Horse Racing Forum - USA Thoroughbred Races

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 4:57 pm**

I was discussing with a friend about who could be the HOY since the Travers happened, I was thinking that Thorpedo Anna would be better than Fierceness or Dornoch. TA this year has scored 4 GS, 3 of which are G1's, plus the 2nd place in the Travers against Fierceness (by a head), who only this year has 3 GS, 2 of which are G1's. TA has an almost perfect record. I think at the end of the year for HOY it comes down TA, Fierceness, and Dornoch. I forgot to mention Dornoch has one the same exact amount and type of GS this year as Fierceness. I know it's still too far to tell, but I just wanted to talk about it.

Posted: **Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:25 pm**

Yeah....IF voters weren't so biased toward male runners.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 10:30 am**

BaroqueAgain1 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:25 pm Yeah....IF voters weren't so biased toward male runners.

Unfortunately, she had to beat the boys for it to be cemented.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 10:42 am**

MAYBE if Dornoch and Fierceness bomb at the BC while 'Anna wins the Cotillion and blows them away in the Distaff. OR in some other alternate universe...TA wins the BCC. Which in this universe I could see her hitting the board but based on the "contenders" listed on the BC website, I don't know if she could win outright.

I'm having trouble picking out the best of the other divisions.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 10:46 am**

Mylute wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 10:42 am MAYBE if Dornoch and Fierceness bomb at the BC while 'Anna wins the Cotillion and blows them away in the Distaff. OR in some other alternate universe...TA wins the BCC. Which in this universe I could see her hitting the board but based on the "contenders" listed on the BC website, I don't know if she could win outright.

I'm having trouble picking out the best of the other divisions.

Rooting for champ 3yr old male Dornoch and 3yr old fily TA (as well as HOY)!

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:14 pm**

othybat_99 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 4:57 pm I was discussing with a friend about who could be the HOY since the Travers happened, I was thinking that Thorpedo Anna would be better than Fierceness or Dornoch. TA this year has scored 4 GS, 3 of which are G1's, plus the 2nd place in the Travers against Fierceness (by a nose), who only this year has 3 GS, 2 of which are G1's. TA has an almost perfect record. I think at the end of the year for HOY it comes down TA, Fierceness, and Dornoch. I forgot to mention Dornoch has one the same exact amount and type of GS this year as Fierceness. I think TA has the upper hand for HOY. What are your thoughts?

Adding on, I wanna add my probables of the Eclipse Award winners for horses (not including 2yr olds, add them if you want!):
Horse of the Year: Thorpedo Anna (as someone already said before, as long as there is no bias toward males)
3yr old Colt: Dornoch
3yr old Filly: Thorpedo Anna
Older Dirt Male: The Chosen Vron
Older Dirt Female: Idiomatic
Male Sprinter: Mullikin
Female Sprinter: IDK
Note: I am not good with the sprinters, Grass, or steeplechase horses, bear with me please

The margin between 1st and 2nd in the Travers was not a nose. Fierceness was much the best that day. His only fault is inconsistency which may be a thing of the past. He’s the best horse I’ve seen this year. I’m a little confused as to how The Chosen Vron could be the Champion Older Dirt Male and not Champion Sprinter. Explain how that works. Thanks for trying to create a discussion but with the BC over a month away it’s kind of like reviewing a book without having read the last chapter.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:20 pm**

Curtis wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:14 pm
othybat_99 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 4:57 pm I was discussing with a friend about who could be the HOY since the Travers happened, I was thinking that Thorpedo Anna would be better than Fierceness or Dornoch. TA this year has scored 4 GS, 3 of which are G1's, plus the 2nd place in the Travers against Fierceness (by a nose), who only this year has 3 GS, 2 of which are G1's. TA has an almost perfect record. I think at the end of the year for HOY it comes down TA, Fierceness, and Dornoch. I forgot to mention Dornoch has one the same exact amount and type of GS this year as Fierceness. I think TA has the upper hand for HOY. What are your thoughts?

