2024 Three Year Olds

[Tessablue]

Fierceness had a far worse trip than the winner, who could not have had an easier time of it, but he really should have been good enough there. Sometimes horses run hot-and-cold at Gulfstream, but he seems to be a horse who really needs things to go his way.

I'm guessing the rail was pretty good in the Southwest. Big fan of the wildly unfashionable pedigree on the Withers winner. And I suppose the Baffert could be the best horse out there, but he was 1-10, and how often do these flashy Bafferts even make it to the spring classics? Wasn't Arabian Knight a sure thing in the Preakness like, exactly one year ago? I guess Nysos has a significant better stride than that horse, at least.

[Flanders]

Now wondering if he got his name before he was gelded

Yes. He sold at the 2023 OBS Spring Sale (he went through on April 28th) as a colt and was named that same day.

Maybe he didnt' want to get on the trailer...

Maybe I'm seeing something that really isn't there. But to me, his star kind of looks like Hades from the Disney Hercules movie. The flame hair, the toothy smile. Anyone else?
https://photos.bloodhorse.com/AtTheRace ... /i-hnf3R3D

[Mylute]

First World War (War Front) won the Kitten's Joy (G3) over the cleverly-named Hammerstein (by Oscar Performance). Hammerstein is owned/bred by the Ammermans.

FWW was on the Derby trail at one point and may still be.

[stark]

105 BSF for Nysos, very nice.

[CoronadosQuest]

105 BSF for Nysos
101 BSF for Mystik Dan
85 BSF for Hades
84 BSF for Uncle Heavy
84 BSF for First World War

[Izvestia]

Question about these numbers. It seems like year after year, California has higher numbers. Does anyone track this? Am I imagining things?

[stelladaniella]

Yes. He sold at the 2023 OBS Spring Sale (he went through on April 28th) as a colt and was named that same day.

Maybe he didnt' want to get on the trailer...

Maybe I'm seeing something that really isn't there. But to me, his star kind of looks like Hades from the Disney Hercules movie. The flame hair, the toothy smile. Anyone else?
https://photos.bloodhorse.com/AtTheRace ... /i-hnf3R3D

It really does. I couldn't figure out what it reminded me of until I saw your post.
Speaking of horses whose stars look like something, Daredevil (sire of Swiss Skydiver and Shedaresthedevil) has a star that looks like a goose with its neck stretched out real far.

[Curtis]

Maybe he didnt' want to get on the trailer...

Maybe I'm seeing something that really isn't there. But to me, his star kind of looks like Hades from the Disney Hercules movie. The flame hair, the toothy smile. Anyone else?
https://photos.bloodhorse.com/AtTheRace ... /i-hnf3R3D

It really does. I couldn't figure out what it reminded me of until I saw your post.
Speaking of horses whose stars look like something, Daredevil (sire of Swiss Skydiver and Shedaresthedevil) has a star that looks like a goose with its neck stretched out real far.

It was many, many years ago but some of the older so. CA folk might remember a nice Gary Jones trainee named The Medic. He had a white marking on his forehead that looked like the AMA logo. He was named by his first owner and Jones claimed him when the horse was a maiden for a client that was coincidentally an MD. The client liked the name. After the claim was made and his blinkers were removed, the mark was evident.

[CoronadosQuest]

Question about these numbers. It seems like year after year, California has higher numbers. Does anyone track this? Am I imagining things?

It does seem like the California 3yos always run pretty fast numbers. These are the equibase numbers

Nysos - 115
Mystic Dan - 110
Hades - 95
Uncle Heavy - 95
First World War - 85

[Curtis]

Question about these numbers. It seems like year after year, California has higher numbers. Does anyone track this? Am I imagining things?

It does seem like the California 3yos always run pretty fast numbers. These are the equibase numbers

Nysos - 115
Mystic Dan - 110
Hades - 95
Uncle Heavy - 95
First World War - 85

It’s been my experience that small fields+dominate winner =big number.

[Izvestia]

Question about these numbers. It seems like year after year, California has higher numbers. Does anyone track this? Am I imagining things?

It does seem like the California 3yos always run pretty fast numbers. These are the equibase numbers

Nysos - 115
Mystic Dan - 110
Hades - 95
Uncle Heavy - 95
First World War - 85

It’s been my experience that small fields+dominate winner =big number.

Ok, that makes sense. And generally, CA has smaller fields.

[brunanas]

in Brazil, Orla de Ipanema (Agnes Gold) won the Gr. I GP Henrique Possolo, the opening leg of the Triple Tiara. she was named Champion 2yo Filly last year.

[brunanas]

Monanfan (Drosselmeyer) took the GP Estado do Rio de Janeiro, the first leg of the Triple Crown, in a thrilling finish! very exciting race. he is a full-brother to multiple Canadian champion Filo di Arianna and a ½ to Culo e Camicia (Agnes Gold), who won the 2nd leg of the Brazilian Triple Crown in 2021.

