer plenty of value here.
Lastly, I'll probably find a way to bet Wingspan a little, just based on her name alone and the fact that she went here when she could have gone in the F&M Turf.
Emily Upjohn/ Shahryar/ Far Bridge/ Rebel's Romance
-
Tessablue
- Posts: 6542
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
The Classic
I've said it before and I'll say it again: I do not understand the hype around City of Troy. From my perspective as an ignorant Yank, here's how his season has progressed (in the words of the European racing media): Extremely disappointing loss --> Good win --> Underwhelming win --> Strong win. So... we're making a horse with zero dirt experience and very limited dirt pedigree (yes, Justify, but yikes look at that damside) the ML favorite in the this Breeders' Cup Classic? Based on what? Two non-disappointing wins and the fact that he showed some speed in a European turf race? I don't understand any of it. I mean, sure, he could win! He clearly has talent, and his stride is only like 75% turfy instead of the 100% it could be. The pace might not be very hot (more on that in a second) and I guess he could just be better than America and Japan's best dirt horses. But at 5/2? At 3-1? He's the underlay to end all underlays, so wildly lacking in value that it wouldn't even feel bad to lose to him.
So. now that that's settled... part of the reason I'm so vehemently against City of Troy's chances here (just his value and his chances! He's a perfectly nice horse!) is because of the quality of this particular race. There are few easy toss-outs here, but there are a lot of very good dirt horses, albeit several who will hope for a fast pace. Will they see one? I... don't know. Maybe City of Troy does have some wheels and takes it to them early. Maybe Arthur's Ride guns it and tries to clear early, leading to a prolonged speed duel with Fierceness. Maybe Forever Young shows some positional speed from the rail and forces the issue a bit. But I just don't see that happening. Mott has said he thinks Arthur should lay off of horses, and perhaps Junior is a bit spooked after what happened in the JCGC. Next simply won't be a pace presence; he wants to go at his natural rhythm, which will likely put him midpack on the outside. Forever Young I think will lay closer than he did in the Derby, but has no desire to lead. And that brings us to...
Fierceness. I don't know that he gets the lead here, but he'll certainly take it if nobody else wants it, and his draw won't force his hand either way. And if Fierceness gets a moderate-to-easy trip in here, isn't that the ballgame? His Travers beats everyone in here, we know he can ship to California with no trouble, his last work was gorgeous, he has a tactical advantage over his main competitors, and he'll be, what, 4-1 again? Forever Young is for sure going to come down off that 6-1 ML, and who knows how much money City of Troy will take. I was thrilled to get 4-1 on Fierceness in the Travers and would be just as happy to see that price here. Yes, I do like him a lot and I'll be rooting for him on the sentimental side of things. But betting is about value, and 4-1 on Fierceness is pretty irresistible value.
As for the others... the problem here, once again, is the pace. I think Sierra Leone is getting lost in the conversation a little, and his race in the Travers would have won plenty of editions of that event. 12-1 is good value on a nice horse who always puts in a run, even if I don't see him as a particular win threat. My main problem with him is that he'll be competing for space with some other good closers, including Tapit Trice and the venerable Ushba Tesoro. I like this horse, and I think he's better this year than he was last year (and he'll have to be, against this significantly better field). His losses this year have been completely forgivable, as he's been up-against it in terms of race shape and distance. I don't know who I prefer between him and Sierra Leone; this may come down to a late call based on how the toteboard looks. Both of them are badly compromised by running style, so I don't think they are major win threats, but that does bring me to another contender with a bit more positional speed...
Forever Young. I resisted betting this horse in the Derby up until a day or two before the race, when a close analysis of his races simply made him impossible to ignore. He did end up running a very strong race in the Derby, though I would argue it was not quite as great as its reputation; his jockey was outridden by Sierra Leone's, and the horses who were near him at the finish haven't tremendously flattered the race (yes, Sierra Leone is really good, but one could argue that zero wins since the Derby constitutes a minor disappointment on his end). Ironically, Book 'em Danno has gone on to flatter Forever Young far more than the Derby winner! And while I liked Forever Young's return race, I didn't love it- he was just a tad on the workmanlike side, though I was happy to see a bit more speed from him early. He'll likely need a bit of here to establish position in the second flight, and if he saves ground and keeps touch with the leaders, I just think he'll be in much better shape turning for home than his compatriot. So, although I don't love him here and think 9/2 or 5-1 offers only moderate value, I don't want to risk underestimating this horse's talent and willingness to win. We know he has plenty of it, and I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do on Saturday.