Adding on, I wanna add my probables of the Eclipse Award winners for horses (not including 2yr olds, add them if you want!):
Horse of the Year: Thorpedo Anna (as someone already said before, as long as there is no bias toward males)
3yr old Colt: Dornoch
3yr old Filly: Thorpedo Anna
Older Dirt Male: The Chosen Vron
Older Dirt Female: Idiomatic
Male Sprinter: Mullikin
Female Sprinter: IDK
Note: I am not good with the sprinters, Grass, or steeplechase horses, bear with me please
The margin between 1st and 2nd in the Travers was not a nose. Fierceness was much the best that day. His only fault is inconsistency which may be a thing of the past. He’s the best horse I’ve seen this year. I’m a little confused as to how The Chosen Vron could be the Champion Older Dirt Male and not Champion Sprinter. Explain how that works. Thanks for trying to create a discussion but with the BC over a month away it’s kind of like reviewing a book without having read the last chapter.

Thanks, I didn't know really because I am kinda new to racing, so I didn't know The Chosen Vron was a sprinter, or that the travers wasn't by a nose. I also know these probables aren't probably right at all, but I wanted to share.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:36 pm**

othybat_99 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:20 pm
Curtis wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:14 pm
othybat_99 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 4:57 pm I was discussing with a friend about who could be the HOY since the Travers happened, I was thinking that Thorpedo Anna would be better than Fierceness or Dornoch. TA this year has scored 4 GS, 3 of which are G1's, plus the 2nd place in the Travers against Fierceness (by a nose), who only this year has 3 GS, 2 of which are G1's. TA has an almost perfect record. I think at the end of the year for HOY it comes down TA, Fierceness, and Dornoch. I forgot to mention Dornoch has one the same exact amount and type of GS this year as Fierceness. I think TA has the upper hand for HOY. What are your thoughts?

Adding on, I wanna add my probables of the Eclipse Award winners for horses (not including 2yr olds, add them if you want!):
Horse of the Year: Thorpedo Anna (as someone already said before, as long as there is no bias toward males)
3yr old Colt: Dornoch
3yr old Filly: Thorpedo Anna
Older Dirt Male: The Chosen Vron
Older Dirt Female: Idiomatic
Male Sprinter: Mullikin
Female Sprinter: IDK
Note: I am not good with the sprinters, Grass, or steeplechase horses, bear with me please
The margin between 1st and 2nd in the Travers was not a nose. Fierceness was much the best that day. His only fault is inconsistency which may be a thing of the past. He’s the best horse I’ve seen this year. I’m a little confused as to how The Chosen Vron could be the Champion Older Dirt Male and not Champion Sprinter. Explain how that works. Thanks for trying to create a discussion but with the BC over a month away it’s kind of like reviewing a book without having read the last chapter.
Thanks, I didn't know really because I am kinda new to racing, so I didn't know The Chosen Vron was a sprinter, or that the travers wasn't by a nose. I also know these probables aren't probably right at all, but I wanted to share.

Nothing wrong with that. If confusion and self inflicted dysfunction doesn’t bother you, racing can be a wonderful sport. Welcome to the fray.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 2:47 pm**

othybat_99 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:20 pm
Curtis wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:14 pm
othybat_99 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 4:57 pm I was discussing with a friend about who could be the HOY since the Travers happened, I was thinking that Thorpedo Anna would be better than Fierceness or Dornoch. TA this year has scored 4 GS, 3 of which are G1's, plus the 2nd place in the Travers against Fierceness (by a nose), who only this year has 3 GS, 2 of which are G1's. TA has an almost perfect record. I think at the end of the year for HOY it comes down TA, Fierceness, and Dornoch. I forgot to mention Dornoch has one the same exact amount and type of GS this year as Fierceness. I think TA has the upper hand for HOY. What are your thoughts?

Adding on, I wanna add my probables of the Eclipse Award winners for horses (not including 2yr olds, add them if you want!):
Horse of the Year: Thorpedo Anna (as someone already said before, as long as there is no bias toward males)
3yr old Colt: Dornoch
3yr old Filly: Thorpedo Anna
Older Dirt Male: The Chosen Vron
Older Dirt Female: Idiomatic
Male Sprinter: Mullikin
Female Sprinter: IDK
Note: I am not good with the sprinters, Grass, or steeplechase horses, bear with me please
The margin between 1st and 2nd in the Travers was not a nose. Fierceness was much the best that day. His only fault is inconsistency which may be a thing of the past. He’s the best horse I’ve seen this year. I’m a little confused as to how The Chosen Vron could be the Champion Older Dirt Male and not Champion Sprinter. Explain how that works. Thanks for trying to create a discussion but with the BC over a month away it’s kind of like reviewing a book without having read the last chapter.
Thanks, I didn't know really because I am kinda new to racing, so I didn't know The Chosen Vron was a sprinter, or that the travers wasn't by a nose. I also know these probables aren't probably right at all, but I wanted to share.