[Tessablue]

I don't really have the time or energy to go through the numbers directly, but yes, the Santa Anita Derby routinely post the highest prep BSF or somewhere near it. Lots of reasons why this could be the case, and this does not always translate into later success, but sometimes the numbers don't agree- Roadster, for example, was given a 98 BSF but a considerably lower Timeform figure.

It seems everyone is in agreement that Nysos was quite fast yesterday, however. He seems like a pretty complete horse at a young age, but it's hard not to think of Mastery, Nadal, Charlatan, Life is Good, etc...

[Curtis]

It does seem like the California 3yos always run pretty fast numbers. These are the equibase numbers

Nysos - 115
Mystic Dan - 110
Hades - 95
Uncle Heavy - 95
First World War - 85

It’s been my experience that small fields+dominate winner =big number.

Ok, that makes sense. And generally, CA has smaller fields.

When horses can dictate the race, they’re in their comfort zone and will run a big number. Also, despite the efforts of Team Beyer, Ragozin, etc., it’s not as straightforward comparing track to track as they want to make one believe but the idea of speed figures does make the comparison easier to see, if not comprehend. The best example of what you’re describing is the 1979 Derby Trail. Comparing the raw times of Spectacular Bid to Flying Paster seemed to really favor the latter. The times weren’t close. Santa Anita, though, was much faster than Hialeah, Gulfstream and Keeneland. Also, most of the better 3yo’s out west avoided Flying Paster. At scale weights, he was head and shoulders superior to those he was facing. There were a few nice colts but they either avoided him—Golden Act—or were later bloomers—Beau’s Eagle, Valdez and Relaunch. I was in HS at the time and when Flying Paster went to Churchill Downs and Pimlico and Spectacular Bid swatted him like a cat does to a mouse, it was an education. I learned more that winter and spring than all 4 years of HS.

[Curtis]

I don't really have the time or energy to go through the numbers directly, but yes, the Santa Anita Derby routinely post the highest prep BSF or somewhere near it. Lots of reasons why this could be the case, and this does not always translate into later success, but sometimes the numbers don't agree- Roadster, for example, was given a 98 BSF but a considerably lower Timeform figure.

It seems everyone is in agreement that Nysos was quite fast yesterday, however. He seems like a pretty complete horse at a young age, but it's hard not to think of Mastery, Nadal, Charlatan, Life is Good, etc...

Nysos will either hold up to it or he won’t. I think Authentic might be a better comparison, though. There’s no reason to get Nysos all gussied up for May’s first Saturday since he’ll have no place to go. While Authentic did compete in the Derby, it was Labor Day Weekend. Going from the Santa Anita Derby to the Preakness, if that’s the chosen route, will be easier on him and he won’t need to be cranked as tight as Baffert has those others. Arabian Knight’s action is so poor, he’s always a race to race proposition.

[Squeaky]

Is Arabian Knight retired?

[brunanas]

Is Arabian Knight retired?

no. just resting. at least he was supposed to race again this year.

[Missbeholder]

Question about these numbers. It seems like year after year, California has higher numbers. Does anyone track this? Am I imagining things?

It does seem like the California 3yos always run pretty fast numbers. These are the equibase numbers

Nysos - 115
Mystic Dan - 110
Hades - 95
Uncle Heavy - 95
First World War - 85

I don't know if this has anything to do with the price of tea in China, but it may be helpful to remember that workouts are labeled differently on the west coast tracks than they are east of the big river. Almost all works in California are described by DRF's official clocker as "handily" while the same predominant percentage on eastern tracks are called "breezing". As a matter of fact, if a work out here in CA gets labeled "breezing", people have a tendency to really take notice of it because it's so rare!

And it doesn't seem to matter who the trainer is. Baffert is always said to turn the screws on his horses in workouts more than others. He may get faster times a lot, but "handily" is hardly reserved for him. That description is applied to everybody! Just a thought!

[Tessablue]

Is Arabian Knight retired?

No official retirement announcement, but he hasn't worked since the BC and I can't find any updates. Honestly, his action is so bad that I'm surprised he even made it to the BC last year.

Nysos will either hold up to it or he won’t. I think Authentic might be a better comparison, though. There’s no reason to get Nysos all gussied up for May’s first Saturday since he’ll have no place to go. While Authentic did compete in the Derby, it was Labor Day Weekend. Going from the Santa Anita Derby to the Preakness, if that’s the chosen route, will be easier on him and he won’t need to be cranked as tight as Baffert has those others. Arabian Knight’s action is so poor, he’s always a race to race proposition.

Authentic feels like a fair comparison, although wasn't he a bit behind the curve mentally at this point? I'm mostly thinking of the people (not so much on here) proclaiming that he's the best horse in the crop and the Derby will need an asterisk without him... long way to go yet, and sometimes horses just don't go on. He was really good yesterday, but sitting in a pocket behind a quick pace set by bad horses is the best trip in horse racing, and we're two years removed from Messier winning the same race by 15 with a similar figure. I suppose "it's February and we've already determined the best horse in the crop" is slightly less annoying than "it's February and we've already decided the crop is irredeemable," however!