Horse Racing Forum - USA Thoroughbred Races

I think Seize the Grey was going to send either way, but with the long run to the first turn I don't think post position matters all that much here. Mindframe might have to work for position a little, but I think he's better off being kept a bit outside than pressured inside.

Haven't handicapped the race fully yet, but 10-1 ML on Resilience is just too good. He's the perfect horse for this race--forward but not too forward, rested, improving, working great, ran a huge race with a wide trip in the Derby but will be overlooked here in favor of others. Sierra Leone makes sense as the favorite, but will likely move lower than his ML, plus his drifting is still a concern and you just don't really want a deep closer going 10f at Saratoga. I don't think the pace will be slow, but those second-flight horses are going to have an advantage here.

Probably not attending the race; I have GA tickets, but my mom can't travel and I'd rather spend the weekend with her above all else. Actually really looking forward to watching it on America's Day at the Races--I've never seen their Belmont coverage, but I'm sure it will be fantastic, and I hope everyone who attends has an awesome day! Nowhere is better for racing fans than Saratoga.

Squeaky wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 6:50 pm

CoronadosQuest wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 5:35 pm

Squeaky wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 5:31 pm Not sure what to think about a rail trip for STG. He will likely send or risk getting shuffled back and pinned down.

Yea I am a bit nervous about him being in post position 1, especially with Dornoch and Mindframe (if he goes to the lead) on the outside of him

Hope he can make it the outside a bit if he tracks them just off the pace

Me too, I hope he breaks clean and doesn't get boxed in on the rail. Would be nice to see him replicate Arrogate's Travers, as Arrogate was also in the 1 post for that race!

feelin' bad that all i can think is how i hope SL doesn't lug in again.

Obviously lacking experience, but with big Beyers 97 and 103 just how good is Mindframe?

What odds do you think he'll be?

I hope this is wrong because I will be rooting for him but some on X/Twitter saying that Grey looks a bit tired in his gallops and that the “ over-racing” and “over-training” is catching up with him.

Thinair picks Resilience

Squeaky wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 12:26 pm I hope this is wrong because I will be rooting for him but some on X/Twitter saying that Grey looks a bit tired in his gallops and that the “ over-racing” and “over-training” is catching up with him.

Who are the “some”?

Squeaky wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:30 pm Thinair picks Resilience

When Andy speaks....people listen.

2 Resilience
9 Sierra Leone
8 Honor Marie
3 Mystic Dan

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ETvduTc2m8

Squeaky wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:30 pm Thinair picks Resilience

Excellent, now I know who to blame if he comes down off that morning line

I think it will be an excellent betting race with Mindframe (talented but way too big of an ask) and Sierra Leone (horse to beat but some fairly significant question marks and a disadvantageous runstyle) soaking up a ton of money. Seize the Grey is likely to take a lot of money as well, but I can't imagine him matching his Preakness under these circumstances, and he'll need to if he wants to win.

Resilience is just irresistible value, but I think there are some other potential overlays here as well. 5-1 is actually decent value on Mystik Dan, a horse who probably doesn't love 10f but has proven quality and possesses an advantageous runstyle. Honor Marie is totally usable at 12-1; if you think Sierra Leone is going to get his pace (and it's possible, though I'm not certain of it), you have to like Honor Marie here as well. Lastly, I sort of like Protective as a wild longshot underneath. I didn't like the Peter Pan as a prep overall, but this guy had to wait a little, has a good distance pedigree, and could probably clunk up for fourth if the pace falls apart.

Squeaky wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 12:26 pm I hope this is wrong because I will be rooting for him but some on X/Twitter saying that Grey looks a bit tired in his gallops and that the “ over-racing” and “over-training” is catching up with him.

From DRF's Mike Welsch:

....Seize the Grey, whose energy level has been high on a regular basis despite the fact he’ll be making his third start in a five-week span on Saturday.

Seize The Grey: Has come a long way in a short time. Logic dictates he’s supposed to regress off a career-best effort in Preakness, although he has not trained like a tired horse, by any means, since shipping here from Kentucky.

https://www.drf.com/news/2024-belmont-s ... 0-entrants

Wonder if Resilience will get the 10 furlongs... even Mott sounded unconvinced after the Derby.

Not sure who I like best in here but I'm not sold on Sierra Leone. New bit, new jock; old bad habits... + the Graveyard of Favorites.

I wish Forever Young was still stateside.

Come on Grey! Antiquarian second choice.

MINDFRAME

The thing most professional handicappers didn't like was the short price of 7/2 on the morning line.

Well.....in the early betting he's floated up to 8/1, hmmmm.

Off Lasix.

Great Beyer Speed Figures.

Lack of experience.

Outside post.

Sounds like a bet to me in a wide open race.

The win pool is all screwed up because of the MyRacehorse people betting on Seize the Grey (he opened at like 4/5). Mindframe is still the second choice in exactas with Sierra Leone and a very clear second choice in doubles with Thorpedo Anna. Sierra Leone is getting absolutely hammered in that double and could be close to odds-on in the horizontals.

Fast and firm to start Friday's card! And weather looks good for tomorrow. Looking forward to some great racing.

Hopefully Repole doesn't bet as much as MRH

Tessablue wrote: ↑Fri Jun 07, 2024 11:51 am The win pool is all screwed up because of the MyRacehorse people betting on Seize the Grey (he opened at like 4/5). Mindframe is still the second choice in exactas with Sierra Leone and a very clear second choice in doubles with Thorpedo Anna. Sierra Leone is getting absolutely hammered in that double and could be close to odds-on in the horizontals.

Fast and firm to start Friday's card! And weather looks good for tomorrow. Looking forward to some great racing.

Yea, the MRH STG owner group has been screaming and ranting about being "disrespected by everyone" for three weeks now whenever anybody even dares mention another horse winning the Belmont that isn't STG, I swear. They want to be even money favorite or something, I dunno.

Starine wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:52 pm + the Graveyard of Favorites.

Part of that moniker is the big sandy and wide sweeping turns at Belmont and doing it at 12F.

None of which applies to a shortened race on the completely diff. SAR track however.

Squeaky wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 12:26 pm I hope this is wrong because I will be rooting for him but some on X/Twitter saying that Grey looks a bit tired in his gallops and that the “ over-racing” and “over-training” is catching up with him.

Horse ran 2 graded stakes in May.

Also in May, Lukas worked him 6F in 1:13 for this race now..

Guess he didnt think stg was fit enough.

I was worried about just steel before the preakness. Know i wasnt the only one.

My Belmont choices are, and I don’t care about order:

Sierra Leone
Antiquarian
Mystik Dan

I’m more excited to see the big mare, Idiomatic, out there.

Safe day for all!

MySaladDays wrote: ↑Fri Jun 07, 2024 8:26 pm

Starine wrote: ↑Thu Jun 06, 2024 7:52 pm + the Graveyard of Favorites.

Part of that moniker is the big sandy and wide sweeping turns at Belmont and doing it at 12F.

None of which applies to a shortened race on the completely diff. SAR track however.

Actually Saratoga is the "Graveyard of Favorites." See Man o' War, Secretariat, American Pharoah, et al.