There are a bunch of other very nice horses in this race, but alas, there are also plenty more races to go. I'm going to stop here because I think Fierceness is the best horse in the race and has a big tactical advantage, Forever Young is the next-best horse with the next-best running style, and a good closer or two is likely to make a dent on the bottom of the exotics. This is truly a race where almost any horse could win (and how amazing would it be if that were Next!), but sometimes you just have to keep things simple and move on to the next one.
Fierceness
Forever Young
Sierra Leone/ Ushba Tesoro
I've said it before and I'll say it again: I do not understand the hype around City of Troy. From my perspective as an ignorant Yank, here's how his season has progressed (in the words of the European racing media): Extremely disappointing loss --> Good win --> Underwhelming win --> Strong win. So... we're making a horse with zero dirt experience and very limited dirt pedigree (yes, Justify, but yikes look at that damside) the ML favorite in the this Breeders' Cup Classic? Based on what? Two non-disappointing wins and the fact that he showed some speed in a European turf race? I don't understand any of it. I mean, sure, he could win! He clearly has talent, and his stride is only like 75% turfy instead of the 100% it could be. The pace might not be very hot (more on that in a second) and I guess he could just be better than America and Japan's best dirt horses. But at 5/2? At 3-1? He's the underlay to end all underlays, so wildly lacking in value that it wouldn't even feel bad to lose to him.
So. now that that's settled... part of the reason I'm so vehemently against City of Troy's chances here (just his value and his chances! He's a perfectly nice horse!) is because of the quality of this particular race. There are few easy toss-outs here, but there are a lot of very good dirt horses, albeit several who will hope for a fast pace. Will they see one? I... don't know. Maybe City of Troy does have some wheels and takes it to them early. Maybe Arthur's Ride guns it and tries to clear early, leading to a prolonged speed duel with Fierceness. Maybe Forever Young shows some positional speed from the rail and forces the issue a bit. But I just don't see that happening. Mott has said he thinks Arthur should lay off of horses, and perhaps Junior is a bit spooked after what happened in the JCGC. Next simply won't be a pace presence; he wants to go at his natural rhythm, which will likely put him midpack on the outside. Forever Young I think will lay closer than he did in the Derby, but has no desire to lead. And that brings us to...
Fierceness. I don't know that he gets the lead here, but he'll certainly take it if nobody else wants it, and his draw won't force his hand either way. And if Fierceness gets a moderate-to-easy trip in here, isn't that the ballgame? His Travers beats everyone in here, we know he can ship to California with no trouble, his last work was gorgeous, he has a tactical advantage over his main competitors, and he'll be, what, 4-1 again? Forever Young is for sure going to come down off that 6-1 ML, and who knows how much money City of Troy will take. I was thrilled to get 4-1 on Fierceness in the Travers and would be just as happy to see that price here. Yes, I do like him a lot and I'll be rooting for him on the sentimental side of things. But betting is about value, and 4-1 on Fierceness is pretty irresistible value.
As for the others... the problem here, once again, is the pace. I think Sierra Leone is getting lost in the conversation a little, and his race in the Travers would have won plenty of editions of that event. 12-1 is good value on a nice horse who always puts in a run, even if I don't see him as a particular win threat. My main problem with him is that he'll be competing for space with some other good closers, including Tapit Trice and the venerable Ushba Tesoro. I like this horse, and I think he's better this year than he was last year (and he'll have to be, against this significantly better field). His losses this year have been completely forgivable, as he's been up-against it in terms of race shape and distance. I don't know who I prefer between him and Sierra Leone; this may come down to a late call based on how the toteboard looks. Both of them are badly compromised by running style, so I don't think they are major win threats, but that does bring me to another contender with a bit more positional speed...