You an look up horses and their race records at http://www.equibase.com if you would like detailed information about them.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 3:29 pm**

Cigarillo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 10:30 am
BaroqueAgain1 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:25 pm Yeah....IF voters weren't so biased toward male runners.
Unfortunately, she had to beat the boys for it to be cemented.

You know, there's something about that quote that's always bothered me a little bit, specifically about Zenyatta but now including Thorpedo Anna. It's not very far from that comment to say "she couldn't beat the boys" (on dirt in the case of Zenyatta and just generally in the case of Thorpedo Anna).

Maybe I'm applying too literal an interpretation of that statement, but I don't believe it's true for either distaffer. 14 years ago, Zenyatta did in fact beat 10 of the 11 boys she faced in the BC Classic on dirt, and only finished a head behind the one that DID beat her. A little less than one month ago, Thorpedo Anna had 7 boys line up against her in the Travers and she beat all but one of them, finishing just a head behind that one as well.

I think it's just disingenuous to say that a filly or mare "couldn't beat the boys" when, in the case of those two, they clearly did, all except for one opponent each in a very important GI stakes race. Like I said, perhaps too literal a meaning, but one I choose to apply.

By the way, this is not directed personally at Cigarillo's comment as written. It just reminded me of that annoying mantra of "she couldn't beat the boys", that's all.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 4:00 pm**

"Beat" is just shorthand for "win against." Fierceness and Anna are 1-2 in the NTRA rankings; if she had won, they would surely be reversed right now. But if you lose to the top-ranked horse on the square, you cannot become the top-ranked horse. That's all there really is to it.

I still think there's still a good chance that Anna wins HOTY. If Fierceness loses the Classic (which is certainly possible) but she wins the Distaff, odds are pretty good. If they both lose, it'll all be context-dependent. Maybe she runs a close second and he tanks, maybe they both tank and a horse like Cogburn or Next (who might run in the BC) swoops in for the award instead. Vibes matter way more than G1s these days... and that actually helps Anna. I think there's an argument to be made that female horses are more popular and thus actually more likely to receive support for HOTY.

At the moment, though, it's Fierceness in the driver's seat. Why wouldn't it be?

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 4:30 pm**

Missbeholder wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 3:29 pm
Cigarillo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 10:30 am
BaroqueAgain1 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:25 pm Yeah....IF voters weren't so biased toward male runners.
Unfortunately, she had to beat the boys for it to be cemented.
You know, there's something about that quote that's always bothered me a little bit, specifically about Zenyatta but now including Thorpedo Anna. It's not very far from that comment to say "she couldn't beat the boys" (on dirt in the case of Zenyatta and just generally in the case of Thorpedo Anna).

Maybe I'm applying too literal an interpretation of that statement, but I don't believe it's true for either distaffer. 14 years ago, Zenyatta did in fact beat 10 of the 11 boys she faced in the BC Classic on dirt, and only finished a head behind the one that DID beat her. A little less than one month ago, Thorpedo Anna had 7 boys line up against her in the Travers and she beat all but one of them, finishing just a head behind that one as well.

I think it's just disingenuous to say that a filly or mare "couldn't beat the boys" when, in the case of those two, they clearly did, all except for one opponent each in a very important GI stakes race. Like I said, perhaps too literal a meaning, but one I choose to apply.

By the way, this is not directed personally at Cigarillo's comment as written. It just reminded me of that annoying mantra of "she couldn't beat the boys", that's all.

My statement was a reflection of the overall view of voters because they'll hold it against her.

I think if she wins the Distaff and Fierceness is soundly beaten in the Classic, then she has a strong chance and I'd predict she'd win the honors.

