Horse of the Year

[thinair]

She ended up in a beautiful rail pocket while he got the classic "best horse" ride and gave up 3-4 lengths of ground. Switch trips and it's hard to see how she finishes better with the additional ground loss, whereas he has literally never run inside horses, so who knows? Maybe he runs even better, maybe they both finish behind Sierra Leone. I don't think To Honor and Serve could have run a 111 going 10f with a head start, but hey, I'm just glad Fierceness has finally beaten the "needs the lead" allegations. Baby steps!

RE: HOTY, I just now think of it as the top-level horse who defined the year. 2010 was a makeup call for 2009, which could have credibly been a shared award, but for better or worse Blame is just not the horse people remember best from that year. Same goes for Justify vs. Accelerate and Cody's Wish vs. White Abarrio. Should the award be based on vibes instead of objective achievements? Eh, I don't know, but reframing it in that way has really helped me stop caring about it so much. I only have so much outrage to spare, and must portion it judiciously.

You think Fierceness would have been comfortable rating behind horses? What in his career suggests that? Ground loss is tricky, and it's certainly not just a question of distance covered. There was a reason his connections were thrilled with his draws in the Jim Dandy and Travers. They sure didn't seem worried about ground loss. They were, however, likely concerned with him taking dirt, or being pressed from the outside. To Honor and Serve beat Mucho Macho Man in the Woodward. When things went his own way, he was capable of very good things, much like Fierceness. I never said he was faster than Fierceness, I just suggested he was a Grade 1 horse when everything went his way...much like Fierceness.

Fierceness is supremely talented. No sane person has ever denied that. However, he has yet to show that talent under anything but his preferred circumstances. It's kind of hard to realistically argue against that.

[Tessablue]

I wouldn't argue that he's proven he can handle rating inside, I just don't think there's enough information to make a definitive call either way. He got strong in the Holy Bull, but that was off a layoff with a jostled break and some quarterhorsing from his jockey, and he was outside horses that day. He was uncomfortable from the start in the Champagne, and although he spent a few strides inside horses in that race he wasn't close to the rail and didn't seem to get strong from it (in fact he might have even come off the bridle a little). In the Derby he was up widest on a very strong pace, and, well, it's the Derby. He's been very handy in his other starts, and while the connections definitely want him wide, couldn't that be because they want to keep him away from any trip nonsense and know he's good enough to compensate for the ground loss? And I know it's not as simple as feet = lengths, but I would argue that for a lot of horses, going 3W3W in a 10f race against very good opponents (while giving one of them weight, which I guess some people think makes a difference) would constitute a less-than-ideal circumstance.

I just think that broadly speaking, he isn't quite getting the credit he deserves for his Travers win, and I don't know if another horse transposed into his trip could run the race that he did. The draw is certainly a huge and interesting question mark in the Classic, but if he draws inside and is consequently overlooked in the betting, does he end up actually offering some value despite being the undisputed most talented (dirt) horse in the race? That's what I'm wondering while rewatching his races... I understand distrusting him, but I just think there's enough ambiguity in his prior efforts to leave the door open, and even if he does end up hating the inside, isn't there still an off chance that he gets some kind of Beholder's Pacific Classic trip behind Arthur's Ride and company? Getting ahead of things here, but I'm already dreaming about how much money City of Troy is going to take

(To Honor and Serve was a neat horse, I liked him, but it never did feel like he lived up to his potential. My immediate thought for a "talented but folds under pressure" horse is Irish War Cry, although at this point I can't honestly remember if it's justified or not)

[Curtis]

We disagree. I am more than confident if you switched the posts, the filly would have won. I'm also confident that if they "went around again" he might have made the super, but he surely would have lost to both the filly and Sierra Leone. I find the "could have gone around again" argument to be nonsensical. It means nothing and surely can never be proven. You're a smart guy, so I'm guessing you know that.

Unfortunately, Fierceness will only have one more chance to show people he is capable of running well when everything doesn't go exactly perfectly for him. Stalking outside in moderate paces is a wonderful trip for the faint hearted. He has had more than his share of those. If pace shows up in the Classic, good luck to him. If he draws inside, with pace in the race, no wishes of good luck can save him. He's a tremendously talented horse who has shown, so far, to not be able to overcome the slightest bit of adversity. To Honor and Serve Part Deux. But at least To Honor and Serve ran as a 4YO.