Forever Young. I resisted betting this horse in the Derby up until a day or two before the race, when a close analysis of his races simply made him impossible to ignore. He did end up running a very strong race in the Derby, though I would argue it was not quite as great as its reputation; his jockey was outridden by Sierra Leone's, and the horses who were near him at the finish haven't tremendously flattered the race (yes, Sierra Leone is really good, but one could argue that zero wins since the Derby constitutes a minor disappointment on his end). Ironically, Book 'em Danno has gone on to flatter Forever Young far more than the Derby winner! And while I liked Forever Young's return race, I didn't love it- he was just a tad on the workmanlike side, though I was happy to see a bit more speed from him early. He'll likely need a bit of here to establish position in the second flight, and if he saves ground and keeps touch with the leaders, I just think he'll be in much better shape turning for home than his compatriot. So, although I don't love him here and think 9/2 or 5-1 offers only moderate value, I don't want to risk underestimating this horse's talent and willingness to win. We know he has plenty of it, and I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do on Saturday.
There are a bunch of other very nice horses in this race, but alas, there are also plenty more races to go. I'm going to stop here because I think Fierceness is the best horse in the race and has a big tactical advantage, Forever Young is the next-best horse with the next-best running style, and a good closer or two is likely to make a dent on the bottom of the exotics. This is truly a race where almost any horse could win (and how amazing would it be if that were Next!), but sometimes you just have to keep things simple and move on to the next one.
Fierceness
Forever Young
Sierra Leone/ Ushba Tesoro
-
Tessablue
- Posts: 6542
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
Filly & Mare Turf
So you know all that stuff up above about sentiment and finding value and whatever? Forget about it. I LOVE War Like Goddess. She's wonderful, she's awesome, she gets her favorite distance here, she seems to click with Junior, she's been running great against difficult pace setups throughout 2024, she should have won this race three years ago, she should win this race this year and finally get that championship title she deserves. I'm not going to try and beat her and no horse will have me yelling harder in the stretch, not even Fierceness with my life savings on him.
But all the love in my heart aside, she's also just a very logical contender in here. I don't really like the Appleby filly; just not sure she was beating anyone of this field's quality in those 3yo restricted races, and I think there's a reason why she spent her summer here instead of in Europe. I'm fine with including her underneath because She Feels Pretty did put up that big effort at Keeneland and this field isn't the strongest, but I don't like her at 4-1 and will happily try to beat her with others. The O'Brien filly is nice enough and did beat Emily Upjohn earlier this year on firmer ground, albeit while receiving weight from that rival. She's usable, and I might promote her depending on Emily Upjohn's performance on the turf.
But I really want to focus on the Woodbine mares here. I mentioned earlier that Woodbine turf preps tend to produce big numbers, and I'm intrigued by them not because of the last-out Beyer but because they might just be two very nice mares with decently high odds. Full Count Felicia is stretching out in distance, but she's also the controlling speed... with Irad aboard. I've watched enough New York racing to know that most jockeys have zero idea how to handle pace in turf races- take one of the few who knows what he's doing, put him on a filly who can just blast out there and then lull everyone else to sleep, and... poor War Like Goddess, she must have PTSD from loose-on-the-lead frontrunners at this point. At 12-1 Full Count Felicia is unmissable, but her fellow Woodbine runner Moira merits consideration as well, as a quality mare who ran well in this race last year and picks up one of the only other good turf riders in the country. This is probably too far for her, but the pace scenario might get her across the wire... just a bit behind the Goddess, I would hope!
War Like Goddess
Full Count Felicia/ Moira/ either Content or Cinderalla's Dream (probably the latter)
The Sprint
...so I heard you like pace horses.
Has ever a Breeders' Cup race showed this much early speed on paper? It features Timeform early pace figs of 118, 125, 131, 118, 136, plus Don Frankie who is unrated and has speed as well. The fastest horse in the field- Skelly, who ran a sub-56 5f split earlier this year, tends to break slow and then rush up. He drew the outside post. Now, sometimes a race screams "meltdown" so hard that everyone involved gets cute with it, takes back, and produces more of a... cooldown, if you will. But this race isn't screaming "meltdown" so much as it's emblazoning it across a thousand satellites and beaming it back down onto Earth. I think it's safe to say the pace will be pretty quick.