Edit: I agree she did in fact beat the boys, just not that boy. And they'll use that tilt against her.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 6:05 pm**

Missbeholder wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 3:29 pm
Cigarillo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 10:30 am
BaroqueAgain1 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2024 6:25 pm Yeah....IF voters weren't so biased toward male runners.
Unfortunately, she had to beat the boys for it to be cemented.
You know, there's something about that quote that's always bothered me a little bit, specifically about Zenyatta but now including Thorpedo Anna. It's not very far from that comment to say "she couldn't beat the boys" (on dirt in the case of Zenyatta and just generally in the case of Thorpedo Anna).

Maybe I'm applying too literal an interpretation of that statement, but I don't believe it's true for either distaffer. 14 years ago, Zenyatta did in fact beat 10 of the 11 boys she faced in the BC Classic on dirt, and only finished a head behind the one that DID beat her. A little less than one month ago, Thorpedo Anna had 7 boys line up against her in the Travers and she beat all but one of them, finishing just a head behind that one as well.

I think it's just disingenuous to say that a filly or mare "couldn't beat the boys" when, in the case of those two, they clearly did, all except for one opponent each in a very important GI stakes race. Like I said, perhaps too literal a meaning, but one I choose to apply.

By the way, this is not directed personally at Cigarillo's comment as written. It just reminded me of that annoying mantra of "she couldn't beat the boys", that's all.

For me 2010 is when “Horse of the Year” jumped the shark. Mike Smith might as well been wearing a leather jacket giving the thumbs up sign. Going into the BC Classic the two favorites for the award were clearly Zenyatta and Blame. Both Lookin’ at Lucky and Quality Road had a puncher’s chance. It was all set up for the award to be settled on the track. The top two, got advantageous trips and one beat the other and the horse that lost was given the award. Why have the horses race? Just have them run time trials. After that, I really don’t pay much attention to year end awards, it’s become too much about popularity and extraneous factors.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 6:54 pm**

Curtis wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:14 pm
The margin between 1st and 2nd in the Travers was not a nose. Fierceness was much the best that day. His only fault is inconsistency which may be a thing of the past. He’s the best horse I’ve seen this year. I’m a little confused as to how The Chosen Vron could be the Champion Older Dirt Male and not Champion Sprinter. Explain how that works. Thanks for trying to create a discussion but with the BC over a month away it’s kind of like reviewing a book without having read the last chapter.

OK, I'll bite. How exactly was Fierceness "much the best that day?"

Not sure how anyone has decided Championships before the BC has been run, by the way. Also, Horse of the Year became a popularity contest when Zenyatta was preposterously given the title over Blame. Then again, someone in this thread said there's a bias towards male horses in the voting. I need to be careful, sometimes, not to read this board while drinking. That was quite a hoot.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 7:01 pm**

thinair wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 6:54 pm
Curtis wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:14 pm
The margin between 1st and 2nd in the Travers was not a nose. Fierceness was much the best that day. His only fault is inconsistency which may be a thing of the past. He’s the best horse I’ve seen this year. I’m a little confused as to how The Chosen Vron could be the Champion Older Dirt Male and not Champion Sprinter. Explain how that works. Thanks for trying to create a discussion but with the BC over a month away it’s kind of like reviewing a book without having read the last chapter.

Zenyatta was preposterously given the title over Blame.

i'm such a Zenyatta fan that i have a tattoo for her, but i just could not understand how she won that award.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 8:42 pm**

thinair wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 6:54 pm
Curtis wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:14 pm
The margin between 1st and 2nd in the Travers was not a nose. Fierceness was much the best that day. His only fault is inconsistency which may be a thing of the past. He’s the best horse I’ve seen this year. I’m a little confused as to how The Chosen Vron could be the Champion Older Dirt Male and not Champion Sprinter. Explain how that works. Thanks for trying to create a discussion but with the BC over a month away it’s kind of like reviewing a book without having read the last chapter.

OK, I'll bite. How exactly was Fierceness "much the best that day?"

Not sure how anyone has decided Championships before the BC has been run, by the way. Also, Horse of the Year became a popularity contest when Zenyatta was preposterously given the title over Blame. Then again, someone in this thread said there's a bias towards male horses in the voting. I need to be careful, sometimes, not to read this board while drinking. That was quite a hoot.