If I’m smart enough to know the ramifications of stating Fierceness would have won had they gone around again, you’re smart enough to know a head is longer than an inch. Fierceness is still considered green. He’s just now putting two winning races together. We’ll never probably see his best as he’ll become a stallion after the BC. As far as the post position draw? If ifs and buts were candy and nuts……

[thinair]

We disagree. I am more than confident if you switched the posts, the filly would have won. I'm also confident that if they "went around again" he might have made the super, but he surely would have lost to both the filly and Sierra Leone. I find the "could have gone around again" argument to be nonsensical. It means nothing and surely can never be proven. You're a smart guy, so I'm guessing you know that.

Unfortunately, Fierceness will only have one more chance to show people he is capable of running well when everything doesn't go exactly perfectly for him. Stalking outside in moderate paces is a wonderful trip for the faint hearted. He has had more than his share of those. If pace shows up in the Classic, good luck to him. If he draws inside, with pace in the race, no wishes of good luck can save him. He's a tremendously talented horse who has shown, so far, to not be able to overcome the slightest bit of adversity. To Honor and Serve Part Deux. But at least To Honor and Serve ran as a 4YO.

If I’m smart enough to know the ramifications of stating Fierceness would have won had they gone around again, you’re smart enough to know a head is longer than an inch. Fierceness is still considered green. He’s just now putting two winning races together. We’ll never probably see his best as he’ll become a stallion after the BC. As far as the post position draw? If ifs and buts were candy and nuts……

Who considers him green? He's about to make his final start. Now his best stuff will be after he retires?

The "If ifs and buts" was superfluous. I think I already got the gist.

[othybat_99]

McPeek: Thorpedo Anna could be Horse of Year with BC Distaff victory
https://www.drf.com/news/mcpeek-thorped ... ff-victory

[Curtis]

We disagree. I am more than confident if you switched the posts, the filly would have won. I'm also confident that if they "went around again" he might have made the super, but he surely would have lost to both the filly and Sierra Leone. I find the "could have gone around again" argument to be nonsensical. It means nothing and surely can never be proven. You're a smart guy, so I'm guessing you know that.

Unfortunately, Fierceness will only have one more chance to show people he is capable of running well when everything doesn't go exactly perfectly for him. Stalking outside in moderate paces is a wonderful trip for the faint hearted. He has had more than his share of those. If pace shows up in the Classic, good luck to him. If he draws inside, with pace in the race, no wishes of good luck can save him. He's a tremendously talented horse who has shown, so far, to not be able to overcome the slightest bit of adversity. To Honor and Serve Part Deux. But at least To Honor and Serve ran as a 4YO.

If I’m smart enough to know the ramifications of stating Fierceness would have won had they gone around again, you’re smart enough to know a head is longer than an inch. Fierceness is still considered green. He’s just now putting two winning races together. We’ll never probably see his best as he’ll become a stallion after the BC. As far as the post position draw? If ifs and buts were candy and nuts……

Who considers him green? He's about to make his final start. Now his best stuff will be after he retires?

The "If ifs and buts" was superfluous. I think I already got the gist.

I’m out on this after this. In my opinion, the way for Thorpedo Anna to beat Fierceness on Travers Day was to beat him to the stretch call, similar to how Swiss Skydiver beat Authentic in the Preakness. Neither colt—in their then current states of development—were proven to be able to pass horses in the stretch at that level. Thorpedo Anna either didn’t—most likely—or couldn’t. Had Hernandez ridden her that way, he runs the risk that Sierra Leone becomes Keen Ice. And yes, it’s all relative but good 3yo’s nowadays are green and pretty much retire that way. They don’t run enough to not be. The “she lost by an inch” is just propagating a myth. It was the same margin that Blame beat Zenyatta. I’m just a Yahoo on a board that 12 people read, you go on social media and are on TV. This all started because someone learning the game stated that the margin was “only a nose”. One of the worst beats of my life was by an inch. The reading of the photo took so long, many thought it could have been a dead heat. The guy sitting behind me showed me a $50. win ticket he had on the horse that beat mine, saw my ticket and said, “Dude, I never thought I’d ever say this but I hope I lose that photo”. Had it been a head, I may have slept that week. The horse on which I bet was named “Something Cheerful” so I guess I shoulda’ known better. You keep saying I’m giving examples of things that can’t be proven yet flatly state that if the post positions were reversed the results would be different. Prove it, I respect your opinion but again it’s ifs and buts. As my aunt used to tell me, if she had two testicles I’d have called her uncle.