But wait, isn't Del Mar a speed-favoring racetrack? Shouldn't that mitigate pace concerns in this race? Eh... nah. The past few winners have been closers, granted that Elite Power was an incredible closer. A speed bias can carry a sprinter home (see also: Trinniberg), but it isn't a guarantee, and I think tracks are more conscious of bias than they used to be. So I'm going to focus on a trio of closers here, and in order of how much I like them: Remake, Nakatomi, and Gun Pilot
Yes, Remake, another Japanese horse. It might sound like a parody at this point, but I swear I'm not trying to pick these horses- they're just really good. I don't have any particular interest in the success of different countries at this event, and while I think it would be neat if Japan won a bunch of these races, I wouldn't stake my own money on it unless those horses deserved it. And this year, they really do. These horses are very competitive across the board, and if the Japanese horses earlier in the BC run as well as I think they might, Remake might come down way off that 8-1 ML. But he might still be worth it, because he's a very good horse with a lot of late foot who enjoys 6f and has been competitive with American sprint horses in the past. Nothing complicated! I like him just a tad more than I like Nakatomi, who merits a huge shot in here with his versatile runstyle and bias-impeded prep. I don't love Gun Pilot quite so much, but I think he'll appreciate the cut back to 6f and he'd be a very "well duh" horse if the pace melts down.
As far as those pace horses go, I like Federal Judge to hold on the longest. He's extremely sharp right now and won't have to scramble for position. If the pace fails to develop, I think he has the talent to take major advantage of it here.
Remake/ Nakatomi
Gun Pilot/ Federal Judge
So you know all that stuff up above about sentiment and finding value and whatever? Forget about it. I LOVE War Like Goddess. She's wonderful, she's awesome, she gets her favorite distance here, she seems to click with Junior, she's been running great against difficult pace setups throughout 2024, she should have won this race three years ago, she should win this race this year and finally get that championship title she deserves. I'm not going to try and beat her and no horse will have me yelling harder in the stretch, not even Fierceness with my life savings on him.
But all the love in my heart aside, she's also just a very logical contender in here. I don't really like the Appleby filly; just not sure she was beating anyone of this field's quality in those 3yo restricted races, and I think there's a reason why she spent her summer here instead of in Europe. I'm fine with including her underneath because She Feels Pretty did put up that big effort at Keeneland and this field isn't the strongest, but I don't like her at 4-1 and will happily try to beat her with others. The O'Brien filly is nice enough and did beat Emily Upjohn earlier this year on firmer ground, albeit while receiving weight from that rival. She's usable, and I might promote her depending on Emily Upjohn's performance on the turf.
But I really want to focus on the Woodbine mares here. I mentioned earlier that Woodbine turf preps tend to produce big numbers, and I'm intrigued by them not because of the last-out Beyer but because they might just be two very nice mares with decently high odds. Full Count Felicia is stretching out in distance, but she's also the controlling speed... with Irad aboard. I've watched enough New York racing to know that most jockeys have zero idea how to handle pace in turf races- take one of the few who knows what he's doing, put him on a filly who can just blast out there and then lull everyone else to sleep, and... poor War Like Goddess, she must have PTSD from loose-on-the-lead frontrunners at this point. At 12-1 Full Count Felicia is unmissable, but her fellow Woodbine runner Moira merits consideration as well, as a quality mare who ran well in this race last year and picks up one of the only other good turf riders in the country. This is probably too far for her, but the pace scenario might get her across the wire... just a bit behind the Goddess, I would hope!
War Like Goddess
Full Count Felicia/ Moira/ either Content or Cinderalla's Dream (probably the latter)
The Sprint
...so I heard you like pace horses.