Ask JV, he rode him that way.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 9:18 pm**

Curtis wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 8:42 pm
thinair wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 6:54 pm
Curtis wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:14 pm
The margin between 1st and 2nd in the Travers was not a nose. Fierceness was much the best that day. His only fault is inconsistency which may be a thing of the past. He’s the best horse I’ve seen this year. I’m a little confused as to how The Chosen Vron could be the Champion Older Dirt Male and not Champion Sprinter. Explain how that works. Thanks for trying to create a discussion but with the BC over a month away it’s kind of like reviewing a book without having read the last chapter.

OK, I'll bite. How exactly was Fierceness "much the best that day?"

Not sure how anyone has decided Championships before the BC has been run, by the way. Also, Horse of the Year became a popularity contest when Zenyatta was preposterously given the title over Blame. Then again, someone in this thread said there's a bias towards male horses in the voting. I need to be careful, sometimes, not to read this board while drinking. That was quite a hoot.
Ask JV, he rode him that way.

That's not an answer.

Fierceness had his dream trip. Not sure how you could say he ran much better than a horse he beat by an inch.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 9:59 pm**

thinair wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 9:18 pm
Curtis wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 8:42 pm
thinair wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 6:54 pm

OK, I'll bite. How exactly was Fierceness "much the best that day?"

Not sure how anyone has decided Championships before the BC has been run, by the way. Also, Horse of the Year became a popularity contest when Zenyatta was preposterously given the title over Blame. Then again, someone in this thread said there's a bias towards male horses in the voting. I need to be careful, sometimes, not to read this board while drinking. That was quite a hoot.
Ask JV, he rode him that way.
That's not an answer.

Fierceness had his dream trip. Not sure how you could say he ran much better than a horse he beat by an inch.

My answer wasn’t verbose but I think the rides were the key. Fierceness was ridden like the best horse, Thorpedo Anna was babied along and gained late after the race was pretty much over. Fierceness did get his dream trip however it’s not an ideal trip in that it’s not the type of trip you’d craft for a horse if you had your druthers, running wide, giving ground, etc. in my opinion, to win at that level, running how Fierceness wants to run, he can’t be just a bit better but a lot better. It’s okay to disagree, the sport is based on disagreement. If there were no disagreements, roughly 33% of the winners would pay $2.10 and the rest nothing. The margin of victory wasn’t indicative of the confidence with which Fierceness was ridden. The margin was more than an inch. I think had they gone around again he still wins. She ran great but he was better. I can tell you don’t agree but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 10:35 pm**

We disagree. I am more than confident if you switched the posts, the filly would have won. I'm also confident that if they "went around again" he might have made the super, but he surely would have lost to both the filly and Sierra Leone. I find the "could have gone around again" argument to be nonsensical. It means nothing and surely can never be proven. You're a smart guy, so I'm guessing you know that.

Unfortunately, Fierceness will only have one more chance to show people he is capable of running well when everything doesn't go exactly perfectly for him. Stalking outside in moderate paces is a wonderful trip for the faint hearted. He has had more than his share of those. If pace shows up in the Classic, good luck to him. If he draws inside, with pace in the race, no wishes of good luck can save him. He's a tremendously talented horse who has shown, so far, to not be able to overcome the slightest bit of adversity. To Honor and Serve Part Deux. But at least To Honor and Serve ran as a 4YO.

Posted: **Thu Sep 19, 2024 11:20 pm**

She ended up in a beautiful rail pocket while he got the classic "best horse" ride and gave up 3-4 lengths of ground. Switch trips and it's hard to see how she finishes better with the additional ground loss, whereas he has literally never run inside horses, so who knows? Maybe he runs even better, maybe they both finish behind Sierra Leone. I don't think To Honor and Serve could have run a 111 going 10f with a head start, but hey, I'm just glad Fierceness has finally beaten the "needs the lead" allegations. Baby steps!

RE: HOTY, I just now think of it as the top-level horse who defined the year. 2010 was a makeup call for 2009, which could have credibly been a shared award, but for better or worse Blame is just not the horse people remember best from that year. Same goes for Justify vs. Accelerate and Cody's Wish vs. White Abarrio. Should the award be based on vibes instead of objective achievements? Eh, I don't know, but reframing it in that way has really helped me stop caring about it so much. I only have so much outrage to spare, and must portion it judiciously.

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