[thinair]

I’m out on this after this. In my opinion, the way for Thorpedo Anna to beat Fierceness on Travers Day was to beat him to the stretch call, similar to how Swiss Skydiver beat Authentic in the Preakness. Neither colt—in their then current states of development—were proven to be able to pass horses in the stretch at that level. Thorpedo Anna either didn’t—most likely—or couldn’t. Had Hernandez ridden her that way, he runs the risk that Sierra Leone becomes Keen Ice. And yes, it’s all relative but good 3yo’s nowadays are green and pretty much retire that way. They don’t run enough to not be. The “she lost by an inch” is just propagating a myth. It was the same margin that Blame beat Zenyatta. I’m just a Yahoo on a board that 12 people read, you go on social media and are on TV. This all started because someone learning the game stated that the margin was “only a nose”. One of the worst beats of my life was by an inch. The reading of the photo took so long, many thought it could have been a dead heat. The guy sitting behind me showed me a $50. win ticket he had on the horse that beat mine, saw my ticket and said, “Dude, I never thought I’d ever say this but I hope I lose that photo”. Had it been a head, I may have slept that week. The horse on which I bet was named “Something Cheerful” so I guess I shoulda’ known better. You keep saying I’m giving examples of things that can’t be proven yet flatly state that if the post positions were reversed the results would be different. Prove it, I respect your opinion but again it’s ifs and buts. As my aunt used to tell me, if she had two testicles I’d have called her uncle.

We aren't even having a discussion. This is, once again, a whole lot of words not really defending your argument.

So, we agree Blame was more than a head better than Zenyatta in the Classic? I can't tell.

Post race analysis is usually "ifs and but" but it's also based on a lifetime, which you seem to have as well, of watching races and horses, and how they react to different situations. Your argument seems to me, to be based a lot more on what you want to believe, than what actually happened. We all do this to a certain extent. I just don't feel like the original argument that Fierceness was somehow much better than Thorpedo Anna has been defended. I agree they both got perfect trips, and being that Fierceness has run faster races than her in the past, there is some validity to the argument that he's better. The problem is that she won the Oaks and Acorn while engaged in fast paces with very good horses, both of which she torched ( one hasn't even been seen since, Just FYI, and the other won a Grade 1 two races later ) while winning impressively. She has proven repeatedly that she overcomes race dynamics, something most horses cannot do, while he has proven over and over again that he needs everything to go his way.

It's been fun:-)

[Izvestia]

McPeek: Thorpedo Anna could be Horse of Year with BC Distaff victory
https://www.drf.com/news/mcpeek-thorped ... ff-victory

That’s if she beats the big mares AND some rando wins the Classic or whatever other voters thinks is better than female horses.

[Curtis]

I’m out on this after this. In my opinion, the way for Thorpedo Anna to beat Fierceness on Travers Day was to beat him to the stretch call, similar to how Swiss Skydiver beat Authentic in the Preakness. Neither colt—in their then current states of development—were proven to be able to pass horses in the stretch at that level. Thorpedo Anna either didn’t—most likely—or couldn’t. Had Hernandez ridden her that way, he runs the risk that Sierra Leone becomes Keen Ice. And yes, it’s all relative but good 3yo’s nowadays are green and pretty much retire that way. They don’t run enough to not be. The “she lost by an inch” is just propagating a myth. It was the same margin that Blame beat Zenyatta. I’m just a Yahoo on a board that 12 people read, you go on social media and are on TV. This all started because someone learning the game stated that the margin was “only a nose”. One of the worst beats of my life was by an inch. The reading of the photo took so long, many thought it could have been a dead heat. The guy sitting behind me showed me a $50. win ticket he had on the horse that beat mine, saw my ticket and said, “Dude, I never thought I’d ever say this but I hope I lose that photo”. Had it been a head, I may have slept that week. The horse on which I bet was named “Something Cheerful” so I guess I shoulda’ known better. You keep saying I’m giving examples of things that can’t be proven yet flatly state that if the post positions were reversed the results would be different. Prove it, I respect your opinion but again it’s ifs and buts. As my aunt used to tell me, if she had two testicles I’d have called her uncle.

We aren't even having a discussion. This is, once again, a whole lot of words not really defending your argument.

So, we agree Blame was more than a head better than Zenyatta in the Classic? I can't tell.