Has ever a Breeders' Cup race showed this much early speed on paper? It features Timeform early pace figs of 118, 125, 131, 118, 136, plus Don Frankie who is unrated and has speed as well. The fastest horse in the field- Skelly, who ran a sub-56 5f split earlier this year, tends to break slow and then rush up. He drew the outside post. Now, sometimes a race screams "meltdown" so hard that everyone involved gets cute with it, takes back, and produces more of a... cooldown, if you will. But this race isn't screaming "meltdown" so much as it's emblazoning it across a thousand satellites and beaming it back down onto Earth. I think it's safe to say the pace will be pretty quick.
But wait, isn't Del Mar a speed-favoring racetrack? Shouldn't that mitigate pace concerns in this race? Eh... nah. The past few winners have been closers, granted that Elite Power was an incredible closer. A speed bias can carry a sprinter home (see also: Trinniberg), but it isn't a guarantee, and I think tracks are more conscious of bias than they used to be. So I'm going to focus on a trio of closers here, and in order of how much I like them: Remake, Nakatomi, and Gun Pilot
Yes, Remake, another Japanese horse. It might sound like a parody at this point, but I swear I'm not trying to pick these horses- they're just really good. I don't have any particular interest in the success of different countries at this event, and while I think it would be neat if Japan won a bunch of these races, I wouldn't stake my own money on it unless those horses deserved it. And this year, they really do. These horses are very competitive across the board, and if the Japanese horses earlier in the BC run as well as I think they might, Remake might come down way off that 8-1 ML. But he might still be worth it, because he's a very good horse with a lot of late foot who enjoys 6f and has been competitive with American sprint horses in the past. Nothing complicated! I like him just a tad more than I like Nakatomi, who merits a huge shot in here with his versatile runstyle and bias-impeded prep. I don't love Gun Pilot quite so much, but I think he'll appreciate the cut back to 6f and he'd be a very "well duh" horse if the pace melts down.
As far as those pace horses go, I like Federal Judge to hold on the longest. He's extremely sharp right now and won't have to scramble for position. If the pace fails to develop, I think he has the talent to take major advantage of it here.
Remake/ Nakatomi
Gun Pilot/ Federal Judge
-
lurkey mclurker
- Posts: 3155
- Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 8:15 pm
no analysis, my brain is too tired
definitely rooting for shahryar & derma sotogake (forever young too but i hate him starting on the rail) & ecoro sieg, would be happy for geoglyph but i dunno (i love ten happy rose too but i don't think so here) and for the girls - american bikini, war like goddess and awesome result/thorpedo anna
hopefully that didn't jinx anybody
definitely rooting for shahryar & derma sotogake (forever young too but i hate him starting on the rail) & ecoro sieg, would be happy for geoglyph but i dunno (i love ten happy rose too but i don't think so here) and for the girls - american bikini, war like goddess and awesome result/thorpedo anna
hopefully that didn't jinx anybody
-
Tessablue
- Posts: 6542
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
Those are a bunch of my favorites too, so any and all jinxing can be blamed on me instead of youlurkey mclurker wrote: ↑Wed Oct 30, 2024 10:24 pm no analysis, my brain is too tired
definitely rooting for shahryar & derma sotogake (forever young too but i hate him starting on the rail) & ecoro sieg, would be happy for geoglyph but i dunno (i love ten happy rose too but i don't think so here) and for the girls - american bikini, war like goddess and awesome result/thorpedo anna
hopefully that didn't jinx anybody
And yeah I think Geoglyph is up against it in here, it's a very strong field (as the Mile always is...) and I think he's just not quite at the level he needs to be. Never say never, though!And speaking of the Mile...
The Mile
This race is a perennial impossibility, but this year I keep getting drawn back to Ramatuelle. Does she prefer having some give in the ground? Maybe. Is she better-suited to 7f than 8f? Probably. But 8f on a firm American surface is more like 7f abroad, and her last race was just so impressive. She didn't look like a soft-course specialist slogging home past the others, she looked like a very nice filly who came into her own and crushed some quality older male opponents. I just love the way she quickened in that race, and while the 1-post is a double-edged sword, I can foresee her unleashing that devastating turn of foot again in the stretch if she saves ground and gets a clear run at them. 3yo fillies have a proud tradition in this race, and I can see either Ramatuelle or her rival Porta Fortuna carrying on that legacy this year. Porta Fortuna loves a mile, adapted to these conditions last year, and may be a bit less brilliant than Ramatuelle at her best but makes up for that deficit in sheer consistency. Porta Fortuna always runs her race, and I see little reason why that streak would break on Saturday.
This is certainly no cakewalk for either of the fillies, however. The home team has some solid contestants this year, headed by Johannes and Carl Spackler. Of the two I strongly prefer Carl Spackler for a number of reasons, one of which is the fact that I generally toss west coast turf horses in non-sprint BC races. This isn't an east coast bias, it's just business: it's been 20 years since the last California-based winner of the Mile, and while no angle is ever 100% correct, it has worked out well enough in the past that I'm not looking to mess with it this year (though do note Thought Process included above, so it isn't ironclad). I just don't think Johannes has been competing against the best this division has to offer, and I think his only advantage over Carl Spackler is his post. Carl is drawn out widest of all and doesn't want to be, but he's a horse can make up for it with some genuine positional speed. He can start, he can finish, and he's been exceptional during the back half of this season. He's a major competitor in this race, and with a better draw I'd probably favor him over Ramatuelle.
Lastly, one of the horses Carl has been beating is More than Looks, who sadly will end up nowhere near that 20-1 ML. Still, he has a wicked turn of foot and still offers intrigue at half that price.
Ramatuelle/ Carl Spackler
Porta Fortuna/ More than Looks
EDIT: The defection of Ramatuelle leaves my ticket in shambles here, as I really loved her in this spot. I'm going to prioritize Carl in horizontals, promote Porta Fortuna, and then promote Chili Flag to an underneath spot. She's a nice consistent mare who gets Brown/ Irad and will be overlooked in the betting, and I just don't really like anyone else in here.
Carl Spackler/ Porta Fortuna
More than Looks/ Chili Flag
Last edited by Tessablue on Fri Nov 01, 2024 1:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
-
Tessablue
- Posts: 6542
- Joined: Sat Nov 09, 2019 7:05 pm
The Dirt Mile
The Breeders' Cup concludes with what might be the most inscrutable race across the two days. Do you want 9/2 on a 3yo who was beaten 17 lengths in his last start and was all-out to defeat Indispensable two back? Do you want 5-1 on a horse who was 7-1 in the Classic last year but was last seen defeating a horse named, checks notes, Injunction? How about 7/2 on a 3yo whose connections have been extremely upfront about the fact that he is probably best around one turn? Can I interest you in a Classic-winning 3yo whose best trip is a pipe dream and who will surely be bet down from 10-1 by his legion of owners? Also there's a Japanese horse who was beaten 60 lengths in his last start but almost ran away with his only American start and could contribute to a gigantic meltdown if he hooks up with the rail horse to his inside?
Yeah man, I don't know... I think this is really a "pick your favorites" race, because you could make a case for betting each of these horses just as easily as you could make a case for tossing them. The only horse I really like in this race was Skippylongstocking, but he drew the dreaded 14 and might end up caught wide chasing a fast pace. I just have to hope that Irad is better than that, because otherwise Skippy has a lot going for him here. He's a versatile old warrior who tends to punch above his weight in races that he looks overmatched in. He wasn't amazing in this race last year, but he's improved since then and will likely appreciate the cutback from his very competitive Woodward effort. He's a bit quirky to ride, but he's a fairly versatile horse who should be able to tuck in behind what might be an absolutely wicked pace. I like him, and I hope the outside post scares some people away from him.
Between all the 3yos, the only one I particularly like is Domestic Product. I don't think this race is perfect for him- he probably is better around one turn- but I think he has more to give than Seize the Grey (whom I can't see running his best race under these conditions) or Muth (whom I think is done). Domestic Product's last two races were just too good to overlook, although the superstitious part of me keeps thinking back to my analysis of him from before the Derby. I said that I expected him to mirror his sire's career very closely, and so far that has proven almost eerily prescient. Practical Joke ran an okayish fourth in this race seven years ago, and honestly, an okayish fourth sounds about right for Domestic Product as well.