Post race analysis is usually "ifs and but" but it's also based on a lifetime, which you seem to have as well, of watching races and horses, and how they react to different situations. Your argument seems to me, to be based a lot more on what you want to believe, than what actually happened. We all do this to a certain extent. I just don't feel like the original argument that Fierceness was somehow much better than Thorpedo Anna has been defended. I agree they both got perfect trips, and being that Fierceness has run faster races than her in the past, there is some validity to the argument that he's better. The problem is that she won the Oaks and Acorn while engaged in fast paces with very good horses, both of which she torched ( one hasn't even been seen since, Just FYI, and the other won a Grade 1 two races later ) while winning impressively. She has proven repeatedly that she overcomes race dynamics, something most horses cannot do, while he has proven over and over again that he needs everything to go his way.

It's been fun:-)

I’m out on the Travers but yes Blame was more than a head better than Zenyatta. Also Thorpedo Anna was better than the margin implied on Saturday.

[Tessablue]

I would argue that there needs to an "assuming Fierceness doesn't win the Classic" clause in Kenny's statement, but he also said this before the Cotillon:

“The winner ran huge. He was the best horse, he ran more ground than we did,”

so I defer to his omniscient wisdom

[thinair]

I’m out on the Travers but yes Blame was more than a head better than Zenyatta. Also Thorpedo Anna was better than the margin implied on Saturday.

She was? Based on her second straight perfect trip?

By the way, I sort of agree Fierceness ran a better race than she did, but it's mitigated by him getting the kind of trip he needs to win, whereas she is adaptable, and unlike him she has shown the ability to overcome adversity, so while I think he is naturally more talented, I don't have same respect for his talents that I do for hers, if that makes sense. I don't love horses that are only really good when things go their own way. Fierceness is a bit like the basketball player that scores 25 ppg for a bad team but can't help a good team win.

[thinair]

I would argue that there needs to an "assuming Fierceness doesn't win the Classic" clause in Kenny's statement, but he also said this before the Cotillon:

“The winner ran huge. He was the best horse, he ran more ground than we did,”

so I defer to his omniscient wisdom

You're WAY too smart to take a trainer's opinion as gospel:-)

Trainers are married to the sheets, or Thorograph, so they are also married to ground loss being the be all and end all.

[Tessablue]

I would argue that there needs to an "assuming Fierceness doesn't win the Classic" clause in Kenny's statement, but he also said this before the Cotillon:

“The winner ran huge. He was the best horse, he ran more ground than we did,”

so I defer to his omniscient wisdom

You're WAY too smart to take a trainer's opinion as gospel:-)

Trainers are married to the sheets, or Thorograph, so they are also married to ground loss being the be all and end all.

Sorry, can't hear you, too busy rounding up my life savings so I can bet them on Classic Causeway when he shows up in the Melbourne Cup or whatever

[Curtis]

I’m out on the Travers but yes Blame was more than a head better than Zenyatta. Also Thorpedo Anna was better than the margin implied on Saturday.

She was? Based on her second straight perfect trip?

By the way, I sort of agree Fierceness ran a better race than she did, but it's mitigated by him getting the kind of trip he needs to win, whereas she is adaptable, and unlike him she has shown the ability to overcome adversity, so while I think he is naturally more talented, I don't have same respect for his talents that I do for hers, if that makes sense. I don't love horses that are only really good when things go their own way. Fierceness is a bit like the basketball player that scores 25 ppg for a bad team but can't help a good team win.

I believe Fierceness has a higher ceiling than you do but because of the business side, he trains more than he runs so as to not get beat. Having taught HS, girls mature faster than boys. I think horses can get perfect trips because their ability allows it. Turning for home she was being confidently ridden. Maybe that was false confidence and maybe it was the ol’ gotta leave some in the tank mentality, but I think she was the best filly. Hey to hope to get value for my $2, I bet Tarifa.

[stark]

Maybe we could have a battle of sexes updated race for the horses!
Shouldn't be any discussion about post positions and trips or other horses running interference etc.

https://youtu.be/us2wcE7O22I

[Curtis]

Maybe we could have a battle of sexes updated race for the horses!
Shouldn't be any discussion about post positions and trips or other horses running interference etc.

https://youtu.be/us2wcE7O22I

That musta’ been before Baffert taught ‘em to re-break at the 1/8th pole. Maybe Julie got it mixed up with brake.

[stark]

Who is #1?

Who voted?

How did they vote?

https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... ceness_123

[Tessablue]

Forget Fierceness, I want to know how on earth three people ranked National Treasure in first.

[Curtis]

Forget Fierceness, I want to know how on earth three people ranked National Treasure in first.

Show Me the Money!

[stark]

Forget Fierceness, I want to know how on earth three people ranked National Treasure in first.

Show Me the Money!

I'm a little concerned how Barry Abrams got a vote?
And I thought Jon White retired from horse racing?