I'm not sure who runs an okayish second or third, though. I'd like to find a presser who can finish going two turns, and that leaves me with... oh hey, I forgot that Cagliostro drew in! Perfect! He gave Classic contender Highland Falls all he could handle going two turns earlier this year, then had a horrendous nightmare trip in the Forego before finishing a forgivable third in the slop at Churchill. As a horse with back class who can handle both two turns and a potential pace meltdown, he's exactly the kind of horse I want to bet in here. That 30-1 ML is a little mean, though. He's more likely to end up at 15-1.
As the last horse I'll mention for this year's event, I'll give some love to Three Technique, a personal favorite from way back who can never quite be discounted. Nobody would enjoy a pace meltdown more than this old guy, and I'd love to see him hit the board at a huge price for his improbable connections. His best race could get him there, even if his best races are often difficult to predict.
Skippylongstocking/ Cagliostro
Domestic Product/ Three Technique
Whew. Now I'm going to get some rest, and wait for all of these horses to scratch. Please feel free to let me know how bad these picks are, and may they all come home safe!
The Breeders' Cup concludes with what might be the most inscrutable race across the two days. Do you want 9/2 on a 3yo who was beaten 17 lengths in his last start and was all-out to defeat Indispensable two back? Do you want 5-1 on a horse who was 7-1 in the Classic last year but was last seen defeating a horse named, checks notes, Injunction? How about 7/2 on a 3yo whose connections have been extremely upfront about the fact that he is probably best around one turn? Can I interest you in a Classic-winning 3yo whose best trip is a pipe dream and who will surely be bet down from 10-1 by his legion of owners? Also there's a Japanese horse who was beaten 60 lengths in his last start but almost ran away with his only American start and could contribute to a gigantic meltdown if he hooks up with the rail horse to his inside?
Yeah man, I don't know... I think this is really a "pick your favorites" race, because you could make a case for betting each of these horses just as easily as you could make a case for tossing them. The only horse I really like in this race was Skippylongstocking, but he drew the dreaded 14 and might end up caught wide chasing a fast pace. I just have to hope that Irad is better than that, because otherwise Skippy has a lot going for him here. He's a versatile old warrior who tends to punch above his weight in races that he looks overmatched in. He wasn't amazing in this race last year, but he's improved since then and will likely appreciate the cutback from his very competitive Woodward effort. He's a bit quirky to ride, but he's a fairly versatile horse who should be able to tuck in behind what might be an absolutely wicked pace. I like him, and I hope the outside post scares some people away from him.
Between all the 3yos, the only one I particularly like is Domestic Product. I don't think this race is perfect for him- he probably is better around one turn- but I think he has more to give than Seize the Grey (whom I can't see running his best race under these conditions) or Muth (whom I think is done). Domestic Product's last two races were just too good to overlook, although the superstitious part of me keeps thinking back to my analysis of him from before the Derby. I said that I expected him to mirror his sire's career very closely, and so far that has proven almost eerily prescient. Practical Joke ran an okayish fourth in this race seven years ago, and honestly, an okayish fourth sounds about right for Domestic Product as well.
I'm not sure who runs an okayish second or third, though. I'd like to find a presser who can finish going two turns, and that leaves me with... oh hey, I forgot that Cagliostro drew in! Perfect! He gave Classic contender Highland Falls all he could handle going two turns earlier this year, then had a horrendous nightmare trip in the Forego before finishing a forgivable third in the slop at Churchill. As a horse with back class who can handle both two turns and a potential pace meltdown, he's exactly the kind of horse I want to bet in here. That 30-1 ML is a little mean, though. He's more likely to end up at 15-1.
As the last horse I'll mention for this year's event, I'll give some love to Three Technique, a personal favorite from way back who can never quite be discounted. Nobody would enjoy a pace meltdown more than this old guy, and I'd love to see him hit the board at a huge price for his improbable connections. His best race could get him there, even if his best races are often difficult to predict.
Skippylongstocking/ Cagliostro
Domestic Product/ Three Technique
Whew. Now I'm going to get some rest, and wait for all of these horses to scratch. Please feel free to let me know how bad these picks are, and may they all come home safe!